Houston Heading Toward Big Season.

[Micjones]

If you are looking for one NFL player that is capable of a breakout season in 2012 then look no farther than Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston.

The Chiefs drafted Houston in the third round out of Georgia and getting him there was a steal. Houston was projecting as a mid-first round pick before he tested positive for marijuana use at the NFL scouting combine. Teams backed away from a player stupid enough to smoke weed so close to such an important event but the Chiefs felt that Houston’s value was too great to pass on in round three. They also felt that, after talking with Houston, that there wouldn’t be any future trouble.

So far, KC’s investment is paying off big time.

Houston got off to a slow start last season (what Chiefs player didn’t) but by the end of the year he had forced his way into the starting lineup and soon he became an every-down player. In fact, Houston’s numbers and grades from Pro Football Focus indicated that he could be a monster in 2012. First, take a look at Houston’s overall grades from 2012.

Houston’s first four weeks were crap. After that he didn’t play as much and when he did he was average. Then, from Week 10 on, save a slip-up against the eventual AFC Champion Patriots, Houston was a beast. He finished the season with an overall grade of +6.8.

Yet there was a clear moment when Houston “got it” and it appeared to come around Week 10. We were tracking Houston’s progress here on AA and we had already noticed he had gone from bad to average and correctly predicted that he was about to turn the corner.*

*This is just one of the many reasons you should subscribe to premium stats at Pro Football Focus.

So what kind of season might Houston have in 2012? Chances are he could be even better than he was from Week 10 on of last season. But what if he was just equally as good? What would his numbers look like?

In 2011,Houston finished the year with six sacks, three QB hits, 13 QB hurries, three batted passes, 45 tackles and 32 stops.*

*The official NFL numbers credit Houston for a few more tackles. They also credit him with -.5 a sack. We’re using PFF numbers here because we believe them to be more accurate. PFF doesn’t give out 1/2 sacks. If two players get there at the same time, they both get credit for a sack.

His grades from PFF were as follows:

Overall: +6.8, Run D: +7.4, Pass Coverage: -7.6

If we take his numbers from Week 10 on, average them out and project them for an entire season, they look like this.

12 sacks

4 QB Hits

22 QB Hurries

58 Tackles

50 Stops

+33.4 Overall Grade

How does that +33.4 overall grade stack up against all 3-4 OLB from 2011?

It would be good for #3 in the entire NFL behind only Cameron Wake (+43.5) and Aldon Smith (+36.4) and ahead of players like Demarcus Ware (+32.6) and even Tamba Hali (+31.4).

The 50 stops?

Yeah, that’d be the best in the NFL.

The stops are really important because those are plays basically blown up by Houston. Add to that 12 sacks and you’ve got yourself an absolute force at OLB opposite Tamba Hali.

2012 will be Houston’s second season in Romeo Crennel’s defense. He’ll likely benefit from a full offseason of work and a more structured preseason plan from Romeo Crennel rather than Todd Haley’s “we’ll take it slow approach.” Houston should be ready right out of the gate this season and if he can string together 17 weeks of play comparable to his last eight weeks of football in 2011, the Kansas City Chiefs defense is going to be very, very good.

And Justin Houston could be heading to the Pro Bowl.

The Story.

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by BossChief

zero objectivity

Like I said earlier: It's Knowmo.
I've pretty much gotten used to just ignoring him. Zero Objectivity is spot on. He's basically a 12 yr old.

[Chief_For_Life58]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Lamaar Woodley is the best comparison.

beast

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Toad King

I'm not cherry picking, because I'm not trying to make the case that Houston is better. He's not.

It's inaccurate to say "Von's worst is better than Houston's best," though.

Von Miller had an awesome season, Justin Houston had a very good half season.

More than likely both will be in the top 10 at their position group in the years to come. So you can stop with the "Von Miller shits all over Justin Houston" talk.

Especially if you look at their last five outings (and the time frame really makes no difference).

Last 2 games:

Carter: 10 tackles, 2 interceptions

Berry: 10 tackles, 0 interceptions

It's not cherrypicking, because I'm not trying to make the case that Carter is better.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Dave

What's ****ed up about Homo and Magicqueef is we all know that Miller is a better pass rusher than Houston.

Where their vaginas start bleeding is when we try to tell them Miller isn't that much better, considering he was #2 overall compared to Houston, who was #70.

Butthurt ensued.

Why does it matter where they were picked? It doesn't make them any better. In fact, it makes no difference at all once they're on the team.

I just don't get where you see that Von "isn't that much better." Houston's best game all season was a +4.6. Von spent 8 games above that mark, and not by just a little. +8.7, +8.0, +7.4, +6.4, +5.9 are all significantly above what Houston did all season.

+4.6 basically represents Von's median, meaning that the absolute pinnacle of what Houston was able to achieve, the reason any of you have hope for his future, the performance you're praying he can repeat, was pretty much a "meh" day for Von.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Last 2 games:

Carter: 10 tackles, 2 interceptions

Berry: 10 tackles, 0 interceptions

It's not cherrypicking, because I'm not trying to make the case that Carter is better.

Who the **** is Carter?

Two games is too small a sample size, anyway, and tackles are a pretty meaningless statistic. You need something more real, like a PFF rating.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

+4.6 basically represents Von's median, meaning that the absolute pinnacle of what Houston was able to achieve, the reason any of you have hope for his future, the performance you're praying he can repeat, was pretty much a "meh" day for Von.

+4.6 is a dominant game by most measurements. Anything over 2 is considered to be a very good performance.

Von's median was NOT 4.6.

His median was 3.1. (53.4 total score divided by 17 games).

Justin Houston's median over the final 8 games: 2.08.

This falls in line with what most of us are saying: The second half of last season, the gap between Houston and Miller was not enormous.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Toad King

Who the **** is Carter?

Two games is too small a sample size, anyway, and tackles are a pretty meaningless statistic. You need something more real, like a PFF rating.

2 is too small, but 5 is fine. Got it.

Carter is the Broncos' rookie 4th round safety.

[Ace Gunner]

Von Miller = Justin Houston?

That is reeruned. You know what else is reeruned? The first line of that article;

"If you are looking for one NFL player that is capable of a breakout season in 2012 then look no farther than Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston"

"further" idiot. Must be a "midwest" thing because I see it misused on Chiefs boards quite often.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Toad King

+4.6 is a dominant game by most measurements. Anything over 2 is considered to be a very good performance.

Von's median was NOT 4.6.

His median was 3.1. (53.4 total score divided by 17 games).

Justin Houston's median over the final 8 games: 2.08.

This falls in line with what most of us are saying: The second half of last season, the gap between Houston and Miller was not enormous.

Does any one else not know what the word median means?

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

I just don't get where you see that Von "isn't that much better."

We're talking about an elite player vs a very good player.

Miller is not going to get much better (it would be very, VERY hard for him to improve on last season, he was rated so far ahead of his 4-3 OLB competitors it would be unrealistic to expect it), so the gap is going to narrow this season.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Does any one else not know what the word median means?

Sorry, it's early.

But what I said makes sense.

Their average performance was not that different the 2nd half of the year.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

2 is too small, but 5 is fine. Got it.

Carter is the Broncos' rookie 4th round safety.

Ah, well his PFF rating was complete shit, so **** off.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Toad King

We're talking about an elite player vs a very good player.

Miller is not going to get much better (it would be very, VERY hard for him to improve on last season, he was rated so far ahead of his 4-3 OLB competitors it would be unrealistic to expect it), so the gap is going to narrow this season.

You may be talking about an elite player vs a very good player (I'm not so sure about the "very"), but that doesn't seem to be what others on this thread are discussing.

Originally Posted by Toad King

Sorry, it's early.

But what I said makes sense.

Their average performance was not that different the 2nd half of the year.

Even after eliminating all of Houston's embarrasing performances, Von was still performing at 150% of his level. The difference doesn't seem all that small to me.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Even after eliminating all of Houston's embarrasing performances, Von was still performing at 150% of his level. The difference doesn't seem all that small to me.

3.1 vs 2.08 is not that huge of a difference.

If you want to look at the entire season, that's your prerogative, but it doesn't paint an accurate picture. The Chiefs basically weren't even allowing Houston to rush the passer in the first half of the year.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Toad King

3.1 vs 2.08 is not that huge of a difference.

If you want to look at the entire season, that's your prerogative, but it doesn't paint an accurate picture. The Chiefs basically weren't even allowing Houston to rush the passer in the first half of the year.

And yet he still managed a bunch of negative run defense and pass coverage grades in those games.