Royals (New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository - Page 42

duncan_idaho · 08-15-2013, 08:13 AM

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Three7s · 09-09-2013, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

Obviously if all 4 teams fall flat on their ass, we can coast in but thats not reasonable. If any of those teams goes on a 80% tear, we're toast. If TB wins about 60%, we're probably also done, they need to do no better than play about .500 ball.

I think our most reasonable path is to hope TB loses half their games, and hope no one gets red-hot, but acknowledge that one of the other teams is probably going to win about 13 games.

That means, we have to win at least 14 out of 19 to possibly force a tie. Thats about a 75% rate which is definitely pretty hot, but not too insane for a 19 game stretch, we've done better than that a couple times.

If we really go nuts and win 85%+ then forget the wild card, at that point we're probably gunning for the division since that means we've probably also beaten Detroit 2 or 3 times, but thats getting close to fantasyland daydreams.

I think 90 wins gets it done for any team going for the 2nd wild card.

Cephalic Trauma · 09-09-2013, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

0.0 WAR dude out of the pen is no more! He's now into negative territory -0.2. Yeah that's right: Crow is actually now worse than a replacement level player. By comparison even Fransily Bueno (sp?) was able to eke out a 0.1 WAR in the 4 innings he threw this year for us.

See that ledge right there?

Would you mind stepping off it?

**alnorth** · 09-09-2013, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cephalic Trauma

Shit, I just want to see us win tonight and go from there. Usually, I love statistics because they are purely objective. But damn, reducing our chances to a mere number when we play some important games in the coming days just sucks the fun out of it.

Maybe I'm just butthurt about our statistical chances, but we can help ourselves a lot this week, and I'm excited to see it play out.

If we make it, the odds make the accomplishment that much more amazing. There's no 20/20 hindsight of "oh sure, this was a team of destiny, TB was falling apart, of course the Royals were going to make it" well no, let's not downplay what an amazing achievement it would be. People would start scrambling for the record books to see when the last time this sort of thing happened, given what they looked like at the break.

And if they don't make it, well yeah, it was a 1 in 20 or 1 in 25 shot, what did you expect?

CaliforniaChief · 09-09-2013, 03:21 PM

So, if 90 is the goal, and that would certainly be impressive, this team is going to have to go full-on beast mode, winning every series and sweeping a couple.

With 75 wins in the bank and 19 to go, we're going to have to carry a winning percentage of .789 from here on out. We can afford 4 more losses for the remainder of the season in a schedule that includes 3 at Cleveland, 3 at Detroit, 3 vs. Cleveland, and 3 vs. Texas.

So here's how you'd have to do it. You'd have to win all four of those series and sweep at least one, preferably vs. Cleveland and then sweep either the Mariners or White Sox on the road and win the other one.

Yikes.

Fansy the Famous Bard · 09-09-2013, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

So, if 90 is the goal, and that would certainly be impressive, this team is going to have to go full-on beast mode, winning every series and sweeping a couple.

With 75 wins in the bank and 19 to go, we're going to have to carry a winning percentage of .789 from here on out. We can afford 4 more losses for the remainder of the season in a schedule that includes 3 at Cleveland, 3 at Detroit, 3 vs. Cleveland, and 3 vs. Texas.

So here's how you'd have to do it. You'd have to win all four of those series and sweep at least one, preferably vs. Cleveland and then sweep either the Mariners or White Sox on the road and win the other one.

Yikes.

We'll probably go in and 11-4 the first 5 series, then get swept out by the Sox, being forced to listen to Hawk on the broadcast the last couple of games.

stonedstooge · 09-09-2013, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke

We'll probably go in and 11-4 the first 5 series, then get swept out by the Sox, being forced to listen to Hawk(and mother****ing jones) on the broadcast the last couple of games.

Addition

Archie F. Swin · 09-09-2013, 04:35 PM

is there any way GMDM could/would snag a bat before the season is out?

duncan_idaho · 09-09-2013, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archie F. Swin

is there any way GMDM could/would snag a bat before the season is out?

No. Not really. Unless they bring in someone from Japan or something.

duncan_idaho · 09-09-2013, 04:55 PM

I will say this...

Here's a creative thought for acquiring a bat for next season: Wladimir Ballentien. The ex-Mariners super-stud washed out of the major leagues after 3 years and about 560 ABs, but he is having a legendary season over in Japan (1.278 OPS, .814 SLG).

Now, it's unlikely he can replicate that success in the U.S. Like, winning PowerBall level of unlikely. But it IS possible Ballatien is the modern Cecil Fielder and figured something out in Japan that he could never get here (for Cecil, it was recognizing and hitting non-fastballs - something Japanese pitchers throw much more of).

Ballatien has two years let on his NPL deal, and I have no idea what that means as far as acquiring him. But it would be an interesting way to try to address the RH power issue (and RF)...

mr. tegu · 09-09-2013, 05:03 PM

I have never even heard of him.

Also, someone needs to start a game thread. I would but I have not had good luck with them.

**Dartgod** · 09-09-2013, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

I have never even heard of him.

Also, someone needs to start a game thread. I would but I have not had good luck with them.

I'm 0-fer this year. No way I'm starting it.

**lewdog** · 09-09-2013, 05:05 PM

I'll take it if someone else doesn't want it.

SPchief · 09-09-2013, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lewdog

I'll take it if someone else doesn't want it.

I'll take it

TambaBerry · 09-09-2013, 05:08 PM

I've never started one and don't know if it would be a good idea.

AussieChiefsFan · 09-09-2013, 11:21 PM

08-15-2013, 08:13 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1470308	(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository New thread, this time with more burst. Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
Posts: 21,147

09-09-2013, 03:21 PM	#619
CaliforniaChief #RIPAce Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $12322899	So, if 90 is the goal, and that would certainly be impressive, this team is going to have to go full-on beast mode, winning every series and sweeping a couple. With 75 wins in the bank and 19 to go, we're going to have to carry a winning percentage of .789 from here on out. We can afford 4 more losses for the remainder of the season in a schedule that includes 3 at Cleveland, 3 at Detroit, 3 vs. Cleveland, and 3 vs. Texas. So here's how you'd have to do it. You'd have to win all four of those series and sweep at least one, preferably vs. Cleveland and then sweep either the Mariners or White Sox on the road and win the other one. Yikes.
Posts: 17,326

09-09-2013, 04:35 PM	#622
Archie F. Swin This is the way Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Wichita Falls, Texas Casino cash: $9975673	is there any way GMDM could/would snag a bat before the season is out? __________________ "No Two People Will Do It The Same, You got It Down...When You Appear to Be In Pain!"
Posts: 11,800

09-09-2013, 04:55 PM	#624
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1470308	I will say this... Here's a creative thought for acquiring a bat for next season: Wladimir Ballentien. The ex-Mariners super-stud washed out of the major leagues after 3 years and about 560 ABs, but he is having a legendary season over in Japan (1.278 OPS, .814 SLG). Now, it's unlikely he can replicate that success in the U.S. Like, winning PowerBall level of unlikely. But it IS possible Ballatien is the modern Cecil Fielder and figured something out in Japan that he could never get here (for Cecil, it was recognizing and hitting non-fastballs - something Japanese pitchers throw much more of). Ballatien has two years let on his NPL deal, and I have no idea what that means as far as acquiring him. But it would be an interesting way to try to address the RH power issue (and RF)... __________________ "You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra
Posts: 21,147

09-09-2013, 05:03 PM	#625
mr. tegu Forever Royal Join Date: Mar 2012 Casino cash: $1691300	I have never even heard of him. Also, someone needs to start a game thread. I would but I have not had good luck with them.
Posts: 24,154

09-09-2013, 05:05 PM	#627
lewdog Mod Team Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: Valley of the hot as **** Casino cash: $1621900	I'll take it if someone else doesn't want it.
Posts: 45,659

09-09-2013, 05:08 PM	#629
TambaBerry MVP Join Date: Jan 2013 Casino cash: $1415541	I've never started one and don't know if it would be a good idea.
Posts: 10,621

09-09-2013, 11:21 PM	#630
AussieChiefsFan MVP Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Sydney, Australia Casino cash: $6318501
Posts: 13,751