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11-04-2010, 01:32 PM | |
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Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com
I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC
Compiled by Mike Harris The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion. Code:
AFC West Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE KC 5-2 29.2% 11.4 19.1% 24.9% 23.2% 25.5% 0.5% 1.0% 92.7% 44.0% 1.5% 94.2% 0.4% SD 3-5 17.0% 8.0 0.0% 0.6% 1.4% 2.9% 1.8% 7.3% 4.9% 0.7% 9.1% 14.0% 4.0% OAK 4-4 -9.1% 7.0 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 1.6% 2.3% 0.2% 1.9% 4.2% 2.3% DEN 2-6 -24.2% 4.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.3% Playoff Scenarios This report lists the odds of each team * Reaching the Conference Championship Game * Winning the Conference Championship Game * Winning the Super Bowl Code:
Conf App Conf Win SB Win NYG 50.3% 30.6% 16.0% KC 43.1% 23.6% 13.1% NE 41.1% 22.1% 12.0% PIT 36.6% 19.4% 10.4% PHI 32.7% 18.8% 10.3% ATL 46.0% 22.5% 9.6% GB 30.7% 14.4% 6.5% TEN 18.3% 8.8% 5.0% IND 17.2% 7.8% 3.8% NYJ 17.7% 8.0% 3.7% NO 17.7% 7.2% 2.8% BAL 14.2% 5.8% 2.6% MIA 5.7% 2.4% 1.2% TB 6.8% 2.0% 0.7% SEA 6.6% 1.9% 0.6% SD 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% HOU 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% SF 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% WAS 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% CHI 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% STL 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% MIN 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% DET 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% OAK 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ARI 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% JAC 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% CLE 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% CIN 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% |
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11-04-2010, 02:15 PM | #46 |
Bob Carr is a raging douche
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I don't even think that'll be a challenge. Oakland isn't ready to compete. Denver is acting like it's still November of 2009 every game and SD has dug too deep of a hole. KC will win by default. Again, they're the shiniest piece of shit in a pile of shit. They'll make it but won't do anything. Like you said, they're not ready to compete.
I hate to admit this after being on this board for a couple days and realizing how reeruned majority of the fans are, but when Pioli took over and got his personnel, I knew it was only a matter of time til the Chiefs were back. Then they had a couple of great drafts and the countdown began. I don't think it's this year as it is maybe next or the year after. But what do I know? To these ****s I'm a homer................ riiiiiiight. |
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11-04-2010, 02:15 PM | #47 | |
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You guys have a good young talented team with good coaching. I'm of the opinion that it'll be a year or 2 untill you're one of the big boys. |
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11-04-2010, 02:16 PM | #48 |
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Apparently the logic of actually READING charts that state the Chiefs are the team 2nd most likely yo make the superbowl escapes you too. Enjoy trolololing now...
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11-04-2010, 02:17 PM | #49 | |
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11-04-2010, 02:18 PM | #50 |
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11-04-2010, 02:18 PM | #51 | |
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11-04-2010, 02:19 PM | #52 |
Take a Chill Pill
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One thing that is not getting much play in the media is the fact that Gates tore his plantar fascia, he is downplaying it, but it could keep him out a long time.
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11-04-2010, 02:20 PM | #53 | ||
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I absolutely dread playing the Steelers and Ravens but outside of that, really, why couldn't we beat anyone else?...
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11-04-2010, 02:20 PM | #54 | |
Bob Carr is a raging douche
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11-04-2010, 02:20 PM | #55 |
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I believe that if the Chiefs make the Superbowl this year, it will be because of a QB change. We are not going ANYWHERE great with Matt Cassel at the helm. He's a damn good leader, but he's no Manning or Brady.
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11-04-2010, 02:21 PM | #56 | |||
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THE WHOLE OFFENSE. EVERY player, save the holdout WR who's due to show up in a few weeks...
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11-04-2010, 02:21 PM | #57 | |
Bob Carr is a raging douche
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Personally though, I don't give a **** if you like me or not. I have already been requested to stick around also via rep from a couple people so obviously not everyone here is all that bad. |
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11-04-2010, 02:22 PM | #58 | |
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11-04-2010, 02:23 PM | #59 |
Bob Carr is a raging douche
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That is my mistake then. I thought Pioli masterminded that also. Regardless, the personnel is getting put in place and you should be ecstatic b/c of it. I could only wish Al would relinquish control even though something got into him this past draft..... well the first half at least when he started picking football players and not combine warriors.
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11-04-2010, 02:23 PM | #60 | |
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Now go get yer shinebox bitch. |
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