Poop Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com - Page 5

Buzzsaw · 11-04-2010, 01:32 PM

I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Code:

AFC West
Team	Rec	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
KC	5-2	29.2%	11.4	19.1%	24.9%	23.2%	25.5%	0.5%	1.0%	92.7%	44.0%	1.5%	94.2%	0.4%
SD	3-5	17.0%	8.0	0.0%	0.6%	1.4%	2.9%	1.8%	7.3%	4.9%	0.7%	9.1%	14.0%	4.0%
OAK	4-4	-9.1%	7.0	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	1.6%	2.3%	0.2%	1.9%	4.2%	2.3%
DEN	2-6	-24.2%	4.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	-0.3%

The table's a little messed up, here's a screen

Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team

* Reaching the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Super Bowl

Code:

 Conf App  Conf Win    SB Win
NYG	50.3%	30.6%	16.0%
KC	43.1%	23.6%	13.1%
NE	41.1%	22.1%	12.0%
PIT	36.6%	19.4%	10.4%
PHI	32.7%	18.8%	10.3%
ATL	46.0%	22.5%	9.6%
GB	30.7%	14.4%	6.5%
TEN	18.3%	8.8%	5.0%
IND	17.2%	7.8%	3.8%
NYJ	17.7%	8.0%	3.7%
NO	17.7%	7.2%	2.8%
BAL	14.2%	5.8%	2.6%
MIA	5.7%	2.4%	1.2%
TB	6.8%	2.0%	0.7%
SEA	6.6%	1.9%	0.6%
SD	2.7%	1.1%	0.5%
HOU	2.6%	1.0%	0.3%
SF	1.8%	0.5%	0.2%
WAS	1.7%	0.5%	0.2%
CHI	1.6%	0.5%	0.2%
STL	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
MIN	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
DET	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%
OAK	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
ARI	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
JAC	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
CLE	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
CIN	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Sassy Squatch · 11-04-2010, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

Ahh but see I was not an asshole when I first got here. I only followed the path your people lead me through.

Personally though, I don't give a **** if you like me or not. I have already been requested to stick around also via rep from a couple people so obviously not everyone here is all that bad.

Please dont classify me in with "these" people. I only joined about a week ago and have therefore only seen you act like an asshat in defense of others posting negatively towards you...

**Rausch** · 11-04-2010, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

That is my mistake then. I thought...

Stop.

Don't...

**Rausch** · 11-04-2010, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Superturtle

Please dont classify me in with "these" people.

Enjoy your stay...

JTagg7754 · 11-04-2010, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Superturtle

The Raiders definitely aren't as good as their numbers suggest. You laid the ****smack on an ill-prepared Broncos team, who proceeded to then get beat by the 49ers, who we laid a ****smack on earlier in the year. If you watched either of the Colts or Texans games, we were pretty damn competitive with them.

We also competed w/ the Texans. Had the defense played like they did lately and had we made the OLine changes we recently did, maybe we would've beat them.

Also, do me a favor, how about you find my post in here or on RFN where I said Oakland is any good. Go do that for me. When you find it..... well you won't.... but you can post it here if you want.

Look what someone over there had to say about me today:

Quote:

Originally Posted by stubone

Don't waste your breath on Jtagg-- he never has anything to say positive about the Raiders. I was just arguing with him last week and always is ripping on the Raiders.

Yeah, I don't think I'm nearly the homer some of the douchebags over here wanted to assume.

Sassy Squatch · 11-04-2010, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

Enjoy your stay...

**Gadzooks** · 11-04-2010, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGuardian

The Chargers aren't playing with the big boys right now either.

Now go get yer shinebox bitch.

Keep him here!

TheGuardian · 11-04-2010, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gadzooks

Keep him here!

ToxSocks · 11-04-2010, 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

Ahh but see I was not an asshole when I first got here. I only followed the path your people lead me through.

Personally though, I don't give a **** if you like me or not. I have already been requested to stick around also via rep from a couple people so obviously not everyone here is all that bad.

OF course you are going to be asked to stick around. We don't boot people for having different opinions and we actually welcome rival fans. It's obvious that you don't understand how this board works. That's why you are catching so much shit.

All of the "die in a fire" shit is just Chiefsplanet humor, but you're taking it like it's a real threat. Hence the humor they find in it.

This board has very few homers, yet you insist it's full of homers. More reason why people don't like you. You don't know what the **** you're talking about.

No one is saying that Sunday won't be a tough game. We all know it will be. Yet you insist otherwise.

And the fact that you won't acknowledge of consistant this team has been just makes you look foolish.

And the whole "you haven't played anyone" shit is just that, shit. They took the Colts to the wire IN INDY. They beat the shit out of the Texans all game long until the Chiefs melted down in the 4th.

They have been blown out by no one and beat all the teams they're suppose to beat.

Get your head out of your ass and you'll see that this place if full of great, realistic football talk.

You come in here attacking and talking shit and undermining the teams success and you're bound to bring the homer out of anyone.

What the **** else are they going to do? bow down to the Raider fan during Raiders week and say, "yeah, Chiefs suck". Of course you're going to get people pulling up everything they can in defense of your boneheaded, off the wall bullshit.

Quit dreaming and stop whining.

Sweet Daddy Hate · 11-04-2010, 02:34 PM

Meh. He's more palatable than Chumpionsucker.

ToxSocks · 11-04-2010, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ROR

Meh. He's more palatable than Chumpionsucker.

That guy can't even be taken seriously. I don't even respond to him anymore. He's just an idiot.

At least this guy will eventually be a good poster here like our other Raider fans. Chumpshit is just a dumber Knowmo.

Hydrae · 11-04-2010, 02:38 PM

I want to know where our "regular" Raider fans are at this week.

**Mr. Flopnuts** · 11-04-2010, 02:38 PM

Raiders951 is the best of all the new Raiders' fans from this week, and it's not even close.

Sassy Squatch · 11-04-2010, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Detoxing

That guy can't even be taken seriously. I don't even respond to him anymore. He's just an idiot.

At least this guy will eventually be a good poster here like our other Raider fans. Chumpshit is just a dumber Knowmo.

I hate to ask this, but who is Knowmo? Seems like the end all. be all of trollism.

**Mr. Flopnuts** · 11-04-2010, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hydrae

I want to know where our "regular" Raider fans are at this week.

My guess is they're embarrassed by this new influx of cock suckers.

ToxSocks · 11-04-2010, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hydrae

I want to know where our "regular" Raider fans are at this week.

I was thinking the same shit. Where is Ugly Duck? That's a good Raiders fan....

11-04-2010, 01:32 PM
Buzzsaw Starter Join Date: May 2005 Casino cash: $10004900	Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC Compiled by Mike Harris The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion. Code: AFC West Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE KC 5-2 29.2% 11.4 19.1% 24.9% 23.2% 25.5% 0.5% 1.0% 92.7% 44.0% 1.5% 94.2% 0.4% SD 3-5 17.0% 8.0 0.0% 0.6% 1.4% 2.9% 1.8% 7.3% 4.9% 0.7% 9.1% 14.0% 4.0% OAK 4-4 -9.1% 7.0 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 1.6% 2.3% 0.2% 1.9% 4.2% 2.3% DEN 2-6 -24.2% 4.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.3% The table's a little messed up, here's a screen Playoff Scenarios This report lists the odds of each team * Reaching the Conference Championship Game * Winning the Conference Championship Game * Winning the Super Bowl Code: Conf App Conf Win SB Win NYG 50.3% 30.6% 16.0% KC 43.1% 23.6% 13.1% NE 41.1% 22.1% 12.0% PIT 36.6% 19.4% 10.4% PHI 32.7% 18.8% 10.3% ATL 46.0% 22.5% 9.6% GB 30.7% 14.4% 6.5% TEN 18.3% 8.8% 5.0% IND 17.2% 7.8% 3.8% NYJ 17.7% 8.0% 3.7% NO 17.7% 7.2% 2.8% BAL 14.2% 5.8% 2.6% MIA 5.7% 2.4% 1.2% TB 6.8% 2.0% 0.7% SEA 6.6% 1.9% 0.6% SD 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% HOU 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% SF 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% WAS 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% CHI 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% STL 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% MIN 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% DET 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% OAK 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ARI 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% JAC 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% CLE 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% CIN 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
Posts: 331

11-04-2010, 02:34 PM	#69
Sweet Daddy Hate Unsparing Join Date: Aug 2008 Casino cash: $10004900	Meh. He's more palatable than Chumpionsucker. __________________ 1. Merciless, severe. 2. Given freely and generously. 100% refusal to overrate 20 year Head Coaches with ZERO **ing rings as a Head Coach. CP's Official Professor of 'Dem Blues for 2019/2020!**
Posts: 77,135

11-04-2010, 02:38 PM	#71
Hydrae Sandbox: Leander Lasercats Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Austin, Tx Casino cash: $2077000	I want to know where our "regular" Raider fans are at this week.
Posts: 14,694