Royals (New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository - Page 32

duncan_idaho · 08-15-2013, 08:13 AM

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

**LoneWolf** · 09-04-2013, 07:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat

Nate Bukaty is strongly alluding this morning on 810 that Hosmer is playing hurt. He's not saying it directly, but I think he is trying to protect clubhouse secrets he knows that he's not supposed to say.

And what injury does he say Hosmer is playing through. I haven't seen anything in his play that indicates he's injured.

duncan_idaho · 09-04-2013, 07:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

True, although we're about to see the AL East pound each other over the next 3-4 weeks. If we finish the sweep and take 2/3 from Detroit, we'll be looking good going to Cleveland...

... Until Ned Yost puts in Tim Collins in a crucial spot against a LH bat rather than going to Will Smith, or Donnie Joseph, and Cleveland lights him up again.

Finished your post.

Prison Bitch · 09-04-2013, 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

... Until Ned Yost puts in Tim Collins in a crucial spot against a LH bat rather than going to Will Smith, or Donnie Joseph, and Cleveland lights him up again.

Finished your post.

I notice you rarely bring up Aaron "0.0 WAR" Crow. Who's much worse than Tiny Tim is.

mr. tegu · 09-04-2013, 07:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

So you can make deposits on season tickets for 2014 now. But I can't find anything on what the actual prices might look like. The deposit is non refundable so I don't want to pay it and be stuck paying crazy amounts for tickets. Anyone know what they might be? What are this years prices for the dugout box or the other lower level sections? And do you have to pay to park every game?

Bump. Any thoughts from anyone out there?

Great Expectations · 09-04-2013, 07:46 AM

Elier Hernandez should be moving up the Royals prospect list. He had an OPS of .804 this year as an 18 year old. His OPB increased by .100 over last year and his slugging increased by .168. He also brings a plus glove out in center.

duncan_idaho · 09-04-2013, 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

I notice you rarely bring up Aaron "0.0 WAR" Crow. Who's much worse than Tiny Tim is.

I notice you continue to use Fangraphs' WAR figures for pitchers. They still think Wade Davis is a 1.5 WAR pitcher, BTW.

Crow and Collins have similar peripherals (K and BB rates are nearly the same), but Yost at least uses Crow correctly (against RH heavy groupings). So Crow's overall numbers are a little bit better (133 ERA+, BTW).

Yost refuses to realize that just because Collins is LH doesn't mean he's murder on lefties/tough on lefties, and that the Royals have/have had better options for one tough lefty out all season (though not always present in the majors).

duncan_idaho · 09-04-2013, 07:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

Elier Hernandez should be moving up the Royals prospect list. He had an OPS of .804 this year as an 18 year old. His OPB increased by .100 over last year and his slugging increased by .168. He also brings a plus glove out in center.

Yes. He took a big step in his second year at Idaho Falls.

**Saul Good** · 09-04-2013, 08:00 AM

I don't think Hosmer is hurt. He never gets a day off, so Yost let him DH for one game. Supposedly Billy has dropped 15 pounds. I'm guessing this is the team's way of rewarding him.

Prison Bitch · 09-04-2013, 08:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

So Crow's overall numbers are a little bit better (133 ERA+, BTW).

ERA+ is meaningless for a reliever.

eazyb81 · 09-04-2013, 08:21 AM

According to Baseball Prospectus, we have a 1.2% chance of making the playoffs (up from 0.8% yesterday).

How can we be only 1 game back of Cleveland, yet they have a 12% chance of making the playoffs and we only have a 1% chance?

Texas - 97.0%
Oakland - 95.6%
Tampa - 74.7%
Cleveland - 12.1%
NYY - 10.5%
Baltimore - 9.8%
KC - 1.2%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

siberian khatru · 09-04-2013, 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Yost refuses to realize that just because Collins is LH doesn't mean he's murder on lefties/tough on lefties, and that the Royals have/have had better options for one tough lefty out all season (though not always present in the majors).

Collins has been pretty tough on lefties this year. Smith has been better (in a smaller sample size), but Collins doesn't have that reverse split anymore.

Prison Bitch · 09-04-2013, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eazyb81

According to Baseball Prospectus, we have a 1.2% chance of making the playoffs (up from 0.8% yesterday).

How can we be only 1 game back of Cleveland, yet they have a 12% chance of making the playoffs and we only have a 1% chance?

Texas - 97.0%
Oakland - 95.6%
Tampa - 74.7%
Cleveland - 12.1%
NYY - 10.5%
Baltimore - 9.8%
KC - 1.2%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Prospectus likes their team better statistically for one. For two, they have an easier schedule left.

BWillie · 09-04-2013, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

Collins has been pretty tough on lefties this year. Smith has been better (in a smaller sample size), but Collins doesn't have that reverse split anymore.

You guys look at splits too much in small sample sizes. Splits aren't going to truly converge until like 700 plate appearances etc. A guy can easily have a reverse split in 150 plate appearances, and have a normal split for their career. You need to look at the career numbers, not a snapshot of the last 2 months or so.

Prison Bitch · 09-04-2013, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

You guys look at splits too much in small sample sizes. Splits aren't going to truly converge until like 700 plate appearances etc. A guy can easily have a reverse split in 150 plate appearances, and have a normal split for their career. You need to look at the career numbers, not a snapshot of the last 2 months or so.

Splits are known, proven statistical truths in MLB over 100+ years of playing. It's possible that some buck the trend as you point out, but the vast majority don't so even if you lack a large sample size for ONE player, the larger pool of players will generally lead you to the same conclusions.

duncan_idaho · 09-04-2013, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

Collins has been pretty tough on lefties this year. Smith has been better (in a smaller sample size), but Collins doesn't have that reverse split anymore.

Small sample size, as pointed out.

Also, it's about arsenal. Collins doesn't throw a slider, and that curveball is an easier pitch to put in play in a lefty-on-lefty matchup.

08-15-2013, 08:13 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1200308	(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository New thread, this time with more burst. Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
Posts: 21,201

09-04-2013, 07:46 AM	#470
Great Expectations MVP Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Joplin, MO Casino cash: $13252338	Elier Hernandez should be moving up the Royals prospect list. He had an OPS of .804 this year as an 18 year old. His OPB increased by .100 over last year and his slugging increased by .168. He also brings a plus glove out in center. __________________
Posts: 7,233

09-04-2013, 08:00 AM	#473
Saul Good Quit your bullshit Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Bored of winning Casino cash: $10052799	I don't think Hosmer is hurt. He never gets a day off, so Yost let him DH for one game. Supposedly Billy has dropped 15 pounds. I'm guessing this is the team's way of rewarding him. __________________ Today is not a good day to be a pussy.
Posts: 41,870

09-04-2013, 08:21 AM	#475
eazyb81 The Illuminati Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: the road less traveled Casino cash: $10004900	According to Baseball Prospectus, we have a 1.2% chance of making the playoffs (up from 0.8% yesterday). How can we be only 1 game back of Cleveland, yet they have a 12% chance of making the playoffs and we only have a 1% chance? Texas - 97.0% Oakland - 95.6% Tampa - 74.7% Cleveland - 12.1% NYY - 10.5% Baltimore - 9.8% KC - 1.2% http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
Posts: 12,033