AccuScore: Chiefs take big step; 49ers alive

[Bill Lundberg]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slu...yoffodds122110

AccuScore uses past performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, matchup, and game-situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability teams have of winning each game, winning their division, and making the playoffs. Here is the AccuScore.com analysis of the 2010 NFL season after Week 15. Visit AccuScore.com for weekly updates to the season forecast and all game forecasts.


AFC

The Chiefs got quarterback Matt Cassel(notes) back and got a dominating rushing performance this past week to put them in great position to take the AFC West title. The Chargers are heavy favorites in both of their remaining games and have over a 55 percent chance of closing with two wins, but they aren’t in the driver’s seat for the playoffs. With the Ravens and Jets both winning, the chances of an AFC West team getting a wild-card spot is unlikely. San Diego and Oakland both won on Sunday, but their playoff chances still dropped considerably because of the Chiefs’ win.

The Jets’ win in Pittsburgh was huge. With a likely first-round matchup against the inexperienced Chiefs, the Jets are probably better off in the No. 6 spot than the Ravens at No. 5. Baltimore will likely have to go to Indianapolis. The Steelers may have lost to the Jets, but they locked up a playoff spot and are still likely to win the AFC North by having a better division record than the Ravens.

The Colts regained control over the AFC South and are the 63.6 percent favorite to win the division. The Jaguars saw their chances drop over 20 percentage points by losing in Indianapolis. There is only a 35 percent chance that the Jags win out, and even if they do they cannot pass the Colts who have the tiebreaker.

WEEK 15 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 15 WK 16 % DIFF WIN DIV
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 54.4% 89.7% 35.3% 86.3%
NEW YORK JETS 75.3% 96.3% 20.9% 1.6%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 44.2% 63.6% 19.3% 63.6%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 97.3% 98.8% 1.5% 30.2%
TENNESSEE TITANS 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 1.1%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 99.8% 100.0% 0.2% 69.8%
BUFFALO BILLS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DENVER BRONCOS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 98.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS 0.3% 0.0% -0.3% 0.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 8.7% 2.0% -6.7% 2.0%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 58.6% 36.8% -21.8% 35.3%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 51.8% 11.8% -40.0% 11.8%
NFC

The Bears hammered the Vikings to win the NFC North, and the Packers saw their playoff chances plummet as a result. If Aaron Rodgers(notes) is healthy the Packers are a 58 percent favorite to beat the Giants in Week 16, so they still have a chance if they can beat Chicago in Week 17. The Saints and Giants may have both lost in Week 15, but they are still clear-cut favorites for the wild-card spots.

The three-team race for the NFC West is still alive. Amazingly, the 49ers have a 28 percent chance to win out and take the division. The Rams are actually winning less than 50 percent of Weeks 16 and 17 simulations, but they are still ultimately winning the division 43 percent of the time, which is more than the 49ers and Seahawks.

WEEK 15 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 15 WK 16 % DIFF WIN DIV
CHICAGO BEARS 61.7% 100.0% 38.3% 100.0%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 87.2% 99.9% 12.7% 99.2%
NEW YORK GIANTS 67.4% 79.4% 12.0% 0.8%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 16.2% 28.1% 11.9% 28.1%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 93.1% 97.4% 4.2% 7.9%
ATLANTA FALCONS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 92.1%
CAROLINA PANTHERS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DALLAS COWBOYS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DETROIT LIONS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0%
ST. LOUIS RAMS 47.2% 42.8% -4.4% 42.8%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 36.4% 29.1% -7.4% 29.1%
GREEN BAY PACKERS 53.7% 22.2% -31.6% 0.0%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 36.9% 1.1% -35.8% 0.0%

[JTagg7754]

Originally Posted by Hydrae

See, I look at it differently. I hope the Chiefs make the playoffs even though I know they will most likely be out the first round. But I want these young guys to have the experience of playing in the post season tournament so when they go back next year they are ready to take the next step and progress deep into the playoffs.

I can totally dig that logic. Hell, either of us may even make some noise and upset some people. It's all just a matter of opinion. You guys are a very young team and a team I said everyone would have to watch out for a couple of years ago.

[cdcox]

86% is way too optimistic.

AND THE TIEBREAKERS AREN'T CALCULATED CORRECTLY!!!!!!!!!

If I'm reading the table correctly, it still shows the Chiefs having a chance to win the WC, which they do not.

[Los Pollos Hermanos]

Originally Posted by Rausch

That also means we don't make the playoffs.

And the Raiders sweep us.

LOSE-LOSE situation.

I know. I'm not wishing for that, I just think it would be pretty crazy.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

THAT is something I would be extremely pumped about. I can't think of the last time we could say that. I mean, the Raiders ended a SHITLOAD of streaks this season.

Just to name some:

- Consecutive losses to SD (was at 13 I think)
- Double digit losing seasons
- 11 loss seasons
- winning record in the division
- Possible overall winning record..

many more also. I have been pleased w/ them this year but they're still not legit. Not yet.

No, they aren't.

But step 1 is complete.

When you bitchslap your whole division you're doing something right. You have to start and end there.

Consistency, consistency, and then LEADERSHIP.

They won on the road, at home, everywhere vs. the most difficult of opponents. No matter how good or bad the division is those are always the most unpredictable and difficult games.

But after a huge win they'd play some NFCW dirtbag and lose. Or AFC cellar dweller and lose.

Leadership.

[JTagg7754]

Originally Posted by Rausch

No, they aren't.

But step 1 is complete.

When you bitchslap your whole division you're doing something right. You have to start and end there.

Consistency, consistency, and then LEADERSHIP.

And this is where I worry. Campbell lacks those qualities and that's why I'm scared that if he's winning, he's gonna get a nice extension and we'll be a 6-10 team next year, then a 5-11 team, then a 8-8 team, then a 6-10 team etc for the better half of the decade.

They won on the road, at home, everywhere vs. the most difficult of opponents. No matter how good or bad the division is those are always the most unpredictable and difficult games.

But after a huge win they'd play some NFCW dirtbag and lose. Or AFC cellar dweller and lose.

Leadership.

Losing to SF and AZ just..... ruined me hahaha. Oh well, it's over and done w/, nothing can be done about it now.

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

And this is where I worry. Campbell lacks those qualities and that's why I'm scared that if he's winning, he's gonna get a nice extension and we'll be a 6-10 team next year, then a 5-11 team, then a 8-8 team, then a 6-10 team etc for the better half of the decade.

We can only hope.
Posted via Mobile Device

[alnorth]

This is far too optimistic. Lets assume the "chiefs win out" part of their 86% is about 75%. (I have no idea, just picking a number that looks good, I figure about 10% that the chiefs and chargers each lose only 1).

That implies the chiefs have about a 87% chance of winning each of their last two games. (square root of .75)

I'd say the chiefs have a slightly better than 50-50 chance of winning out (75% per game), and maybe at best, theres a 10% chance of the chiefs and chargers each dropping exactly 1 game. The third possible playoff scenario is laughably unlikely.

At best, being the wild-eyed chief homer I am, I'd say the chiefs have a 2/3 chance of making it.