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Old 11-01-2014, 07:04 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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2014 Playoff prediction thread
It looks like we will be in the thick of the playoff race for the rest of the season. So I'll keep an updated prognosis of our chances in this thread. These are made with my software, available here: http://nfl-forecast.com


After week 8:
Chances of winning the division: 10%
Chances of making the playoffs: 52%
Median number of projected wins: 9

After week 9:
Chances of winning the division: 19%
Chances of making the playoffs: 57%
Median number of projected wins: 10

After week 10:
Chances of winning the division: 17%
Chances of making the playoffs: 71%
Median number of projected wins: 10

After week 11:
Chances of winning the division: 36%
Chances of making the playoffs: 82%
Median number of projected wins: 11
Last edited by cdcox; 11-19-2014 at 07:36 PM..
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:35 PM   #61
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1986. That was the last time KC won in Buffalo before last year. And those are the only two wins the Chiefs have there since the merger. Overall they are 2-10.
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:35 PM   #62
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The good news is that while he's always good for two touchdowns a game, he's also usually good for two picks.
.
Not this year.

In fact there's a lot of bias in your statement.

He's never been a turnover prone QB. His career INT% is 2.6

I'll give you one guess what other QB has a career INT% of 2.6.

I think Buffalo beats us simply because Orton > Smith....that's when some here will start to realize what the smart Chiefs fans have known since the trade...
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:39 PM   #63
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Not this year.

In fact there's a lot of bias in your statement.

He's never been a turnover prone QB. His career INT% is 2.6

I'll give you one guess what other QB has a career INT% of 2.6.

I think Buffalo beats us simply because Orton > Smith....that's when some here will start to realize what the smart Chiefs fans have known since the trade...
Thats an interesting bit of info, maybe I'm wrong in the big picture, but it sure seems like every time I look at his line its 2td 2int or 2td 1int.

Truth is, I've always kinda liked Orton... the guy never gets his just due, he's actually pretty damn good.
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:41 PM   #64
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Orton > Smith
I can't wait for Bills week, so we can watch you have this argument for the next 7 days.

SARCASM
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:41 PM   #65
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Thats an interesting bit of info, maybe I'm wrong in the big picture, but it sure seems like every time I look at his line its 2td 2int or 2td 1int.

Truth is, I've always kinda liked Orton... the guy never gets his just due, he's actually pretty damn good.
He's a guy who's made his career between the 20's, and slams his dick in the drawer in the red zone.

He's playing well right now. But the air will come out of the Orton balloon. It always does.
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:43 PM   #66
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The Chiefs should be a playoff team.

But I look at that absolute horse's ass of an AFC North division and realize that even the worst teams are on the same level as the Chiefs. The Chiefs have a tough schedule. Their competitors do not. I think the playoffs are a longshot this year. Sorry to be a downer. I don't think it's because the Chiefs aren't any good. It's because their schedule ****ing sucks.
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:44 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
He's a guy who's made his career between the 20's, and slams his dick in the drawer in the red zone.
Career TD%

Orton: 3.8%

Smith: 3.9%

Looks like they both have issues throwing TDs.
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:44 PM   #68
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Orton's weakness was always the red zone. He had the same problem with us. He could chuck it up and down the field between the 20s just fine.
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:45 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
I can't wait for Bills week, so we can watch you have this argument for the next 7 days.

SARCASM
He's basically knowmo at this point. Dude should have his own thread, problem is I don't know who would opennit.
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:47 PM   #70
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Career TD%

Orton: 3.8%

Smith: 3.9%

Looks like they both have issues throwing TDs.
Smith's had an outstanding run game in both SF (Harbaugh years) and KC.

Smith doesn't need to carry the team. Orton does.
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:48 PM   #71
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The Orton argument is really the cherry on top of all the stupid arguments about QBs this place has ever had. Guy didn't even want to be here, tried to sabotage the waiver claim through the media... and first chance he got he left town and went to hold a clipboard in Dallas. Way to choose your heroes.
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:49 PM   #72
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that's when some here will start to realize what the smart Chiefs fans have known since the trade...
Smart? You are creating arguments that otherwise would not exist, Blackbob.
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:50 PM   #73
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Smith can't carry the team. Orton does.
Fixed.
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:51 PM   #74
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Roughly a 25% chance

Wrong


That would assume about equal odds to win the game

We will probably be underdogs, quite likely 2:1

52% to make the playoffs, presuming wildcard birth

2:1 against in 1st game

Would be closer to 15% than 25

Likely it is somewhere closer to 15 % than 25.

I'm guessing less even.
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Old 11-01-2014, 09:53 PM   #75
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The good news is every year we've won in Buffalo we've made the playoffs. So if we win next week, we can shut this thread down.
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