Thanks! And thoughts on the final draft grade?

[JPH83]

Just wanted to give a hat tip to a few people here for their work over the draft season.

Dante for the visits tracker and insane work on getting info on the picks up so quickly

Crow for the immense detail and knowledge provided on prospects. I always learn stuff from you each year. Much appreciated.

Staylor for the mock draft. Amazed we made it, thanks for putting in the effort to keep it on the road man

Coach for starting loads of interesting threads to ponder and general enthusiasm for all things draft. You seem like a real solid dude as well.

And then there's a load of you who know loads more than I do about scheme fits and specific skillsets etc.which includes those above, but also DJ, Duncan, Chris Meck, Run...probably loads of others.

Thanks all, I really enjoy this time of year, and I'm pretty happy with how this year's draft has gone. Reckon I'd give it an -A. What do you think?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by fuzzy

Good post. Those pressure stats are brutal.

The whole draft hinges on Simmons. Everybody could be completely and totally bust, but if Simmons hits then the draft is a massive success. The whole draft is about Simmons.

It really isn't.

Josh Simmons can have the negative outcome I fear is coming, and the draft can still be a massive success if Gillotte becomes a good starter, Norman-Lott is a productive member of the rotation, Royals and Smith become big-time playmakers for the offense, and Nohl Williams and Bassa are strong contributors on D. Or if like 4 of those things happen.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I think you’re spot on here. Like it or not the Chiefs are desperate and a guy as talented as Josh Simmons was is never gonna be available to this team picking so late so this is an outlier.

I think the extra pick from Sneed and the Chiefs not trading away assets, but rather gaining one, helped the risk allocation for them.

We’ve had 7 LT’s in 4 years since Eric Fisher ruptured his Achilles. They have done everything possible to try to fix tackle using a 1st, 2nd and two 3rd’s as well as paying top dollar for Taylor and none it has brought the dividends they hoped for.

Without injury I’d guarantee this kid is a top 10 pick in this draft and everyone from Nick Saban, Matt Miller, Todd McShay and Louis Riddick echoed those comments.

They’re banking on him being *at worst* a decent playable LT that is young, and man even an average LT would such a dramatic upgrade for this offense.

Per the analytics, LT was responsible for 34% of pressure responsibility last year, which was over 20% higher than the 2nd worst team at 28%. Keep in mind that the offense had to have training wheels put on it and have half of the plays taken out bc of the LT and injuries to skill players, so that 34% may be a little kind for what reality showed on tape.

They’re very desperate and I can’t blame them

I'm more than fine saying that LT was the biggest problem on the OL last year.

If we can also acknowledge that based on those same stats, PM was the 2nd worst QB in the entire NFL in creating his own pressure. Nix was the only guy in the league who was responsible for a larger percentage of the pressures against than Mahomes.

Nix was a rookie with a steady OL so it stands to reason that he'd be responsible for a fairly high percentage of the pressures against him.

PM had a pretty serious issue at LT and has a ton of experience at this point.

An average OT can make things easier for him, yes. But he did a lot to make things harder for himself last year and he absolutely must improve in that regard. Not his OL, not his weapons - HIM.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

It really isn't.

Josh Simmons can have the negative outcome I fear is coming, and the draft can still be a massive success if Gillotte becomes a good starter, Norman-Lott is a productive member of the rotation, Royals and Smith become big-time playmakers for the offense, and Nohl Williams and Bassa are strong contributors on D. Or if like 4 of those things happen.

And the failure of the pick could be massively mitigated by Moore being solid at LT.

This can be a good draft with a bad 1st round pick.

Which gets to the point that a few folks have made -- is the risk THAT bad when we're not really living or dying on the outcome?

I mean...I guess not. but if it doesn't work out, there's gonna be somebody that one of us wanted very badly who ends up a very good player and he...won't be here. That's the risk.

[fuzzy]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

It really isn't.

Josh Simmons can have the negative outcome I fear is coming, and the draft can still be a massive success if Gillotte becomes a good starter, Norman-Lott is a productive member of the rotation, Royals and Smith become big-time playmakers for the offense, and Nohl Williams and Bassa are strong contributors on D. Or if like 4 of those things happen.

And that leaves us with a Mahomes in his 30s taking a ton of blows to the head and body. Thus shortening his career and maybe cutting his prime in half.

The most valuable asset in the organization is Patrick Mahomes. I know what it's like to be in your mid 30s. The body doesn't recover from punishment like it used to. Mahomes got away with taking a lot of abuse last year because he is 29. That won't fly in the future.

Better start taking his blind side seriously.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by fuzzy

And that leaves us with a Mahomes in his 30s taking a ton of blows to the head and body. Thus shortening his career and maybe cutting his prime in half.

The most valuable asset in the organization is Patrick Mahomes. I know what it's like to be in your mid 30s. The body doesn't recover from punishment like it used to. Mahomes got away with taking a lot of abuse last year because he is 29. That won't fly in the future.

Better start taking his blind side seriously.

Newsflash: Even though the Chiefs drafted Josh Simmons, there is a good chance he is never very good. As in, not good enough to start at LT and even be average.

I know that MOST of Chiefs internet fandom is high on hopium about Simmons right now, but the guy is far, far from a sure thing.

There's a better chance that Jaylon Moore is a better LT in 2025 (and moving forward) than Josh Simmons is this year, or ever is.

[fuzzy]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Newsflash: Even though the Chiefs drafted Josh Simmons, there is a good chance he is never very good. As in, not good enough to start at LT and even be average.

I know that MOST of Chiefs internet fandom is high on hopium about Simmons right now, but the guy is far, far from a sure thing.

There's a better chance that Jaylon Moore is a better LT in 2025 (and moving forward) than Josh Simmons is this year, or ever is.

Simmons is the best Tackle in the draft. If he recovers from his injury will be a good player.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by fuzzy

Simmons is the best Tackle in the draft. If he recovers from his injury will be a good player.

The most highly rated LT in any given draft is still a bust about 1/3 of the time. And this was a particularly soft draft for LTs anyway.

And that 'best OT' statement is based on 6 games of tape against bad teams.

No, there's absolutely no way to take as a given that a healthy Simmons WILL be a good player.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by fuzzy

Simmons is the best Tackle in the draft. If he recovers from his injury will be a good player.

Maybe he was. He’s benefiting from his tape in 24 all being against meh competition, except for the game where he got hurt.

I’m not convinced he surpasses Will Campbell, who has three years of clean tape as a starting LT in the SEC.

But even if he fully recovers, you’re talking about a 1/3 chance he just isn’t good (bust rate for 1st round T).

And even if WOULD have become the top T, he still had the injury and we are far from a guarantee he recovers to the physical form he had before. The odds are against it, in fact.

[fuzzy]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Maybe he was. He’s benefiting from his tape in 24 all being against meh competition, except for the game where he got hurt.

I’m not convinced he surpasses Will Campbell, who has three years of clean tape as a starting LT in the SEC.

But even if he fully recovers, you’re talking about a 1/3 chance he just isn’t good (bust rate for 1st round T).

And even if WOULD have become the top T, he still had the injury and we are far from a guarantee he recovers to the physical form he had before. The odds are against it, in fact.

Yes and I'd imagine the bust rate for Tackle goes down if you are talking a top half of the round Tackle versus a bottom half of the round. Which is where Simmons would have gone had the knee injury not happened.

Basically, the better Tackle prospects go early in the 1st round.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The most highly rated LT in any given draft is still a bust about 1/3 of the time. And this was a particularly soft draft for LTs anyway.

And that 'best OT' statement is based on 6 games of tape against bad teams.

No, there's absolutely no way to take as a given that a healthy Simmons WILL be a good player.

In the spirit of fairness, you need to acknowledge at least that Simmons did start all of 2023 at LT for Ohio State, so he does have more than 6 total games there and against better competition in the 2nd half of 2023.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by fuzzy

Yes and I'd imagine the bust rate for Tackle goes down if you are talking a top half of the round Tackle versus a bottom half of the round. Which is where Simmons would have gone had the knee injury not happened.

Basically, the better Tackle prospects go early in the 1st round.

No shit? Guys that go earlier have fewer flaws and succeed more?

Believe DJ looked at this recently but maybe I’m off. I remember the review showed that even in the top 10, 1/2 of T taken do not end up as good T in the league.

If you look at the past 15 years, that holds up pretty evenly. Percentage gets lower if you limit the scope to players who were successful at LT.

Even taking a guy top 10, the odds of them being a quality LT are slightly worse than a coin flip.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Newsflash: Even though the Chiefs drafted Josh Simmons, there is a good chance he is never very good. As in, not good enough to start at LT and even be average.

I know that MOST of Chiefs internet fandom is high on hopium about Simmons right now, but the guy is far, far from a sure thing.

There's a better chance that Jaylon Moore is a better LT in 2025 (and moving forward) than Josh Simmons is this year, or ever is.

I just think that at this point, people refuse to see how great the odds are stacked against this working out and have decided to cling to optimism to the 10th degree. That's fine. I'm optimistic at this point as well, but I won't be blind to the fact that my optimism is much like when I buy a lottery ticket. There are incredibly unfavorable odds, but there's a chance. And if the ticket hits, it's life-altering. Most likely, though, I'll have to throw that ticket in the recycling bin.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

No shit? Guys that go earlier have fewer flaws and succeed more?

Believe DJ looked at this recently but maybe I’m off. I remember the review showed that even in the top 10, 1/2 of T taken do not end up as good T in the league.

If you look at the past 15 years, that holds up pretty evenly. Percentage gets lower if you limit the scope to players who were successful at LT.

Even taking a guy top 10, the odds of them being a quality LT are slightly worse than a coin flip.

The last figures I saw were that 59% of OTs drafted in round 1 end up being successful OTs in the league. I think it was 89% of all offensive linemen drafted in the 1st round that end up being successful offensive linemen. That means a good portion of tackles end up changing positions to be successful picks.

I'd guesstimate that 3/5's of OTs taken in round one are taken to be LTs. If 59% of that 60% are successful, then we have about 35% chance of drafting a LT and that player can stay at LT in the NFL and be successful. I don't think that number approaches 4/5's but if it does then you're looking at 47%. I think it' stands to reason no more than 40% then.

Apply the odds of him beating his injury at least in 2 years, then you're looking at about a 5% chance of hitting. That's better than my lottery example but it's worse than a 7th round pick.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by kccrow

The last figures I saw were that 59% of OTs drafted in round 1 end up being successful OTs in the league. I think it was 89% of all offensive linemen drafted in the 1st round that end up being successful offensive linemen. That means a good portion of tackles end up changing positions to be successful picks.

I'd guesstimate that 3/5's of OTs taken in round one are taken to be LTs. If 59% of that 60% are successful, then we have about 35% chance of drafting a LT and that player can stay at LT in the NFL and be successful. I don't think that number approaches 4/5's but if it does then you're looking at 47%. I think it' stands to reason no more than 40% then.

Apply the odds of him beating his injury at least in 2 years, then you're looking at about a 5% chance of hitting. That's better than my lottery example but it's worse than a 7th round pick.

It’s a good thing facts don’t care about my feelings.

The math on this is just painful.

[fuzzy]

Originally Posted by kccrow

The last figures I saw were that 59% of OTs drafted in round 1 end up being successful OTs in the league. I think it was 89% of all offensive linemen drafted in the 1st round that end up being successful offensive linemen. That means a good portion of tackles end up changing positions to be successful picks.

I'd guesstimate that 3/5's of OTs taken in round one are taken to be LTs. If 59% of that 60% are successful, then we have about 35% chance of drafting a LT and that player can stay at LT in the NFL and be successful. I don't think that number approaches 4/5's but if it does then you're looking at 47%. I think it' stands to reason no more than 40% then.

Apply the odds of him beating his injury at least in 2 years, then you're looking at about a 5% chance of hitting. That's better than my lottery example but it's worse than a 7th round pick.

Josh Simmons is not worth a 7 round pick. That's absurd.