Dumb idea of the day: Let Alex Smith play out his contract

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Dragonocho

Thought the Cap was $130 million this year?

Smith's value in Dorsey's estimate is probably $ 12 million. That would leave enough for, say, a defense or something crazy like that.

If he doesn't sign an extension before the draft it will be telling if the Chiefs don't draft a prospect at some point. If they don't I'd imagine they think they have something in Tyler Bray.

$12M would be WELL below market value.

[Dragonocho]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

$12M would be WELL below market value.

Yep. You are right. Market value (external equity) will be. It's inflated.

I was trying to say that relative to a $130 million cap, he is worth about $12 million (internal equity).

Question to me is how much of a premium does Dorsey put on a quality starting QB because every dollar you spend on him is a dollar not available for talent at other positions.

[keg in kc]

Yeah, I'm sure they're going to let him walk after giving up two picks for him.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

Yeah, I'm sure they're going to let him walk after giving up two picks for him.

Depending on how much he wants, they might have to.

Honestly, it's a tough situation for the Chiefs. They don't have too much cap space and they have other guys that need extensions right now.

If they can't get a deal done with him and he goes out and explodes next year, they might not be able to afford him.

If he tanks, they'll be able to afford him but they might not WANT him anymore.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Depending on how much he wants, they might have to.

Honestly, it's a tough situation for the Chiefs. They don't have too much cap space and they have other guys that need extensions right now.

If they can't get a deal done with him and he goes out and explodes next year, they might not be able to afford him.

If he tanks, they'll be able to afford him but they might not WANT him anymore.

I think they'll have a deal done by camp. Smith's their centerpiece. And I think he's one of that ever-more-rare group of guys who'd be willing to do a team-friendly contract (not to be misread as a discount deal). I think whatever holdup there is now (if there is one) is probably more about determining the general cap situation, and the more names disappear off the market, the closer Smith's deal comes to fruition.

It actually wouldn't surprise me if his extension is announced completely out of the blue on some random day in the next couple of months. Just because we're not hearing much doesn't mean there isn't much going on...

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

I think they'll have a deal done by camp. Smith's their centerpiece. And I think he's one of that ever-more-rare group of guys who'd be willing to do a team-friendly contract (not to be misread as a discount deal). I think whatever holdup there is now (if there is one) is probably more about determining the general cap situation, and the more names disappear off the market, the closer Smith's deal comes to fruition.

It actually wouldn't surprise me if his extension is announced completely out of the blue on some random day in the next couple of months. Just because we're not hearing much doesn't mean there isn't much going on...

Totally agree with all of this.

Ultimately, this is why you trade for a guy like Alex Smith instead of a guy like Jay Cutler...

[Eleazar]

He will likely be our QB as long as Andy Reid is here, so we may as well get him cheaper if we can.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Cochise

He will likely be our QB as long as Andy Reid is here, so we may as well get him cheaper if we can.

I for one hope Reid is here A LOT longer than Alex Smith. Just saying...

[Chiefnj2]

Rule #1 of the nfl - get a franchise QB.

I don't love Smith or Reid but they are perfect for each other. You have no option but to pay him. Once you have your QB the rest is relatively easy. If you don't have the QB you spend your time and money ineffectively trying to patch your QBs shortcomings.

[tecumseh]

Alex showed me everything I need to see. 5-6 year deal. But if they don't build that Oline he'll be wasted.

[RealSNR]

I can't remember which rumor from which poster said this, but in the negotiations apparently Alex doesn't want a Cutler or a Kaepernick-level of contract. He wants to be paid and paid well, but he doesn't want to push the team into a position where they suffer to acquire other players.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he signs a reasonable extension where the guaranteed money is under $30 million. Something like 5 years $65 million with $25 million guaranteed.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by SNR

I can't remember which rumor from which poster said this, but in the negotiations apparently Alex doesn't want a Cutler or a Kaepernick-level of contract. He wants to be paid and paid well, but he doesn't want to push the team into a position where they suffer to acquire other players.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he signs a reasonable extension where the guaranteed money is under $30 million. Something like 5 years $65 million with $25 million guaranteed.

That's what I expect from Alex Smith and it's what everyone SHOULD expect.

It's the biggest reason you go out and get a guy like him.

Good enough to win, not good enough to destroy your cap.

[bevischief]

Originally Posted by SNR

I can't remember which rumor from which poster said this, but in the negotiations apparently Alex doesn't want a Cutler or a Kaepernick-level of contract. He wants to be paid and paid well, but he doesn't want to push the team into a position where they suffer to acquire other players.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he signs a reasonable extension where the guaranteed money is under $30 million. Something like 5 years $65 million with $25 million guaranteed.

I remember this as well.

[temper11]

Originally Posted by SNR

I can't remember which rumor from which poster said this, but in the negotiations apparently Alex doesn't want a Cutler or a Kaepernick-level of contract. He wants to be paid and paid well, but he doesn't want to push the team into a position where they suffer to acquire other players.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he signs a reasonable extension where the guaranteed money is under $30 million. Something like 5 years $65 million with $25 million guaranteed.

I don't know if it was I you are referring to, but I did indeed post this based on an interview with him on 810. He very specifically said that he'd already made his money and didn't want to break the bank. He wants a superbowl.

Two things however might play against this statement.

1) Condon (sp) is his agent, and needs to think about his reputation as an agent. It is in Condon's best interest to get as much as he can get. Let's say Alex is sincere and signs some team friendly deal that is well below what Cutler received. How does that make Condon look as an agent?

2) While I honestly believe Smith is 100% genuine in wanting to do a team friendly deal, he also wants to be the starter for several years. If he signs TOO friendly of a deal, then he'll essentially make it too easy for the team to replace him if some hyped hotshot gets pulled in the draft (he already has some experience with that). So on one hand he wants to do a team friendly deal to help the team get to and win a superbowl, but on the other, he wants a team to commit to him. (at least that's the way I see it).

[Dave Lane]

Originally Posted by SNR

I can't remember which rumor from which poster said this, but in the negotiations apparently Alex doesn't want a Cutler or a Kaepernick-level of contract. He wants to be paid and paid well, but he doesn't want to push the team into a position where they suffer to acquire other players.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he signs a reasonable extension where the guaranteed money is under $30 million. Something like 5 years $65 million with $25 million guaranteed.

I think thats a fair level of compensation. Anything north of $15m a year I think is too much.