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Old 08-15-2013, 08:13 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository
New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
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Old 09-19-2013, 06:11 AM   #1051
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Today is a big day for us. If we can make up a half game on the teams in front of us without playing that would be huge. Lets go Red Sox, Astros, Blue Jays, and Rays!
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Old 09-19-2013, 07:39 AM   #1052
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Crazy optimistic scenario:

Lets say that the Royals are burnin' hot right now and the last three teams we play will all be terrible. To quantify that, lets say we have a 75% chance of winning each game, and we need 9 of them. If you really want to cling to a reasonable hope, thats (how good/how bad) you need to believe (we/they) are.

(.75^9) x (.25) x (10C9) = 18.77%

adding in the odds that we simply win all 10 of them puts us at 24.4%, about 1 in 4. Add in the chances that 88 wins end up being good enough, then maybe 1 in 3. Thats if we play great and Texas/Seattle/Chicago all mail it in.

If, more realistically, we had about a 57% chance of winning each game, our chances of winning 89+ games drop to about 3.09%. If you add in the small chance that 88 wins end up being good enough, that puts us closer to the baseball prospectus odds (4.4% this morning).
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Old 09-19-2013, 07:42 AM   #1053
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Crazy optimistic scenario:

Lets say that the Royals are burnin' hot right now and the last three teams we play will all be terrible. To quantify that, lets say we have a 75% chance of winning each game, and we need 9 of them. If you really want to cling to a reasonable hope, thats (how good/how bad) you need to believe (we/they) are.

(.75^9) x (.25) x (10C9) = 18.77%

adding in the odds that we simply win all 10 of them puts us at 24.4%, about 1 in 4. Add in the chances that 88 wins end up being good enough, then maybe 1 in 3. Thats if we play great and Texas/Seattle/Chicago all mail it in.

If, more realistically, we had about a 57% chance of winning each game, our chances of winning 89+ games drop to about 3.09%. If you add in the small chance that 88 wins end up being good enough, that puts us closer to the baseball prospectus odds (4.4% this morning).
Really?
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Old 09-19-2013, 07:43 AM   #1054
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Why are people rooting for the Rays over the Rangers? At least we control our destiny against the Rangers. Rays could get hot again and run away with one wild card spot.
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Old 09-19-2013, 07:48 AM   #1055
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Why are people rooting for the Rays over the Rangers? At least we control our destiny against the Rangers. Rays could get hot again and run away with one wild card spot.
Rays schedule is really brutal. Texas loses now and then we sweep Texas, then both wild cards are up in the air.
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Last edited by alnorth; 09-19-2013 at 07:57 AM..
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Old 09-19-2013, 07:52 AM   #1056
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How you guys like the SP match ups this weekend?
Perez - Santana
Garza - Guthrie
Ogando - Shields

Ventura starts GM 1 at Seattle
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Old 09-19-2013, 07:53 AM   #1057
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If you really want to hope, then adding on to my odds above, along with assuming our chances of winning each game is 75%, lets also just say that 88 wins at least forces some kind of tiebreaker game. I think it'll take 89, but we're dreaming, so lets just say the target is 88. Our odds in dreamland are:

(.75^10) + [(.75^9) x (.25) x (10C9)] + [(.75^8) x (.25^2) x (10C8)] = 52.56%

Better than 50/50! woo-hoo!
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Old 09-19-2013, 07:55 AM   #1058
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If you really want to hope, then adding on to my odds above, along with assuming our chances of winning each game is 75%, lets also just say that 88 wins at least forces some kind of tiebreaker game. I think it'll take 89, but we're dreaming, so lets just say the target is 88. Our odds in dreamland are:

(.75^10) + [(.75^9) x (.25) x (10C9)] + [(.75^8) x (.25^2) x (10C8)] = 52.56%

Better than 50/50! woo-hoo!
That's better.
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Old 09-19-2013, 07:58 AM   #1059
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Hah, that would do it. "sweep texas" followed by "run the table" means winning all 10 games, which is easier said than done, even against the white sox. Remember all those years when our terrible teams ruined someone's season at the end? The White Sox could still win a game.
The White Sox have been a miserable thorn in our side, including the 3 game sweep they put on us at The K in August. It's payback time in ChiTown, mother****ers!
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Old 09-19-2013, 08:07 AM   #1060
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At this point, every time we win, the publicly-published playoff odds will slowly inch up, but if we lose one of the Texas games, they will drastically fall under 1%, then go to near-zero whenever loss #2 happens.
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Old 09-19-2013, 08:07 AM   #1061
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The White Sox have been a miserable thorn in our side, including the 3 game sweep they put on us at The K in August. It's payback time in ChiTown, mother****ers!
True, but they have played like garbage lately. They are 4-16 over their last 20 games.
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Old 09-19-2013, 08:08 AM   #1062
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How you guys like the SP match ups this weekend?
Perez - Santana
Garza - Guthrie
Ogando - Shields

Ventura starts GM 1 at Seattle
I like those match ups. Gives us a solid chance at the sweep, there isn't a game there that makes you think we have a long uphill battle to win.
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Old 09-19-2013, 08:22 AM   #1063
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Our elimination number is 9.

Every time we lose or the 2nd-place wild card team wins, subtract 1. (if the 1st and 2nd wild card teams are tied, and only one of them wins, then do not subtract a number) If it goes to zero, we're out. If it goes to 1, the best we can do is force a tie.
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Old 09-19-2013, 08:53 AM   #1064
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hahaha
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Old 09-19-2013, 08:54 AM   #1065
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Are we still firing Ned Yost today?
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