***Official 2015 STL Cardinals Thread III.***

[BigRedChief]

2011 World Series Championship
2012 NLCS. One win from another WS appearance.
2013 World Series. Two wins from another World Series Championship
2014 NLCS. Three wins from another WS appearance
2015 Central Division title. Won 100 games. Lost in the NLDS.

• Made the postseason 11 times in the last 15 seasons.
• Only 1 losing season since 2000.
• Reached the World Series 4 times since 2004 and won as many championships (two) the past eight seasons as it did from 1965 to 2005.
• Made the NLCS 9 times including the last 4 years 2011-2014
• Three million attendance? Take it to the bank.
• 65 post season wins since 2004. 22+ wins more than any other team.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Carlos Marmol was another guy who threw hard, striking out literally the same amount of batters per 9 in the minors, but also couldnt tell you where his pitch was going to end up.

If you can't tell a difference between Alex Reyes and Carlos Marmol, there's really no sense in weighing in.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

If you can't tell a difference between Alex Reyes and Carlos Marmol, there's really no sense in weighing in.

Ones a minor league Cardinal who's fans think is worth more than one of the best 1B in the majors at age 26?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Ones a minor league Cardinal who's fans thinks is worth more than one of the best 1B in the majors at age 26?

Again - what do you think Freddie Freeman gets on the open market? I'd be shocked if he yielded an AAV of greater than $23 million. At $23 million, you're talking about an annual surplus value of less than $5 million/season. Round it up and you're talking about $30 million in total surplus value over the life of Freeman's present contract.

This isn't Freddie Freeman on a cost controlled deal or even on Rizzo's deal. This is Freddie Freeman getting paid just a tick less than what he'd get paid as a FA. As such, his value as a trade commodity just isn't that high.

If Reyes manages as much as 2 WAR/season over his cost controlled seasons, we'd end up paying him about $25 million for 12 WAR (and even that is assuming he gets most of those war in years 3, 4 and 5 where it will drive up his arb values, otherwise he'd end up well below $25 million total at only 2 WAR/season in arb). The market value of a win share is probably around $6 million/win or $72 million total (and that's on the lower side of the generally accepted estimates).

Reyes could get 12 WAR pretty easily over those cost controlled years, thus giving him about $50 million in value as a pure trade piece. Frankly, the 2 WAR estimate is based on the uncertainty of him actually panning out. If he did develop as the scouting report says he should, he'd blow past 12 WAR during his 6 controlled seasons.

Reyes is more valuable as a commodity than Freddie Freeman is. Money counts in modern baseball and ignoring the massive disparity in team control and the opportunity cost associated with taking on Freeman's contract....well, it's pretty much what I'd expect from a Cubs fan.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Not me. Why would you trade 6 years of control of a possible Cy Young winner for Freeman? Reyeshas way more value than Freeman,

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Nice starting place, which means a trade will get worked out IMO. Now what players do they want instead of Reyes would be the next question.

I agree with you on not trading Reyes. Gonzales is fine to give away, the next is what combo of players would the Braves want some combo of Lyons/Cooney and Weaver/Flaherty. Maybe see if they take Adams in the deal.

[Mi_chief_fan]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

David Schoenfield of ESPN says that the Braves want Reyes and Gonzales for Freeman.

That would make me sick to my stomach, but Hell, we are talking about a guy that traded Rob Kaminski for the useless slug that is Brandon Moss, so it wouldn't shock me.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Mi_chief_fan

That would make me sick to my stomach, but Hell, we are talking about a guy that traded Rob Kaminski for the useless slug that is Brandon Moss, so it wouldn't shock me.

Come on man the greatest GM in baseball history missed on trades. Mo has way more hits than misses. He also has allowed players to leave instead of overpaying them. We have traded young promising talent and how many have bit us in the ass so far? Not many if any at all.

We are lucky to have Mo.

[Mi_chief_fan]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Come on man the greatest GM in baseball history missed on trades. Mo has way more hits than misses. He also has allowed players to leave instead of overpaying them. We have traded young promising talent and how many have bit us in the ass so far? Not many if any at all.

We are lucky to have Mo.

He certainly has an opportunity to redeem himself this offseason, but let's be clear: trading just doesn't seem to be his top skill. Wasn't a fan of the Heyward trade when he made it, although it seems to have turned out OK, but I sure would like Shelby back now. The Moss trade, the Masterson trade, the Westbrook trade, and I still think he could've gotten more for Rasmus, although it turned out well.

In short: I trust him more in FA and drafting more so than trades. Although the Lackey trade was just brilliant. And I know how lucky we are to have Mo, but even when the trade was made, nobody outside of the cardinals broadcast booth liked it. I'm not sure they really did either, maybe Dan, Rick & Al were just toeing the company line.

[duncan_idaho]

Random thought today: I was trolling through FA lists and trying to project landing spots for guys, and came across one of my more favorite non-star players: John Jaso.

I tried to find a way to shoehorn him into the mix in KC, because he's a quality LH bat who has great OBP and offensive skills (ideal behind Sal Perez), but he wouldn't have enough PT opportunity in KC because 1B and DH are full here.

I did start thinking about him as a complementary piece in St. Louis, though.

If the Cardinals DO let Heyward walk, would Jaso be a nice fit as the backup C/part-time 1B?

Completely random thoughts of a huge baseball nerd...

[Pasta Little Brioni]

That would be delicious. Love that idea.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Random thought today: I was trolling through FA lists and trying to project landing spots for guys, and came across one of my more favorite non-star players: John Jaso.

I tried to find a way to shoehorn him into the mix in KC, because he's a quality LH bat who has great OBP and offensive skills (ideal behind Sal Perez), but he wouldn't have enough PT opportunity in KC because 1B and DH are full here.

I did start thinking about him as a complementary piece in St. Louis, though.

If the Cardinals DO let Heyward walk, would Jaso be a nice fit as the backup C/part-time 1B?

Completely random thoughts of a huge baseball nerd...

He actually seems like an ideal fit for the Jays to me taking the place of Smoak/Navarro. They have no LHBs as it is.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Random thought today: I was trolling through FA lists and trying to project landing spots for guys, and came across one of my more favorite non-star players: John Jaso.

I tried to find a way to shoehorn him into the mix in KC, because he's a quality LH bat who has great OBP and offensive skills (ideal behind Sal Perez), but he wouldn't have enough PT opportunity in KC because 1B and DH are full here.

I did start thinking about him as a complementary piece in St. Louis, though.

If the Cardinals DO let Heyward walk, would Jaso be a nice fit as the backup C/part-time 1B?

Completely random thoughts of a huge baseball nerd...

I like the way you think,

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Mi_chief_fan

He certainly has an opportunity to redeem himself this offseason, but let's be clear: trading just doesn't seem to be his top skill. Wasn't a fan of the Heyward trade when he made it, although it seems to have turned out OK, but I sure would like Shelby back now.

We just couldn't go into the season with an unproven RF when our offense wasn't good to start with. We had no choice.

Originally Posted by Mi_chief_fan

The Moss trade, the Masterson trade, the Westbrook trade, and I still think he could've gotten more for Rasmus, although it turned out well.

Masterson and Moss were totally swing and misses. We got a lot of innings out of Westbrook.

Originally Posted by Mi_chief_fan

I still think he could've gotten more for Rasmus, although it turned out well.

I was agaisnt the trade. We could have go more for Rasmus but not after Larussa went public with his comments about Rasmus. No way do we win the World Series without that trade. So that makes it the best trade possible when looking at the outcomes. The Royals and Cueto in the same catagory Lamb abd Finnegan go on to star so what.

Originally Posted by Mi_chief_fan

In short: I trust him more in FA and drafting more so than trades. Although the Lackey trade was just brilliant. And I know how lucky we are to have Mo, but even when the trade was made, nobody outside of the cardinals broadcast booth liked it. I'm not sure they really did either, maybe Dan, Rick & Al were just toeing the company line.

I was in the WTF majority with the Lackey trade also. Thats why Mo is valuable. He will do whats not popular if he thinks its best for the team. Trades have been more hot than miss. Wallace for Holliday etc.

[KChiefs1]

Any chance the Cards & the Royals make a trade this offseason? You guys have some nice OF talent that KC could use.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Any chance the Cards & the Royals make a trade this offseason? You guys have some nice OF talent that KC could use.

We need pitching which you don't have a lot of and 1B or a 3B and move our 3B to 1B. Don't think there is a match there?

[O.city]

So they appear to be sniffing pretty hard around chris davis, which makes sense I guess if you beleive he has his adHD under control and can stay focused.

I'd assume that makes resigning heyward not an option.