Peyton vs. Perfection (Denver vs KC breakdown) MMQB

[Quesadilla Joe]

It's the Game Of The Year so far: the prolific Denver Broncos vs. the stingy Kansas City Chiefs. Can Peyton Manning and company hand K.C. its first loss?

http://mmqb.si.com/2013/11/14/denver...eyton-manning/


This AFC West showdown between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs is as good as it gets for football in November. No division rivals have ever squared off with fewer than two losses between them so late in the season. The Broncos (8-1) are scoring an obscene 41.2 points per game, by far the best in the NFL. The Chiefs (9-0) are giving up just 12.3 points per contest, also a league best. As Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton once taught us, something’s gotta give.

Broncos offense vs. Chiefs defense

1. Pressuring Peyton

A hot topic right now is Peyton Manning’s protection. It hasn’t been great in recent weeks, which is to be somewhat expected given that anchor Ryan Clady (IR) has been replaced by Chris Clark. The 28-year-old undrafted journeyman has given up a few critical blind-side hits, though he’s not the only culprit on this struggling line. Right tackle Orlando Franklin also has been caught flat-footed a few times. Manning, with precise pocket movement and rapid progression-read ability, is generally able to overcome shoddy protection. But two bum ankles—plus copious bumps and bruises on his 37-year-old-body—make eluding pressure a taller order these days.

The Chiefs know how to apply pressure. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston give defensive coordinator Bob Sutton the rare privilege of scheming with dynamic rushers from both edges. One of the two almost always faces one-on-one pass blocking. Both might see it frequently at the same time on Sunday night, as Manning prefers to go with a minimum five-man protection in order to have five eligible receivers at his disposal. (This is one reason why running back Knowshon Moreno catches so many short passes.)

Kansas City has been one of the most complex and successful blitzing teams in the NFL this season, particularly on 3rd-and-long when Sutton loves to play dime and send speedy corners and safeties after the quarterback. Though a sizeable chunk of Kansas City’s league-leading 36 sacks have come out of complex pressure packages, don’t expect Sutton to use a lot of them against the Broncos. Most defensive coordinators refrain from blitzing Manning. The Chargers had some success with it, but they only called for pressure in the second half after it became apparent that their defensive backs could not compete with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. Kansas City’s defensive backs can challenge those receivers.

2. The Man-to-Man Matchups

The closest any defense has come to slowing Denver was Indianapolis’s, when cornerbacks Vontae Davis, Greg Toler and Darius Butler stymied Manning’s receivers for most of the first three quarters in Week 7. (Injuries to Davis and Butler changed Indy’s fortunes down the stretch.) The Broncos know how to beat man coverage—they’ve mastered barely legal pick plays and intertwined crossing patterns—but they have yet to face a man-coverage defense as sturdy as the Chiefs’. At the same time, Kansas City hasn’t faced an offense with these types of weapons. The following individual matchups will likely determine the outcome of the game:

Outside: CBs Sean Smith and Marcus Cooper vs. WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker

Smith is lanky and physical, though he’s been a bit shaky as of late. (Receiver Stevie Johnson was right when he said that Smith’s 98-yard pick-six against Buffalo was “lucky.” Smith was in position to make that interception only because Johnson had juked him so far sideways off the line of scrimmage.) When Smith plays with discipline, he’s one of the best boundary defenders in the game. But if he gets antsy against double moves—something Thomas and Decker perform extremely well—he could wind up in trouble.

On the other side, Cooper, a seventh-round pick of the Niners this past spring, is a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate. He has an innate sense for playing both the ball and the receiver in isolated coverage against vertical routes on the outside. He also has good closing quickness when working back to the ball, especially for someone who is 6-2. For all of Cooper’s merits, don’t be surprised if Manning still tests him early. The young corner did get beat twice due to missteps in his press-jam technique in Kansas City’s last game.

Inside: CB Brandon Flowers vs. slot receiver Wes Welker

Since Week 5, Flowers, one of the NFL’s best boundary corners, has been playing the slot in nickel and dime. So far, the results have been stellar. Flowers is a surprisingly good blitzer, and more importantly, he knows how to apply his physicality in the wider spaces that come with playing inside. Most corners, even elite ones, can’t do that. We’ll find out on Sunday whether Flowers really is a slot aficionado. He’s yet to face an inside receiver of Welker’s caliber.

Inside: SS Eric Berry vs. TE Julius Thomas

Berry has transformed from a liability to an asset covering tight ends—though he hasn’t been severely tested except for when he controlled Jason Witten one-on-one in Week 2. The Broncos have the most dynamic tight end in the AFC not named Rob Gronkowski. And their system does a good job getting Thomas open by design.


3. Building Offense

Contrary to popular belief, the Broncos don’t do many complicated things offensively. Instead, they do many simple things really well. One is called “building offense,” meaning they use certain plays early in the game to set up other plays later in the game. Defenders think they’re spotting something familiar, but they’re actually being set up to be exploited. The good thing about being a man-based defense (like the Chiefs) is you’re a less susceptible to this sort of deception because coverage defenders don’t see the ball or route designs to begin with; their focus is solely on their man.

This doesn’t mean the Broncos won’t try to build offense. Instead of doing it with a combination of two or three different routes, they’ll do it on a more individualized basis. We saw a great example of this with Demaryius Thomas scoring two touchdowns at San Diego.





Kansas City’s cornerbacks must concentrate on getting stops, not interceptions. If they start cheating against Denver’s routes, they’ll get burned by a twist.


Chiefs offense vs. Broncos defense

There’s a perception that Denver’s defense is iffy, maybe even porous. That’s only because its two bad performances happened to coincide with the team’s two most-watched games: Week 5 at Dallas, and Week 7 at Indy. Take out those contests and this group is allowing a respectable 21.6 points per game.

The Chiefs lack the same offensive firepower that the Cowboys or Colts have. Their system hinges on Jamaal Charles being able to turn the outside corner in the ground game, and converting a few screens into first downs. Their passing game is limited, mainly because Alex Smith is committed to doing whatever it takes to not lose games. So far he’s been successful in this regard, but in order for the undefeated Chiefs to be genuine Super Bowl contenders, he at some point will have to actually make plays to win a game. This doesn’t mean making a gutsy play late in the fourth quarter; it means having the fortitude to consistently take advantage of big-play opportunities.

Smith is nowhere close to doing that right now. The TV camera angles that get beamed into living rooms across the country might show Smith not throwing interceptions. What those camera angles don’t show, however, is him missing wide-open receivers at the intermediate levels. They also don’t show him abandoning plays before receivers have finished their routes. We can see this, though, thanks to the All-22 film.






As this game probably will prove, Kansas City’s defense can’t keep holding opponents to under 20 points while also creating points of its own each week. Kansas City’s offense (i.e. Smith) will have to get sharper.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead

It was deceptive as an indicator that he was throwing the ball down the field.

That's typically what people believe when they see a high YPA.

Milkman and I both regard YPC as a statistic that's far more indicative of what a QB is doing on the field.

Thank you, come again.

Says who? Who here has suggested that YPA is some outstanding metric of downfield passing? Your reasoning is wholly circular. "YPC is the key element to winning"...and now you're conceding that it only shows if someone is passing downfield well. Again, how does that prove your premise that downfield passing is the most critical component to winning?

And hey, if milkman, whos been crushing Smith from the start believes it, it must be true. Today may be the worst appeal to authority one ever seen

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Having seen both Asamoah and Allen play in college, it's difficult to see them struggle so much. They were both excellent college players. Of course, Allen isn't playing his more natural position...

Asamoah in college looked like he should be a 10 year starting vet in the NFL with All-Pro potential.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by MileHighFish

I hope not but that's what I have been hearing. Know it's just talk at this point but would make some sense depending on how much pressure KC is able to put on Manning. Denver won't sacrifice Manning's health for a couple 8 yard slant routes. It will be interesting to see what they do as I believe they (Denver) has to be throwing a few wrinkles into the offense this week to slow the KC pass rush. Maybe it will be "ground and pound"?

They'll definitely mix things up with some looks that we haven't seen really since the beginning of the season and some new ones. That's what I like about the play calling. But again, Welker won't have a reduced role.

I think they keep Moreno and someone else back there to pass protect with Thomas, Thomas, Decker and Welker set up to work their magic.

Tough to cover, esp with Moreno dropping down for the quick dump pass in case of emergency. They'll have plenty of variations to work with on Sunday night.

They try to set the tone with the ground game, but their bread is buttered with the options in that passing attack. Not to mention, all the cheating and picking... how can they be stopped?

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Says who? Who here has suggested that YPA is some outstanding metric of downfield passing? Your reasoning is wholly circular. "YPC is the key element to winning"...and now you're conceding that it only shows if someone is passing downfield well. Again, how does that prove your premise that downfield passing is the most critical component to winning?

And hey, if milkman, whos been crushing Smith from the start believes it, it must be true. Today may be the worst appeal to authority one ever seen

He uses whatever he thinks fits his narrative, its that simple.

First off YPC are not more important than YPA. Anyone who believes that is ****ing stupid. If you gain the most yards you can per attempt that is the entire point of passing the damn ball.

Secondly something that Clay continually ignores (because it ignores his narrative) is Smith's struggles are actually more to do with his issues on short passes at the 10 yard area. 3 of 4 INT's have happened on passes 10 yards or less and he is only completing at 60% rate. 3 TD's 3 INt's.

His rating is highest on passes 11-20 yards down field and he has a 3-1 TD ratio.

I would argue his short passing needs more work than his deep passing. But that would imply Clay is ****ing clueless.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

is Smith's struggles are actually more to do with his issues on short passes at the 10 yard area. 3 of 4 INT's have happened on passes 10 yards or less and he is only completing at 60% rate. 3 TD's 3 INt's.

That's because that's pretty much all he throws!

Originally Posted by Marcellus

His rating is highest on passes 11-20 yards down field and he has a 3-1 TD ratio.

that's only because he throws those if a dude is wide wide wide wide wide wide open...sometimes maybe

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead

They both serve my purpose.

Alex sucks in almost every way.

You suck in almost every way

[duncan_idaho]

I'm still trying to get my head around why people think the Chiefs will be able to run with ease on Denver.

The Broncos have a very good run defense. The Chiefs have a slightly-better-than-mediocre run offense (by a very thin margin, heavily propped by Alex Smith's rushing stats).

Alex Smith is going to have to make plays in this game for the Chiefs to score enough to be in it. Some of those can be with his legs, but he's going to be much more aggressive about making plays than he has been for most of this season.

[Molitoth]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I'm still trying to get my head around why people think the Chiefs will be able to run with ease on Denver.

Homers will be homers.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

You suck in almost every way

Relevant post, Mr. Raisin.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I'm still trying to get my head around why people think the Chiefs will be able to run with ease on Denver.

The Broncos have a very good run defense. The Chiefs have a slightly-better-than-mediocre run offense (by a very thin margin, heavily propped by Alex Smith's rushing stats).

Alex Smith is going to have to make plays in this game for the Chiefs to score enough to be in it. Some of those can be with his legs, but he's going to be much more aggressive about making plays than he has been for most of this season.

Denver has played 3 teams with a decent rushing offense. The Eagles put 166 yards on them (40 by Vick which sounds familiar), the Redskins ran for over 100 without anything from RGII and they kept the Raiders in check.

Denver has given up 9 rushing TD's, KC has given up 2.

There are different influences in all these things obviously but something tells me their rush defense isn't as good as the stats look just like I don't think ours is as bad as it looks on the surface.

[Molitoth]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Denver has played 1 team with a decent rushing offense. The Eagles put 166 yards on them. (40 by Vick). Sounds familiar.

Washington's RB's went over 100 on them.

Their rush defense is in part due to who they have played.

So basically the same logic used in the statements that say the chiefs are only a product of who they have played.... bad teams and backup QB's.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead

Relevant post, Mr. Raisin.

It's more relevant than the ****ing False Narrative and negative, cherry-picking bullshit you've been spreading in this forum for much of 2013.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Alex Smith is going to have to make plays in this game for the Chiefs to score enough to be in it. Some of those can be with his legs, but he's going to be much more aggressive about making plays than he has been for most of this season.

Considering that the Colts and the Chargers run the same exact Rex Ryan inspired 3-4 defense with far less talent, the Broncos will need to be far more careful with the ball. That alone will make for a much lower scoring game than usual for the Broncos.

The Colts shut down Manning in the first half of their contest and the Chargers just shut him out in the second half. The Chiefs have the blueprint, scheme and players to limit their scoring opportunities.

I don't expect Smith to make huge, big chunk plays in snow and 20 degree weather. I expect to see the same plodding and methodical offense we've seen over the course of the first nine games.

Expecting them to open up the offense, on the road, at night, in 20 degree weather, is folly.

[booger]

Pam Oliver's Foreskin..........do it mods

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Considering that the Colts and the Chargers run the same exact Rex Ryan inspired 3-4 defense with far less talent, the Broncos will need to be far more careful with the ball. That alone will make for a much lower scoring game than usual for the Broncos.

The Colts shut down Manning in the first half of their contest and the Chargers just shut him out in the second half. The Chiefs have the blueprint, scheme and players to limit their scoring opportunities.

I don't expect Smith to make huge, big chunk plays in snow and 20 degree weather. I expect to see the same plodding and methodical offense we've seen over the course of the first nine games.

Expecting them to open up the offense, on the road, at night, in 20 degree weather, is folly.

WTF?

You have the blueprint... (vader voice) "Nooooooooooooooooooo"

KC's offense is pretty spare to fair on the road this season. Denver's "blueprint" for KC, contain Charles while forcing Smith to be a QB. Then offensively, keep Manning upright.