Thanks! And thoughts on the final draft grade?

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

No shit? Guys that go earlier have fewer flaws and succeed more?

Believe DJ looked at this recently but maybe I’m off. I remember the review showed that even in the top 10, 1/2 of T taken do not end up as good T in the league.

If you look at the past 15 years, that holds up pretty evenly. Percentage gets lower if you limit the scope to players who were successful at LT.

Even taking a guy top 10, the odds of them being a quality LT are slightly worse than a coin flip.

The last figures I saw were that 59% of OTs drafted in round 1 end up being successful OTs in the league. I think it was 89% of all offensive linemen drafted in the 1st round that end up being successful offensive linemen. That means a good portion of tackles end up changing positions to be successful picks.

I'd guesstimate that 3/5's of OTs taken in round one are taken to be LTs. If 59% of that 60% are successful, then we have about 35% chance of drafting a LT and that player can stay at LT in the NFL and be successful. I don't think that number approaches 4/5's but if it does then you're looking at 47%. I think it' stands to reason no more than 40% then.

Apply the odds of him beating his injury at least in 2 years, then you're looking at about a 5% chance of hitting. That's better than my lottery example but it's worse than a 7th round pick.