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03-22-2013, 11:53 PM | |
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Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?
Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.
Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB? Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating. If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal. Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated. http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/ Kind of interesting and worth the read. |
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03-23-2013, 11:58 AM | #106 | |
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03-23-2013, 12:01 PM | #107 | ||
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Based on Dorsey's philosophy we still may...
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03-23-2013, 12:06 PM | #108 |
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That's your opinion. Not necessarily this coaches or GM's.
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03-23-2013, 12:08 PM | #109 |
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03-23-2013, 12:09 PM | #110 |
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I have a hard time believing that we're gonna take a QB 1st overall to be the 3rd QB on the depth chart this year.
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03-23-2013, 12:09 PM | #111 | |
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And if you were including the Jaguars, we are currently being crippled by some run of the mill missouri bundle of sticks named Blaine.
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03-23-2013, 12:09 PM | #112 |
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03-23-2013, 12:12 PM | #113 |
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The Redskins got screwed by the owners on their cap space and they had no problem trading two firsts and a second to move up
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03-23-2013, 12:18 PM | #114 | |
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It's looking more and more like our coach and GM don't think anyone in this draft is their guy. But Smith was, for now.
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03-23-2013, 12:20 PM | #115 | |
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The Jaguars for example, just spent the 2011 draft giving up picks to trade up for the shitty missouri kid, and then we spent picks again last year trading up for blaine. We have like 25 people on the roster right now. The Eagles easily have the best QB situation out of any of them. The Raiders are paying Palmer a ton and I liked what I saw from Pryor in his start. The Browns just took TWO QBs early. Bruce Arians is making up some shit about no "Wow" qbs so he has an excuse to stick with his secret lover Drew Stanton. Bills are short on picks and their HC wants his buddy Ryan back.
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03-23-2013, 12:21 PM | #116 | |
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Last year with the Redskins and Rams how early that got done was very unusual.
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03-23-2013, 12:22 PM | #117 |
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Maybe, But I think Clark told him we gotta win NOW. So Andy said how many picks can I trade to get my boy Alex?
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03-23-2013, 12:33 PM | #118 |
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Sweet! More Geno on the planet.
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03-23-2013, 12:52 PM | #119 | ||
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I have no inside info but my uneducated guess would be that's not what he thinks...
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03-23-2013, 12:53 PM | #120 | |
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