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Old 09-10-2007, 11:50 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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*** OFFICIAL Top 5 Draft Choice Watch ***
Since my playoff predictions will probably have little bearing on the Chiefs this year, I thought I'd do a top 5 draft choice watch instead.

After week 1, I project that we have a 16.5% chance for a top 5 draft choice. This is probably lower than actual, because my early season power ratings are heavily weighted by the Vegas expectation of 7.5 wins this season.
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Old 12-16-2007, 01:12 AM   #61
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Old 12-16-2007, 01:28 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by the Talking Bong
the 3rd pick would give us so much leverage...please please please

and the price tag for that pick, YIKES!!
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Old 12-16-2007, 01:29 AM   #63
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Old 12-16-2007, 01:41 AM   #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazyCoffey
and the price tag for that pick, YIKES!!
So what, if we get an impact player it would be worth it.
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Old 12-16-2007, 01:45 AM   #65
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So what, if we get an impact player it would be worth it.
And just what are the stats for top five picks that become impact players over even just the last 10 years?
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Old 12-16-2007, 01:46 AM   #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazyCoffey
And just what are the stats for top five picks that become impact players over even just the last 10 years?

When one has the chance to draft an elite player , you take it no questions asked
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Old 12-16-2007, 01:51 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare
When one has the chance to draft an elite player , you take it no questions asked
I'm only saying, don't bank your hopes on an "elite COLLEGE player"
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Old 12-16-2007, 02:08 AM   #68
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Why is everyone so freaking scared to draft in the top 5? They cost to much, they will bust. Big freaking deal. There is much as a chance they will turn out good as they will sucking the joint up.
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Old 12-16-2007, 02:15 AM   #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazyCoffey
I'm only saying, don't bank your hopes on an "elite COLLEGE player"

Why's that?
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Old 12-16-2007, 02:15 AM   #70
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2007
1 Oakland JaMarcus Russell QB
2 Detroit Calvin Johnson WR
3 Cleveland Joe Thomas OT
4 Tampa Bay Gaines Adams DE
5 Arizona Levi Brown OT
----------------------------------------------
2006
1 Houston Mario Williams - DE
2 New Orleans Reggie Bush - RB
3 Tennessee Vince Young - QB
4 New York D'Brickashaw Ferguson - OT
5 Green Bay AJ Hawk - OLB
----------------------------------------------
2005
1 San Francisco Alex Smith - QB
2 Miami Ronnie Brown - RB
3 Cleveland Braylon Edwards - WR
4 Chicago Cedric Benson - RB
5 Tampa Bay Carnell Williams - RB
----------------------------------------------
2004
1 San Diego Eli Manning - QB
2 Oakland Robert Gallery - OT
3 Arizona Larry Fitzgerald - WR
4 New York (G) Phillip Rivers - QB
5 Washington Sean Taylor - FS


Pretty much all of these guys are better than anybody the Chiefs have right now. Except Sean Taylor, who is admittedly not very athletic anymore. It's pretty sad that we whiffed so badly on our last top five choice. Especially considering we traded up.
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Old 12-16-2007, 02:26 AM   #71
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Pretty much all of these guys are better than anybody the Chiefs have right now. Except Sean Taylor, who is admittedly not very athletic anymore. It's pretty sad that we whiffed so badly on our last top five choice. Especially considering we traded up.
Sims was chosen #6.

Here are the only top 5 picks the Chiefs have had since the merger.

1989 - Derrick Thomas
1988 - Neil Smith
1984 - Bill Maas
1979 - Mike Bell
1978 - Art Still
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Old 12-16-2007, 02:35 AM   #72
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And just what are the stats for top five picks that become impact players over even just the last 10 years?
Here is the list from 1997 to 2006

1997
Orlando Pace
Darrell Russell
Shawn Springs
Peter Boulware
Bryant Westbrook

1998
Peyton Manning
Ryan Leaf
Andre Wadsworth
Charles Woodson
Curtis Enis

1999
Tim Couch
Donovan McNabb
Akili Smith
Edgerrian James
Ricky Williams

2000
Courtney Brown
LaVar Arrington
Chris Samuels
Peter Warrick
Jamal Lewis

2001
Michael Vick
Leonard Davis
Gerard Warren
Justin Smith
Ladainian Tomlinson

2002
David Carr
Julius Peppers
Joey Harrington
Mike Williams
Quentin Jammer

2003
Carson Palmer
Charles Rogers
Andre Johnson
Dewayne Robinson
Terrence Newman

2004
Eli Manning
Robert Gallery
Larry Fitzgerald
Phillip Rivers
Sean Taylor

2005
Alex Smith
Ronnie Brown
Braylon Edwards
Cedric Benson
Cadillac Williams

2006
Mario Williams
Reggie Bush
Vince Young
D’Brickshaw Ferguson
AJ Hawk

Here is the stats:
23 Superstars
Andre Johnson
Braylon Edwards
Carson Palmer
Charles Woodson
Chris Samuels
Donovan McNabb
Edgerrian James
Jamal Lewis
Julius Peppers
Ladainian Tomlinson
Larry Fitzgerald
LaVar Arrington
Mario Williams
Michael Vick
Orlando Pace
Peter Boulware
Peyton Manning
Phillip Rivers
Reggie Bush
Ricky Williams
Sean Taylor
Shawn Springs
Vince Young

13 - Solid NFL players
AJ Hawk
Alex Smith
Cadillac Williams
Cedric Benson
D’Brickshaw Ferguson
Darrell Russell
Dewayne Robinson
Eli Manning
Justin Smith
Leonard Davis
Quentin Jammer
Ronnie Brown
Terrence Newman

14 - Busts (5 of them QBs)
Andre Wadsworth
Bryant Westbrook
Charles Rogers
Courtney Brown
Curtis Enis
Gerard Warren
Mike Williams
Peter Warrick
Robert Gallery
Akili Smith
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Ryan Leaf
Tim Couch

72% chance of getting a solid NFL player in the top 5. Throw out the QB position, which is 12, and its about a 76% chance.
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Old 12-16-2007, 03:07 AM   #73
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Old 12-16-2007, 03:28 AM   #74
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We got one of the teams with the best drafting records along with us in the top 5 (if we manage to get there). So does anyone think that the Patriots (arguably the best run franchise the last decade) will keep their top 5 pick?
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Old 12-16-2007, 03:48 AM   #75
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We got one of the teams with the best drafting records along with us in the top 5 (if we manage to get there). So does anyone think that the Patriots (arguably the best run franchise the last decade) will keep their top 5 pick?

Yes they will, and they'll pick McFadden
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