Chiefs are the most overrated team in the NFL

[Hammock Parties]

LOL

The Oakland Raiders will travel to Arrowhead stadium in Kansas City to face one of the NFL’s remaining undefeated teams. Arrowhead stadium is notoriously loud and is seen as one of the most difficult stadiums to play in. The Chiefs even plan on trying to break the record for loudest stadium that was set by the Seattle Seahawks earlier this season. Their defense is playing lights out and head coach Andy Reid has the offense clicking like it hasn’t in years.

But despite all of that, the Raiders should be able to pull off the win while simultaneously pulling down the curtain and revealing the Chiefs for the team they really are.

Everyone remembers the hot team early in the 2012 season, or do they? Many have likely already forgotten about the Chiefs of 2012, the Arizona Cardinals. Last year, the Cards went 4-0 to start the season and did so almost the exact same way as the Chiefs are doing it this season. Winning behind a strong defense and getting just enough out of a lackluster offense.

The reason that so few remember the hot start by the Cards is because after winning four in a row, they went on to lose nine straight and finished the season 5-11.

The Chiefs certainly look like a better team than the Cardinals did last season. Alex Smith is by no means a great quarterback, but he does what Reid is asking of him very well. The problem is, that offense can really only play well enough to win without an absolutely dominant defense.

The Chiefs are a dink and dunk offense in the truest sense of the term. Yes, they run a west coast offense which does involve a lot of short, dink and dunk style passes, but the Chiefs take that to an extreme. According to Pro Football Focus, of the 108 passes completed by the Chiefs this season, 93 of those passes were nine yards or shorter and more than a quarter of those 93 completions, 25, were passes behind the line of scrimmage.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have only completed 21 passes for 10 or more yards. Just think about that for a minute, the Chiefs have more completed passes that went negative yards than passes that went more than nine yards. In a league dominated by passing, those are not stats that indicate a team who will be able to continue on an undefeated path.

As the season progresses, teams will obtain more tape on the Chiefs and soon will be able to better pick apart that defense. Once that begins to happen, the NFL could witness another implosion. The offense is simply not capable of competing if the defense cannot hold opponents to minimal points.

Running back Jamaal Charles is easily the biggest offensive weapon for the Chiefs and even he is not having an amazing season. While he does have the sixth most yards in the league, he only has two rushing touchdowns and only one run of more than 20 yards. By comparison, Darren McFadden, who has really only had one good game this season also has two touchdowns but has four 20+ yard runs.

The Chiefs are better than the Cardinals were in 2012, but they are still just a mirage. The Raiders will likely prove to be a much bigger challenge than many assume and may be the first team to reveal the true nature of this Chiefs team.

You can follow James Arcellana on Twitter: @RaidersReporter and can follow Cover32 Raiders on Twitter: @Cover32_Oak

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[notorious]

Awesome.

They will feel like they have been ****ed by a train, and never seen it coming.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Ace Gunner

"the Chiefs have only completed 21 passes for 10 or more yards. Just think about that for a minute"

did you help write this wendler?

jk

He is an idiot, but raised a couple of good points.

Alex Smith has completed 21 passes over 10 yards this year.

He has also completed 18 passes behind the line of scrimmage.

That is absurd.

[tk13]

We went through this the other day... but Alex is actually 11th in the league in 25+ yard passes. He has only four less than Peyton Manning. Alex has more 25+ yard plays than Wilson, Brady, or Luck.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Iirc...That Denver team was ok until Josh neutered Mike Nolan.

The rape came first (starting in Baltimore) and the neutering came later.

[redshirt32]

I like how the trolls /media always predict the first loss for the chiefs..................

Eventually when the chiefs lose they will take all the credit for writing this kind of bull shit

So each week we will see this over and over again and some sports writer/announcer will claim he or she was right when the chiefs finally lose a game geeezzee

Keep writing each week assholes it will be awhile !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Ace Gunner]

Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead

He is an idiot, but raised a couple of good points.

Alex Smith has completed 21 passes over 10 yards this year.

He has also completed 18 passes behind the line of scrimmage.

That is absurd.

it's the WCO at work in it's infancy. this system, if nothing else, is a ball control system -- it eats up TOP.

I am surprised you rewrote that. we all know all your stats now. I'm just as concerned as you with regard to the performances of this offense. But I attribute the OL as a major contributor to the lacking long pass game and the fact throwing lanes are not good for the short pass game. looking at the stats on this OL is painful.

Hoping we see something different tomorrow.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by tk13

We went through this the other day... but Alex is actually 11th in the league in 25+ yard passes. He has only four less than Peyton Manning. Alex has more 25+ yard plays than Wilson, Brady, or Luck.

I know. But it's not the same thing.

You have to threaten a defense down the field.

No one says "better back up the safeties, Alex might throw a 5-yard pass that goes for 25 yards!"

[Easy 6]

I'll give this douche this, its disappointing that Charles hasnt busted a big run 5 games in.

[Hydrae]

Originally Posted by REDHOTGTO

how bout this article ? anyone seen it?
http://network.yardbarker.com/all_sp..._beat/14762267

Interesting read, thanks for sharing!

One thing that a straight look at stats misses though is things like Champ being hurt for most of the year and Miller not even playing yet for Denver's D. They will be better on that side of the ball as the year goes on. That is one of the reasons that while this year is a fun ride so far, I am certainly not expecting to see the playoffs except as a Wild Card.

Along the same lines, what is that Seattle offense going to look like when they get Harvin inserted finally?

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by O.city

So why put offensive genius in quotation marks as if to say Reid is the same type of offensive genius as mcdaniels, when one is a potential HOFer and the other is, well, what he is?

Uh, because his offense is terrible, just like McDaniels' was?

[ROYC75]

Originally Posted by REDHOTGTO

how bout this article ? anyone seen it?
http://network.yardbarker.com/all_sp..._beat/14762267

Fear The Chiefs: Powerful Kansas City AFC's Team To Beat
Cold, Hard Football Facts for Oct 11, 2013

By Kerry J. Byrne
Cold, Hard Football Facts Pigskin Papoose (@footballfacts)

Three teams enter Week 6 with perfect 5-0 records.

But only one of them is the NFL's undisputed statistical champ through five games. And it’s not the high-flying 5-0 Broncos or rejuvenated 5-0 Saints.

The best team in football right now is the surprising 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs – the No. 1 team in our Quality Stats Power Rankings.

Our Power Rankings are not based upon the misleading old eye test or subjective assumptions about each team’s capabilities. Instead, they’re based upon average ranking across the board in all of our Quality Stats, each of which has a direct correlation to winning football games.

The top-ranked Chiefs at this moment are the team to beat in the AFC.

They’ve gone from 2-14 in 2012 to all-around statistical powerhouse in the space of five games in 2013, which makes it a dramatic storyline about how fast life changes in the Not for Long League.

The statistical storyline is this: regardless of how bad the team looked last year, the Chiefs today are a deadly combination of league-best defense, game-manager quarterback and overall team intelligence and undisputed dominance in situational football.

Four Reasons to Fear the Chiefs

ONE - THE NFL’s BEST PASS DEFENSE – Championships are typically won by teams with great pass defenses. Kansas City ranks No. 1 in all three of our measures of pass defense:

Defensive Passer Rating (62.3)
Defensive Real QB Rating (53.5)
Defensive Passing YPA (4.62)

Look at any franchise in NFL history and you’ll typically find that their championship teams boasted the franchise’s best pass defense.

The Chiefs are no exception. The best Defensive Passer Rating in franchise history was posted by the 1969 Super Bowl IV champion Chiefs (42.1).

Kansas City's pass-defense dominance here in 2013 makes them a tough out against any opponent.

TWO - A GAME MANAGER QUARTERBACK – Misinformed football fans think “game manager” is a derogatory way to describe a quarterback. It is not.

Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith has been the NFL’s best game-manager quarterback since 2011, a period during which he’s gone 25-6-1 (.797). Peyton Manning over that same period is 18-4 (.818); Tom Brady 32-10 (.762). We’re talking great company, and Smith has done it with two different franchises.

History proves that game managers win championships far more often than big-armed gunslingers. Hell, from 1961 to 2004, a period of 44 seasons, 27 percent of all NFL championships (12 total) were won by teams led by three of the most notable “game manager QBs” in history: Bart Starr, Joe Montana and Tom Brady.

Brady won three titles in his first four seasons on the field, a period during which he was derided as a boring game manager. He’s won zero championships since 2007, a period of six years in which he was one of the most exciting and prolific passers in football history.

Bottom line: don't diss the game manager. History proves that the guy who avoids turnovers and makes smart decisions is more likely to help you win a championship than the big-armed gunslinger.

THREE - EFFICIENT AND RELATIVELY STRONG DEFENSE – Kansas City is No. 1 in scoring defense (11.6 PPG) right now.

Perhaps more importantly, they’re also No. 1 in Bendability (our measure of defensive efficiency), forcing opponents to march an incredible 26.97 Yards Per Point Scored. Put in football terms, Kansas City opponents need to produce a daunting 188.8 yards of offense, nearly two entire trips up and down the field, just to score the equivalent of a TD and extra point.

Kansas City is also No. 1 in defensive Relativity, holding opponents to 12.25 PPG below their scoring average in other games. The Saints are distant second, holding opponents 8.7 PPG below their average in other games.

FOUR - TEAM INTELLIGENCE and COACHING – Perhaps most importantly, Kansas City is the smartest team in football, easily topping our CHFF Insider-only Intelligence Index, which rates efficiency on both sides of the ball and tells us which teams are the best in “situational football” – those critical situations that almost always separate winners from losers in pro football.

How important is team intelligence and success in situational football? Consider this:

The Top 6 teams on the Intelligence Index, the “smartest” teams in football, are a combined 27-3 (.900) straight up and 20-10 (.667) against the spread.
The five worst teams on the Intelligence Index, the dumbest teams in football, are a combined 2-21 (.087) straight up and 1-22 (.043) against the spread.

Keep in mind that the Chiefs were No. 32 last year on the Intelligence Index. They've gone from the dumbest team in football to the smartest team in football in the space of five games. That's a testament to the job the rejuvenated Andy Reid has done in his new location. After all, team intelligence and proficiency in situational football are a direct reflection of the quality of coaching.

Quite honestly, Reid mailed it in last year in his final season at Philadelphia: the 2012 Eagles were No. 31, just ahead of the Chiefs, on that very same Intelligence Index. Reid did a very poor coaching those Eagles. This year, he's done a very good job coaching the Chiefs, fielding the smartest, most efficient team in football.



BIG FLAWS IN DENVER'S GAME

The Broncos, meanwhile, are clearly a superior offensive team. But the defense is more suspect than Colonel Mustard in the study with a candlestick – as the world saw Sunday when Tony Romo and the Cowboys looked virtually unstoppable.

Yes, Denver won the game, 51-48. But history has proven time and again that prolific offenses paired with porous defenses are never there at the end of the day.

In fact, we took a long, hard look at the history of the greatest offenses in NFL history this off-season (The Big Tease: Why Elite Offenses Never Put Out). The results for teams like the Broncos are simply not good. Teams solely dependent upon offensive dominance rarely if ever get it done alone in crunch time.

Denver ranks:

No. 28 in Total Team Yards Allowed
No. 31 in Defensive Rusher Rating
and No. 32 and dead last in Defensive Real Passing YPA

Opponents have torched them for nearly 8.0 Real Yards Per Pass Attempt (which includes the impact of sacks), low-lighted by their lack of effort on Sunday against the Cowboys.

Romo put up historically good numbers, passing for 506 yards on just 36 attempts (the fewest ever by a 500-yard passer) and 14.06 YPA.

That’s not a defense you want to carry into the postseason.

We’re not sure the Chiefs could beat, say, the Saints or the Seahawks if they made it to the Super Bowl. Both those teams right now look like the total package: efficient quarterbacks, strong defenses, smart all-around football.

But we certainly like Kansas City's chances against the Broncos. Of course, the two teams clash twice later this year, in mid November and again in early December.

We’ll know a lot more about both teams after those two games. But, right now, through Week 5, only one of these teams looks like it’s built for the Super Bowl: the Kansas City Chiefs.

***

Here’s a quick look at the Top 10 in our Quality Stats Power Rankings. You can see the entire list here.

Our Power Rankings are not based upon gooey feelings about which team is the best. They’re based instead on empirical data, on the all-powerful Cold, Hard Football Facts.

We size up every team across the board in all of our Quality Stats, each of which has a direct correlation to winning football games. The No. 1 team on the list is the team with the highest average ranking; the No. 32 team on the list the team with the lowest average ranking.

1. Kansas City Chiefs – A great defense and the smartest team in football: No. 1 on the CHFF Insider-only Intelligence Index.

2. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck is the leader, but his fronted right now by the best offensive line in football. Indy ranks No. 1 on the Offensive Hog Index.

3. Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks are No. 2 in Defensive Real QB Rating, behind only the Chiefs, and virtually untouchable at home. Seattle is 7-0 in its last seven home games, and has outscored its opponents 252-73 in those games.

4. New Orleans Saints – The rejuvenated defense is the story: the 5-0 Saints are No. 3 in Bendability (defensive efficiency) and No. 2 in defensive Relativity, holding opponents 8.7 PPG below their average in other games.

5. Denver Broncos – Peyton Manning and the Broncos easily top the NFL in every measure of passing efficiency. But their defense right now has huge holes in it: No. 28 in Total Team Yards Allowed , No. 31 in Defensive Rusher Rating and No. 32 and dead last in Defensive Real Passing YPA

6. Tennessee Titans – The surprising Titans have lost just three turnovers this year and rank in the top 10 in two critical measures of team success: No. 8 in Passer Rating Differential and No. 5 in Real Quarterback Rating Differential.

7. New England Patriots – The “Get Tough or Die” Patriots are No. 2 in scoring defense and No. 2 in Bendability (defensive efficiency); but Tom Brady and the offense are a meager No. 26 in Real Passing Yards Per Attempt.

8. Detroit Lions – The Lions are +19.74 in Passer Rating Differential , the Mother of All Stats, good enough for sixth league wide and one of the best marks in the inglorious history of the franchise.

9. Green Bay Packers – A classic case of a brilliant offense paired with a pathetic defense: No. 3 in Real Passing Yards Per Attempt (7.66) but No. 26 in Defensive Real Passing YPA (7.26).

10. San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers right now do not possess the explosive punch most folks thought they’d have at this point in the season: No. 20 in Real Quarterback Rating; No. 24 in Time of Possession; No. 27 in Total Team Yards. But a No. 2 spot in Defensive Passer Rating makes them dangerous.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nice read, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here, the season is way way to early.

[Hammock Parties]

“game manager QBs” in history: Bart Starr, Joe Montana and Tom Brady.

**** the guy who wrote this.

I mean, just, nuke his family.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by scott free

I'll give this douche this, its disappointing that Charles hasnt busted a big run 5 games in.

I think we'd all love to see him break off a long one and bust the game open..

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

WE'Z IZ TEH SMARTEZT!

[tk13]

Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead

I know. But it's not the same thing.

You have to threaten a defense down the field.

No one says "better back up the safeties, Alex might throw a 5-yard pass that goes for 25 yards!"

Yeah, but I still think people are looking at this through Daboll colored glasses. Some of these plays are simple checkdowns, and some of these plays are short passes designed to get guys in space so they can make things happen. To this point I don't believe Andy Reid is attempting to be nearly as conservative as people think he is. And I do think we're getting more aggressive week to week. We came out in a ton of empty backfield sets last week, in nasty weather conditions.