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Old 09-07-2016, 11:43 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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538.com weighs in: Chiefs "simulation" nets 10 wins, but game-by-game odds? 13.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...l-predictions/

They only have us as clear underdogs in Pitt, in Carolina, and in Denver. We're slated as favorites in the other 13 games. We would theoretically be 8-0 at home and 5-3 on the road.

They give us a 2/3's chance to make the playoffs, but a sub-40% chance to win the division. They think we have a 30% chance to get a first round bye, and a 9% chance to win the Super Bowl.

Pretty weird.

They'll have an AFC West preview in a few days. I'll update the OP with it when it's posted.
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Old 09-07-2016, 04:07 PM   #46
ThaVirus ThaVirus is offline
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I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers take a step back this season.
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Old 09-07-2016, 04:08 PM   #47
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I'm thinking 12-4, but of course they'll screw it up and lose to the Jags or Titans or something.

Chargers W
at Texans W
Jets W
at Steelers L
at Raiders L
Saints W
at Colts W
Jaguars W
at Panthers L
Buccaneers W
at Broncos L
at Falcons W
Raiders W
Titans W
Broncos W
at Chargers W
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Old 09-07-2016, 04:15 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by ThaVirus View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers take a step back this season.
It's definitely difficult to improve upon a 15-1 record
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Old 09-07-2016, 04:15 PM   #49
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It's definitely difficult to improve upon a 15-1 record
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Old 09-07-2016, 04:18 PM   #50
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I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers take a step back this season.
Of course they will. Still going to beat the Broncos tomorrow night.
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Old 09-07-2016, 04:20 PM   #51
ThaVirus ThaVirus is offline
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It's definitely difficult to improve upon a 15-1 record
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Kinda funny, I suppose, but I'm talking about a biiiiig step back.
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Old 09-07-2016, 04:43 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...l-predictions/

They only have us as clear underdogs in Pitt, in Carolina, and in Denver. We're slated as favorites in the other 13 games. We would theoretically be 8-0 at home and 5-3 on the road.

They give us a 2/3's chance to make the playoffs, but a sub-40% chance to win the division. They think we have a 30% chance to get a first round bye, and a 9% chance to win the Super Bowl.

Pretty weird.

They'll have an AFC West preview in a few days. I'll update the OP with it when it's posted.
This fits my season prediction to a T. I see 13 wins but allowed for losing 3 games that they probably shouldn't lose.
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Old 09-07-2016, 06:39 PM   #53
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I see us at 10 - 6 winning the AFC West as the third seed.

Chargers W (a limited Charles keeps this closer than it should be)
at Texans L (they always give us problems, and no Houston really hurts us)
Jets W (young QB @ Arrowhead early in the season)
at Steelers W (Alex outshines Big Ben in a shootout, his best game of the season)
at Raiders W (with Charles back at 100%, Chiefs rush for 250+)
Saints L (still no Houston = not enough pass rush, Brees lights it up for 400+ yards & 5 TDs)
at Colts L (Chiefs put up 4 touchdowns, but not enough as defense lets them down in Houston's first game back)
Jaguars W (we win by 3+ scores)
at Panthers L (we lose big. This is the game that RBBC comes back to bite us as they combine for 3+ fumbles)
Buccaneers W (despite allowing an opening drive field goal, the Chiefs only gives up 200 yards of total offense)
at Broncos L (bad clock management and untimely turnover)
at Falcons W (defense finishes with 9+ sacks and 3+ turnovers)
Raiders W (nailbiter, Chiefs win by a field goal)
Titans L (bad clock management and untimely turnovers again)
Broncos W (at Arrowhead, Chiefs win by 2 scores)
at Chargers W (3 point victory in San Diego wins the West)
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Old 09-07-2016, 06:43 PM   #54
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Yeah, Direckshun beat me to it, but only by 7 or so hours. That's kinda close.
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Old 09-07-2016, 07:47 PM   #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...l-predictions/

They only have us as clear underdogs in Pitt, in Carolina, and in Denver. We're slated as favorites in the other 13 games. We would theoretically be 8-0 at home and 5-3 on the road.

They give us a 2/3's chance to make the playoffs, but a sub-40% chance to win the division. They think we have a 30% chance to get a first round bye, and a 9% chance to win the Super Bowl.

Pretty weird.

They'll have an AFC West preview in a few days. I'll update the OP with it when it's posted.
It's not wierd at all. It is just basic probability. Take the first two games: we are favored by 81% and 57%. While we are favored to win both games, the expected number of wins is 1.38, which is significantly less than 2. You do that 16 times and you get a little over 10 wins, even if we are favored in 13 games.
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Old 09-08-2016, 06:08 AM   #56
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It's not wierd at all. It is just basic probability. Take the first two games: we are favored by 81% and 57%. While we are favored to win both games, the expected number of wins is 1.38, which is significantly less than 2. You do that 16 times and you get a little over 10 wins, even if we are favored in 13 games.


There's a reason you're the statistician and I'm not.
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Old 09-08-2016, 07:33 AM   #57
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But if we do wind up 13-3 and win at least one playoff game we can start calling Andy the Curse Breaker!
This. I don't believe in any curse. Those 13 win teams that lost in the playoffs were just getting screwed over by the refs and inept game ending QB in 1997 and teams that were not as good as their records indicated the other 2 times. Bono the choke artist as well as the kicker who shall not be named in 1995. The 2003 team had absolutely garbage for defense by season's end. Andy Reid's Chiefs teams are much more rounded, complete teams.
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Old 09-08-2016, 07:35 AM   #58
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He's the world's biggest ****ing homer. Bordering on KCJohnny territory.
That's no different than you negative Nancy's always seeing the worst possible outcome. You and Clay seem to be very unhappy people.
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Old 09-08-2016, 09:44 AM   #59
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Yea because I'm predicting that the Chiefs go 19-0, and win the Super Bowl, right?

I'm saying 11-5 and at least an AFCCG (with Houston back), which seems to be pretty fair compared to the rest.

Keep running with that narrative though. It's funny that some of you think being optimistic about this team under this regime makes you a homer. You're completely delusional in your pessimism.
Oh at least.
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Old 09-08-2016, 11:17 AM   #60
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Oh at least.
Yea, such a homer to think we can go one step further if Houston comes back healthy.

Did you Broncos fans watch football outside of Denver last year? Seriously.
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