Houston Heading Toward Big Season.

[Micjones]

If you are looking for one NFL player that is capable of a breakout season in 2012 then look no farther than Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston.

The Chiefs drafted Houston in the third round out of Georgia and getting him there was a steal. Houston was projecting as a mid-first round pick before he tested positive for marijuana use at the NFL scouting combine. Teams backed away from a player stupid enough to smoke weed so close to such an important event but the Chiefs felt that Houston’s value was too great to pass on in round three. They also felt that, after talking with Houston, that there wouldn’t be any future trouble.

So far, KC’s investment is paying off big time.

Houston got off to a slow start last season (what Chiefs player didn’t) but by the end of the year he had forced his way into the starting lineup and soon he became an every-down player. In fact, Houston’s numbers and grades from Pro Football Focus indicated that he could be a monster in 2012. First, take a look at Houston’s overall grades from 2012.

Houston’s first four weeks were crap. After that he didn’t play as much and when he did he was average. Then, from Week 10 on, save a slip-up against the eventual AFC Champion Patriots, Houston was a beast. He finished the season with an overall grade of +6.8.

Yet there was a clear moment when Houston “got it” and it appeared to come around Week 10. We were tracking Houston’s progress here on AA and we had already noticed he had gone from bad to average and correctly predicted that he was about to turn the corner.*

*This is just one of the many reasons you should subscribe to premium stats at Pro Football Focus.

So what kind of season might Houston have in 2012? Chances are he could be even better than he was from Week 10 on of last season. But what if he was just equally as good? What would his numbers look like?

In 2011,Houston finished the year with six sacks, three QB hits, 13 QB hurries, three batted passes, 45 tackles and 32 stops.*

*The official NFL numbers credit Houston for a few more tackles. They also credit him with -.5 a sack. We’re using PFF numbers here because we believe them to be more accurate. PFF doesn’t give out 1/2 sacks. If two players get there at the same time, they both get credit for a sack.

His grades from PFF were as follows:

Overall: +6.8, Run D: +7.4, Pass Coverage: -7.6

If we take his numbers from Week 10 on, average them out and project them for an entire season, they look like this.

12 sacks

4 QB Hits

22 QB Hurries

58 Tackles

50 Stops

+33.4 Overall Grade

How does that +33.4 overall grade stack up against all 3-4 OLB from 2011?

It would be good for #3 in the entire NFL behind only Cameron Wake (+43.5) and Aldon Smith (+36.4) and ahead of players like Demarcus Ware (+32.6) and even Tamba Hali (+31.4).

The 50 stops?

Yeah, that’d be the best in the NFL.

The stops are really important because those are plays basically blown up by Houston. Add to that 12 sacks and you’ve got yourself an absolute force at OLB opposite Tamba Hali.

2012 will be Houston’s second season in Romeo Crennel’s defense. He’ll likely benefit from a full offseason of work and a more structured preseason plan from Romeo Crennel rather than Todd Haley’s “we’ll take it slow approach.” Houston should be ready right out of the gate this season and if he can string together 17 weeks of play comparable to his last eight weeks of football in 2011, the Kansas City Chiefs defense is going to be very, very good.

And Justin Houston could be heading to the Pro Bowl.

The Story.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

And yet he still managed a bunch of negative run defense and pass coverage grades in those games.

I don't know why that's relevant, unless you think he's going to go back to sucking ass.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Last 2 games:

Carter: 10 tackles, 2 interceptions

Berry: 10 tackles, 0 interceptions

It's not cherrypicking, because I'm not trying to make the case that Carter is better.

Continue to ignore the fact that Carter is a complete POS that draws the attention of nobody outside of Pile High.

[lcarus]

Originally Posted by Hog Farmer

Well, I'd say this is good news. And with a beast at nose tackle we may just enjoy this defense like no other.

It's gonna be a great defense.

[Hammock Parties]

The other interesting thing about Von Miller...we actually have a couple of tackles who can block him.

Denver's RT is shit.

It's entirely possible Von Miller is not particularly effective against the Chiefs this season, while Houston breaks Manning's neck.

Then what will MagicHef say...

[Pasta Little Brioni]

These guys really believe in thier hearts that Denver has the better and more talented D.

[Quesadilla Joe]

Von Miller is the guy who knocked Casshole out for the year. He deserves a picture up top or something.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Toad King

I don't know why that's relevant, unless you think he's going to go back to sucking ass.

By the same token, why would the less impressive games of Von's be relevant? Unless, of course, you think he's going to get his thumb caught in a Charger's helmet again. I would think that Houston regressing would be much more likely.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by PGM

Continue to ignore the fact that Carter is a complete POS that draws the attention of nobody outside of Pile High.

Originally Posted by PGM

These guys really believe in thier hearts that Denver has the better and more talented D.

Yikes.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

By the same token, why would the less impressive games of Von's be relevant? Unless, of course, you think he's going to get his thumb caught in a Charger's helmet again.

You're basically saying Von Miller doesn't have bad games, at all, unless he's hurt.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Toad King

You're basically saying Von Miller doesn't have bad games, at all, unless he's hurt.

...yes?

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

...yes?

That's a pretty unrealistic expectation for the rest of his career.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Yikes.

Care to refute?

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by PGM

Care to refute?

Refute what? Your apparant inability to follow a conversation?

Obviously my reference to Carter was a jab at Clayton's data collection practice, not me pimping a below average safety.

I also fail to see where I said anything at all about the rest of either team's defense.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Refute what? Your apparant inability to follow a conversation?

Obviously my reference to Carter was a jab at Clayton's data collection practice, not me pimping a below average safety.

I also fail to see where I said anything at all about the rest of either team's defense.

That was a pretty horrible jab. Bring a better example to the table next time.

So, you think the Chiefs have a better D then?

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Toad King

That's a pretty unrealistic expectation for the rest of his career.

I'm just going by what he's shown me so far. Obviously it is much more realistic to expect it from Von than it is to expect it from Houston.