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View Poll Results: What are the chances of the Chiefs making the playoffs in 2010?
100% (It's a lock baby!) 11 5.42%
90% 4 1.97%
80% 14 6.90%
70% 41 20.20%
60% 40 19.70%
50% (It could go either way.) 53 26.11%
40% 21 10.34%
30% 14 6.90%
20% 3 1.48%
10% 2 0.99%
0% (The momentum is about to burst - aka KnowMo's option.) 0 0%
Gaz would be proud - we have a defense again! 0 0%
Voters: 203. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 09-27-2010, 01:54 PM  
DaFace DaFace is offline
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What are the chances we make the playoffs in 2010?
Since I don't have a game to make a probability poll about this week, we'll test the waters of ChiefsPlanet with regard to THIS YEAR's playoff chances.
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Old 09-27-2010, 06:37 PM   #31
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Thinking about 70%....purely winning the division, do not believe we stand a chance any other way.
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Old 09-27-2010, 06:41 PM   #32
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I voted 40% (but honestly now that I'm thinking about it I may go 30%), I haven't looked at your guys schedule enough to give a real accurate opinion though. No offense but I wouldn't be too surprised if you guys pull a Denver and just start sucking
I wouldn't be too surprised if Drew Brees' eczema scar slowly morphed into a vagina over the course of the season; then Glenn Dorsey ****ed it mercilessly in the SUPERBOWL.
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Old 09-27-2010, 06:44 PM   #33
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I voted 70%....division is there for the taking as San Diego is beyond Jekyll and Hyde right now and we're off to a great start.

I can't wait for these next two games...litmus test just to see how far we've come.
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Old 09-27-2010, 06:50 PM   #34
GEAUX SAINTS GEAUX SAINTS is offline
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I wouldn't be too surprised if Drew Brees' eczema scar slowly morphed into a vagina over the course of the season; then Glenn Dorsey ****ed it mercilessly in the SUPERBOWL.
Because Glenn Dorsey is such a world beater with his 2.5 career sacks.

I'm rooting for you guys to make the playoffs, I just don't trust Cassel and I'm not sure how you guys'll do further into the season when other teams are seeing you as legitimate threat.
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Old 09-27-2010, 07:00 PM   #35
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Wow, I was surprised how high my estimate turned out. I used my software after roughly ranking the teams in 5 groups. Power ratings are the the same for each team in each group. This is my gut feel of how things will shake out (in terms of team strength) by the end of the season. I then simulated the season 5000 times, applied the tiebreakers etc.

I came out with a 67% chance of us making the playoffs. Win probability graph in the next post.

Group 1 (elite)
IND, NO ,PHI, PIT

Group 2 (next level down)
SD, DAL, NE, NYJ, GB, HOU, TEN, BAL

Group 3 (middle of the road)
CIN, MIA, SEA, KC, NYG, ATL, CHI, MIN

Group 4 (starting to stink)
DEN, OAK, SF, JAX, TB, CAR, WAS, ARI

Group 5 (stink, stank, stunk)
BUF, STL, DET, CLE
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Old 09-27-2010, 07:05 PM   #36
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I guess the AFC West is contractually obligated to send someone.
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Old 09-27-2010, 07:06 PM   #37
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Below is a bar graph showing the probability of winning x games. In the red shaded regions we make the playoffs. In the gray shaded regions we don't.
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Old 09-27-2010, 07:15 PM   #38
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Below is a bar graph showing the probability of winning x games. In the red shaded regions we make the playoffs. In the gray shaded regions we don't.
Huh. 10-11 wins would be pure insanity IMO, but with our schedule, I suppose it's possible. Still, not gonna hold my breath.
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Old 09-27-2010, 07:17 PM   #39
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Old 09-27-2010, 07:17 PM   #40
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before the season started i had the chiefs at 10-6,right now i have the chiefs at 12-4 the colts own us,texans will be tough so there two loses. but the rest of the schedule 11 games the chiefs should win 9 out of 11
Damn. You're a definite "glass is half full" person.
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Old 09-27-2010, 07:28 PM   #41
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Huh. 10-11 wins would be pure insanity IMO, but with our schedule, I suppose it's possible. Still, not gonna hold my breath.
Yeah, the individual game odds for the Chiefs didn't look right. I moved some of the sliders to where I thought they should be. It shifted the distribution a full game to the left and dropped our playoff chances to about 45%, which I feel is about right.
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Old 09-27-2010, 07:34 PM   #42
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Yeah, the individual game odds for the Chiefs didn't look right. I moved some of the sliders to where I thought they should be. It shifted the distribution a full game to the left and dropped our playoff chances to about 45%, which I feel is about right.
Sounds about right to me.
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Old 09-27-2010, 07:39 PM   #43
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It won't be as a wildcard. The only way is to win the west.
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Old 09-27-2010, 08:10 PM   #44
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I don't think we have a good feel for this season yet, though. You have seasons that'll fluctuate... like last year, where you had teams undefeated deep into the season and 2-3 totally dominant teams. Then other seasons where there are good teams, but things are a lot more leveled out.

Just like a couple years ago when the Titans had the best record in the AFC... or the year the Broncos had a first round bye with Plummer. Or that year the Raiders went to the SB. Honestly so far it feels more like one of those seasons than one like last year where there are 2-3 super dominant teams. Too early to say though.
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Old 09-27-2010, 08:25 PM   #45
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I don't think we have a good feel for this season yet, though. You have seasons that'll fluctuate... like last year, where you had teams undefeated deep into the season and 2-3 totally dominant teams. Then other seasons where there are good teams, but things are a lot more leveled out.

Just like a couple years ago when the Titans had the best record in the AFC... or the year the Broncos had a first round bye with Plummer. Or that year the Raiders went to the SB. Honestly so far it feels more like one of those seasons than one like last year where there are 2-3 super dominant teams. Too early to say though.
It's definitely like that, but the thing is, I feel like we are going to win against teams we should beat. We aren't contenders yet, but we have a great chance to make the POs with this schedule.
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