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Old 04-03-2016, 09:48 AM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2016 Royals Repository, Version 1 ***



And so it begins: The Royals' second straight attempt to repeat as AL Champions, and first attempt to repeat as World Series champions.

In this thread, we'll track all non-gameday action. Roster moves, prospect news, etc.

I'll start the thread as usual, with division rivals thoughts. I still like KC to repeat as AL Central champs. Here's how I see the rest of it shaking out:

2) Indians - they have the pitching (and seem to have at least semi-Kluber-ed Cody Anderson, who added 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason). Will the offense hold up? I think this is a team that ends up looking a lot like the 2014 Royals. Francisco Lindor will solidify their IF defense over the full season, and is a help with the bat. I think this club is still a year away from really breaking through - the offense still has a lot of question marks - but I like them to nab a wildcard spot.

Key Player(s): Michael Brantley. When Brantley returns - and how he hits when he does - will be critical to the Indians' ability to be good enough on offense.

Jason Kipnis. Kipnis has been an enigmatic offensive performer for the past several years. If he finally has a good offensive campaign from start to finish, Cleveland could make real noise.

Something of interest to me: For all the acclaim the Twins' farm system gets, I look at the Indians young players, and would much rather have them. Brad Zimmer is going to be a very good all-around CF. Clint Frazier has huge power potential and should arrive soon (2017). Lindor is a young stud.

3) Tigers - Old and dependent on a few stars. If Verlander and Sanchez are healthy and effective, they will be playoff contenders. I'm sure JD Martinez will continue to hit roid-aided bombs. I'm also pretty sure Victor Martinez's days as a huge power threat are gone.

Key player: Justin Verlander. Detroit people would have you believe he figured out how to succeed without his big fastball in September of last year. If that's true, and he returns to dominant form, Detroit will likely contend again.

Something of interest to me: Will Jose Iglesias stay healthy and not try to kill teammates in the dugout? His defense makes the whole group much better.

4) Twins - They won't lead the division or be in playoff contention for as long this year, but Minnesota will avoid the cellar.

Key Player: Miguel Sano. Huge power, huge K rate. Can he continue to drive the ball and be a plus offensive player? Probably needs to cut that 35 percent K percentage to do so.

Something of interest to me: Will teams challenge Sano inside with hard stuff? Working away, away, just lets his power play up. Also - will Mike Berardino continue to be the biggest beat writer homer in MLB?

5) White Sox - still managed by a shitty manager who can't control his clubhouse (The blame for the LaRoche thing really should fall on him, not the GM). Still have a shitty overall defense and a lot of douchebags on the team. They will once again look better on paper than they actually perform.

Key player: Carlos Rodon. The White Sox need Rodon to take a big step forward to make an actual move this season. He's got the talent...

And, as always, here are the prospects.

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:
Spoiler!

Spoiler!
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Old 05-31-2016, 08:49 AM   #1366
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Sorry Duncan but Hosmer = Brandon Belt = Freddie Freeman and they got nowhere close to 180M. Belt got 1/2 of it. That ain't happening.
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Old 05-31-2016, 08:51 AM   #1367
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If they signed him to sell tickets the revenue they would need to offset $15 million annually is huge. Revenue does not equal profit, but every payroll dollar spent is one dollar off the bottom line. Don't see the ROI, but I could be wrong. We need him to produce, and at a decent rate these next few years. Hoping this time off has him watching tape and figuring out what caused the gaping hole in his swing. Reminds me of his early career struggles, and that's worrisome for an aging veteran.
I was being facetious. Alex doesn't sell any tickets.
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Old 05-31-2016, 08:58 AM   #1368
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This I am not worried about. I don't think, unless they blew him away financially, he would leave KC to go to the White Sox,Twins or Indians and I simply don't see the Tigers having over $50 in 1st baseman contracts.
No, I agree.

Indians and Twins don't have the money. Tigers have got too much tied up in Miggy and others. Only team that COULD potentially do it would be Sux.

That said, Sux are a poorly run organization and can't see why Hoz would leave to go to that after playing for Royals.
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Old 05-31-2016, 09:00 AM   #1369
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He sucks now but he's a huge draw. They need him to sell tickets, place was totally empty this past week
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Yeah, it was a ****ing ghost town.
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Old 05-31-2016, 09:01 AM   #1370
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One big reason we brought AG back was to backfill Hosmer at 1B in years 3&4 of his deal. Can't be striking out 30% of the time If he wants to play a premium offensive position tho


I think that's part of the thinking but not the whole deal.

If Ryan O'Hearn progresses nicely, he will have a shot in 2018 at 1B as well. He has put up impressive power numbers this year and is holding his own in his test at Northwest Arkansas.

I will still chalk the bad start up to small sample size re: Gordon, until we see him struggle that badly while healthy over a whole season.

Side note: Chase Vallot is someone I've mentioned off and on the past few years as a prospect to watch. He's putting up really strong power numbers at Lexington (low-A) and pairing them with nice peripherals.

Won't turn 20 until August, so it's pretty impressive to see him slugging in the mid-.500 range at that age. Most guys don't have that kind of power that young. He's also pairing it nicely with solid BA and good walk rates. He has a career 14 percent walk rate and has always hit for power, but his OPS has taken a nice tick up this year because of his improvement in making contact.

Vallot is working as a catcher currently and has the tools, but is pretty rough behind the plate. If his bat continues to progress like this, KC may have to consider moving him to another position and letting the bat carry him.


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Old 05-31-2016, 09:02 AM   #1371
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Until last year, Gordon had actually been a far superior offensive player as Hosmer. This is the first year Hosmer has come close to putting up something similar to Gordon's career year in 2011. (Gordon's offensive performance tends to be underrated here sometimes, just sticking up for it).

That aside, Hosmer IS going to get more than $15 million a year.

The price point is going to start at $20 million/year and only go up from there. Now that he's finally reached his full potential - hitting for power as well as average and producing like a true middle-of-the-lineup bat - it likely goes higher.

Brandon Belt has been a better player overall than Hosmer leading up to this year and just signed an extension - that looks like a bargain now at $13 million annually. Hosmer will be looking for more than that.

7 years, $150 million is the floor for Hos's contract. I expect it will land around 7/180 when all is said and done.

While it would be awesome for KC to do that, it also would run the risk of turning into a Joe Mauer-like stone around the team's neck.

I think he does see some appeal in being a lifelong Royal and the panache that comes with that nationally and locally/for life after baseball, which will give them a chance, if not a great one.

I don't see $30 million/year unless Hosmer goes .300/35 this year and next, but that IS a possibility.

Upside of that is that if he becomes that hitter, I think there's a good shot the Royals win another WS this year or next.


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Old 05-31-2016, 09:05 AM   #1372
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I'm calling my shot now (look it up in a year and a half):

Hosmer to Yankees after 2017 season - 7 years, 200 mil.

Hoz is made for Yankees stadium. It just makes too much sense.


To be continued . . . . .
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Old 05-31-2016, 09:06 AM   #1373
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Originally Posted by Dartgod View Post
Friday: 28,508
Saturday: 31,598
Sunday: 36,624
Monday: 32,018

Yeah, it was a ****ing ghost town.
I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic.
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Old 05-31-2016, 09:09 AM   #1374
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Sorry Duncan but Hosmer = Brandon Belt = Freddie Freeman and they got nowhere close to 180M. Belt got 1/2 of it. That ain't happening.


Freeman got 8/135 in a deal that bought over three arbitration years, for an average of $17 million. He sacrificed some long-term earnings to get more of it up front, and Hos hasn't done that.

Hosmer, if he puts up back-to-back .300/20+/375/.475+ years this year and next, will far surpass that deal.

Belt and Hosmer had been very similar, yes. To the Giants' credit, they were able to work out an extension with Belt before this season and got a bargain. He has been a slightly better hitter than Hosmer leading up to this year, and now both are breaking out as true lineup linchpins.


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Old 05-31-2016, 09:16 AM   #1375
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I'm calling my shot now (look it up in a year and a half):

Hosmer to Yankees after 2017 season - 7 years, 200 mil.

Hoz is made for Yankees stadium. It just makes too much sense.


To be continued . . . . .

I can see Hosmer getting that type of deal, not sure if it's from New York or another team with deep pockets.

Re: Boras, yes, he's a factor, but the Royals have one of the best relationships with Boras in MLB and players have overruled him before (Moustakas when he originally signed out of HS, for example).


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Old 05-31-2016, 09:19 AM   #1376
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Yeah, if he keeps this up and you consider his post season numbers, it would not shock me to see him as a $15-$20 per year guy. I don't care. Pay him.


Edit:

I just looked up salaries for 1st baseman. Hos is getting $15 minimum.
Eric Hosmer has never had above a 3.6 WAR year. He's not worth the contract he's going to get. He's a great player, but someone is going to drastically overpay for a first baseman.
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Old 05-31-2016, 09:19 AM   #1377
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I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic.
I don't know. He's harped on attendance before and you never know with that idiot.
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Old 05-31-2016, 09:25 AM   #1378
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I'm officially worried about Kendrys Morales. He's not doing the job.

A slump isn't supposed to last 1/3 of the season. He is well below the Mendoza Line. I was giving him until June to get it together.

Thoughts?


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Old 05-31-2016, 09:26 AM   #1379
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Eric Hosmer has never had above a 3.6 WAR year. He's not worth the contract he's going to get. He's a great player, but someone is going to drastically overpay for a first baseman.
He's just now entering his prime

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Old 05-31-2016, 09:27 AM   #1380
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I can see Hosmer getting that type of deal, not sure if it's from New York or another team with deep pockets.

Re: Boras, yes, he's a factor, but the Royals have one of the best relationships with Boras in MLB and players have overruled him before (Moustakas when he originally signed out of HS, for example).


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Oh, I'm not insinuating that the Royals can't work with Boras, they absolutely can. They've proven it.

I just don't think the Royals are going to be willing to give Boras the type of contract he's gonna demand for Hosmer, nor should they (as you cited previously, the Joe Mauer dilemma).

A team like the Royals can't afford to tie up that much money in one player.
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