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Old 02-27-2013, 12:45 PM  
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Alex Smith did, does, and will always suck. (part 2)




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Last edited by DaFace; 12-17-2013 at 11:23 AM..
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:14 PM   #526
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Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58 View Post
Ah, good call. But I'm sticking with QB Rating.

You can play like absolute ass, and as long as you don't turn the ball over, your rating doesn't suffer.

Otherwise known as the "Cassel v. Philadelphia Phenomenon, 2009".
I honestly don't really care about Alex Smith's first half of the season. It affects his stats, but I just really don't care about those stats anymore unless he goes back to being checkdown Alex.

It's too small of a sample size to say... it's only really been 4 excellent games, and of course his game against Washington looks a lot better on paper because of the play of Jamaal Charles. But there's no doubt he is playing like a completely different QB.
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:14 PM   #527
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Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry View Post
ESPN's QB rating formula still doesn't think much of Alex's season. He is #20 on it.
That's because they look at advanced metrics to determine a QB's contribution to winning on a play-by-play basis, instead of just saying "TD good/INT bad".
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:15 PM   #528
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Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58 View Post
Wild speculation.

The defense was struggling well before he got hurt.

You're basically giving more weight to the quarter and some change the defense played against SD, and ignoring Keenum, Campbell and Tuel chewing us up.

If you want to play the speculation game, how about, "if we hadn't faced a run of 3rd and 4th string QB's, we would have been 6-3 at the bye"?
That doesn't have much to do with my comment, does it?

28minutes into the SD game, we held them to 3 points...that's the point when Houston went down. Without Houston and Hali, Rivers was able to attack deep and it's obvious to anyone with eyes that our safeties are the weak link to the defense. He proceeded to light them up.

No way do they win if Houston doesn't go down...they won by a hair, anyway.

Same thing against Denver.
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:19 PM   #529
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What is a good metric to use?
I like Football Outsider's DVOA. No metric is ever really perfect but bad metrics are abundant (or misused metrics).
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:20 PM   #530
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Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
That doesn't have much to do with my comment, does it?

28minutes into the SD game, we held them to 3 points...that's the point when Houston went down. Without Houston and Hali, Rivers was able to attack deep and it's obvious to anyone with eyes that our safeties are the weak link to the defense. He proceeded to light them up.

No way do they win if Houston doesn't go down...they won by a hair, anyway.

Same thing against Denver.
We scored what, 10 points up to that point against the Chargers defense, then scored 28 more after? They didn't lose a star player to injury, IIRC.

Why is it impossible to believe SD couldn't have accomplished the same thing with Houston in the game?

You can't tell with any certainty how a game would have played out had "X" happened, or "Y" not happened.

You'd like to think that's how it would have went down, but you'd be a fool to try to claim it as certain.
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:21 PM   #531
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Alex Smiths total QBR of the last 4 games:

79.4
64.6
78.0
90.7

The top 4 total qbrs for the season are

85.7
82.5
74.4
70.3
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:22 PM   #532
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Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58 View Post
We scored what, 10 points up to that point against the Chargers defense, then scored 28 more after? They didn't lose a star player to injury, IIRC.

Why is it impossible to believe SD couldn't have accomplished the same thing with Houston in the game?

You can't tell with any certainty how a game would have played out had "X" happened, or "Y" not happened.

You'd like to think that's how it would have went down, but you'd be a fool to try to claim it as certain.
You can't, but it was clear we were getting a lot of pressure. Remember, we were missing Hali and Houston. Our defensive talent clearly is not good enough to absorb those two massive losses.
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:22 PM   #533
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Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58 View Post
That's because they look at advanced metrics to determine a QB's contribution to winning on a play-by-play basis, instead of just saying "TD good/INT bad".
Which looking at their list, its pretty accurate on the QB rankings for the year.
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:24 PM   #534
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Originally Posted by GOB View Post
I like Football Outsider's DVOA. No metric is ever really perfect but bad metrics are abundant (or misused metrics).
Interesting, considering Alex Smith has a negative DVOA.
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:25 PM   #535
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
Alex Smiths total QBR of the last 4 games:

79.4
64.6
78.0
90.7

The top 4 total qbrs for the season are

85.7
82.5
74.4
70.3
You might want to explain this.
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:27 PM   #536
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Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58 View Post
You might want to explain this.
Josh McCown
Peyton
Rivers
Rodgers
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:27 PM   #537
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Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58 View Post
We scored what, 10 points up to that point against the Chargers defense, then scored 28 more after? They didn't lose a star player to injury, IIRC.

Why is it impossible to believe SD couldn't have accomplished the same thing with Houston in the game?

You can't tell with any certainty how a game would have played out had "X" happened, or "Y" not happened.

You'd like to think that's how it would have went down, but you'd be a fool to try to claim it as certain.
It was 14-3 and right after the 2 minute warning.
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:27 PM   #538
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Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58 View Post
Holy hyperbole, Batman.

I'm assuming the four you're leaving out are Rodgers, Manning, Brady and Brees?

Do you think Carolina would trade Cam Newton straight up for Alex Smith?

Atlanta trade Ryan?

San Diego trade Rivers?

Indy trade Luck?

Seattle trade Wilson?

Hell, we already know the Niners wouldn't take him over Kaepernick.

Should I keep going?

There might be 28 teams that would be "OK" with Alex, but it would be as a backup - there's no way in hell they are choosing him over their current starter.


Exactly my thought.
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:28 PM   #539
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Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry View Post
Which looking at their list, its pretty accurate on the QB rankings for the year.
He's 22nd in Football Outsiders DVOA metric, with a negative rating - which means a below average contribution to winning.
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:29 PM   #540
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Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry View Post
Josh McCown
Peyton
Rivers
Rodgers
He's comparing single games of Smith to complete seasons of others?

That makes sense.

Hell, there were 4 QB's Sunday alone who eclipsed Smith's QBR, which was his highest of the season, IIRC.
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