Royals (New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository - Page 98

duncan_idaho · 08-15-2013, 08:13 AM

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

WhawhaWhat · 09-26-2013, 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

If you look at Johnson's secondary numbers, you see a good case for bad luck/bounceback.

If Josh Johnson wants to land the huge contract for 2015 and beyond, he wants to be a Royal next year. He just doesn't know it yet.

I have had Josh Johnson for about 3 years in fantasy baseball and he gets hurt every year. So if the Royals sign him, hopefully Zimmer is ready to go by the time the injury bug bites.

duncan_idaho · 09-26-2013, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat

I have had Josh Johnson for about 3 years in fantasy baseball and he gets hurt every year. So if the Royals sign him, hopefully Zimmer is ready to go by the time the injury bug bites.

Johnson made 31 starts a year ago, but has had severe injury issues in 2/3 years. That's one of the reasons he would be available. I wouldn't want to bring him in on a huge deal or long-term deal, but it's a calculated gamble. If it pays off and he's healthy all year and pitches to his best, you might be talking about a guy who is actually BETTER than Ervin Santana (especially if Eiland can have a similar effect on improving his groundball rate). A co-ace with Shields.

If he gets hurt again, you have a veteran swing guy (Like Chen or Mendoza) or a youngster (Smith/Duffy/Ventura) step in.

I don't think he would have missed as much time this year if 1) The Blue Jays had been "in it"; 2) It wasn't a contract year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tytanium

If nothing else, Youk can play solid defense at third and would probably be the first Royal in a million years to have 100+ walks in a season.

Youkilis has played an average of 102 games/year over the past 5 seasons, since turning 30. He also has NEVER walked 100 times in a season. Mostly because he has never played more than 147 games in a season.

I wouldn't bitch about bringing him, but I wouldn't think it was a slam-dunk success, either.

Still, Gordon/Youk/Hosmer/Butler would be an interesting grouping at the top of the lineup. Lot of OBP ability in that foursome.

**gblowfish** · 09-26-2013, 11:02 AM

Looks like they're gonna keep Ned, probably give him two more years.

Santana has a losing record. He's 9-10 on 32 starts. Is that good enough to throw $10 mill or more at him for the next four to five years?

Should they resign Hoch or let him go?

Should they shop Butler, Moose and Escobar?

Should be an interesting off season. Was this year a fluke like 2003?

Archie F. Swin · 09-26-2013, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Was this year a fluke like 2003?

No

in 2003 they were hitting the ball well

with 836 (4th in AL) runs total and 162 Home runs (7th)

pitching was mediocre with 867 runs allowed and a team ERA of 5.05 (12th among 14 AL teams)

(so far)This year we've scored 630 runs (11th in AL) 106 home runs (15th in AL)

591 runs allowed with a team ERA of 3.46 (1st in AL)

Pitching is the most important thing. I hope we have a replacement for Chen and Santana on the farm and we can acquire a slugger in the off season.

Chiefspants · 09-26-2013, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Santana has a losing record. He's 9-10 on 32 starts.

This should not influence our decision resign him whatsoever.

**ChiTown** · 09-26-2013, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archie F. Swin

No

in 2003 they were hitting the ball well

with 836 (4th in AL) runs total and 162 Home runs (7th)

pitching was mediocre with 867 runs allowed and a team ERA of 5.05 (12th among 14 AL teams)

(so far)This year we've scored 630 runs (11th in AL) 106 home runs (15th in AL)

591 runs allowed with a team ERA of 3.46 (1st in AL)

Pitching is the most important thing. I hope we have a replacement for Chen and Santana on the farm and we can acquire a slugger in the off season.

I'm not sure how those stats disprove this year was not a fluke.

WhawhaWhat · 09-26-2013, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Santana has a losing record. He's 9-10 on 32 starts. Is that good enough to throw $10 mill or more at him for the next four to five years?

9th in ERA, 8th in WHIP, 6th in IP. Win/Loss record is mostly irrelevant. He pitches a lot of innings and doesn't put many on base.

**gblowfish** · 09-26-2013, 12:11 PM

Lots of guys are up for arbitration this year including Hosmer, Holland, Kottaras, Maxwell, etc.

I'm wondering if walking away from Santana might be the smart thing to do? Hopefully Duffy, Dwyer, Paulino, maybe even Hoch (if they resign him) could step into that slot?

Also, will Glass be willing to kick the payroll by about another $10 mill? Might need to do that to afford everbody, even if we let Santana walk.

duncan_idaho · 09-26-2013, 12:13 PM

[QUOTE=gblowfish;10021239]Looks like they're gonna keep Ned, probably give him two more years.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Santana has a losing record. He's 9-10 on 32 starts. Is that good enough to throw $10 mill or more at him for the next four to five years?

Santana's W-L record is meaningless. What's important: 3.24 ERA, 211 Ip, 1.14 WHIP, 126 ERA+, 160 Ks, 3.16 K/BB.

That said, he will get much more than $10 million a year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Should they resign Hoch or let him go?

You tender Hochevar with the plan of shopping him on the trade market, IMO. He can be a key piece in acquiring a bat via trade, whether that's in RF or at 2B.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Should they shop Butler, Moose and Escobar?

No, no and no. Trading any of those guys at this point would be trading them at a low point in value. You're the team taking on all the risk at that point.

The Royals are not going to replace Butler's bat for $8 million. The SS market is thin. And Moustakas, coming off this season, would have very little value unless you find a team that really believes in him.

Better bet would be to develop some backup plans for next season at SS and 3B. I've mentioned Jhonny Peralta several times because he provides some insurance at both spots (and at 2B, too, potentially).

Acquiring a 2B would have the same effect, if you bring back Bonifacio, because Boni could play 3B if MOose continues to be a disaster (wouldn't want to see Boni playing SS for any extended period).

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Should be an interesting off season. Was this year a fluke like 2003?

Not a fluke, I don't think. The Royals are going to be an above-average team in terms of W-L, and their record matches their indicators. They have a below-average lineup but an excellent pitching staff, making them a slightly above-average team.

**gblowfish** · 09-26-2013, 12:13 PM

Also, what about Moose, Escobar and Butler? Escobar is one of the worst offensive starting players in the American League. Moose has been awful, only around 40 RBI this year is weak sauce. Billy doesn't hit for much power for a DH, and rolls into a lot of DPs. Can we do better? Moose and Escobar are OK on defense, but do we trade range and errors for more offensive production?

Is Billy too fat to ski???

Prison Bitch · 09-26-2013, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiTown

I'm not sure how those stats disprove this year was not a fluke.

We're a game below our expected w/l record. We were no fluke this year.

Archie F. Swin · 09-26-2013, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiTown

I'm not sure how those stats disprove this year was not a fluke.

The only thing "flukey" about this season is Billy's numbers were down across the board. Esky numbers came down a little too.

I think its more of a fluke for good hitting to overcome bad pitching than the other way around.

Chiefspants · 09-26-2013, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

We're a game below our expected w/l record. We were no fluke this year.

Can you link me to this information?

duncan_idaho · 09-26-2013, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Also, what about Moose, Escobar and Butler? Escobar is one of the worst offensive starting players in the American League. Moose has been awful, only around 40 RBI this year is weak sauce. Billy doesn't hit for much power for a DH, and rolls into a lot of DPs. Can we do better? Moose and Escobar are OK on defense, but do we trade range and errors for more offensive production?

Is Billy too fat to ski???

Billy Butler is the second-best DH in the league. Would be hard to do much better than that.

Moustakas and Escobar have been enormous disappointments with the bat. I think Escobar is more likely to bounce back to an acceptable offensive level next year, and his defense is excellent at the most important defensive position.

Moustakas... 2014 is make-or-break for him. And they need to have some insurance for him if he starts the season like he has played this one.

Short leash next year.

**RockChalk** · 09-26-2013, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Moustakas and Escobar have been enormous disappointments with the bat. I think Escobar is more likely to bounce back to an acceptable offensive level next year, and his defense is excellent at the most important defensive position.

Moustakas... 2014 is make-or-break for him. And they need to have some insurance for him if he starts the season like he has played this one.

Short leash next year.

The numbers for Moose are pretty damn close to the numbers Hosmer put up in 2012. So let's hope that he makes the same "jump" that Hoz did

08-15-2013, 08:13 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1420308	(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository New thread, this time with more burst. Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
Posts: 21,158

09-26-2013, 11:02 AM	#1458
gblowfish Be Kind To Your Pets Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Glorious Independence, MO Casino cash: $17596178 VARSITY	Looks like they're gonna keep Ned, probably give him two more years. Santana has a losing record. He's 9-10 on 32 starts. Is that good enough to throw $10 mill or more at him for the next four to five years? Should they resign Hoch or let him go? Should they shop Butler, Moose and Escobar? Should be an interesting off season. Was this year a fluke like 2003?
Posts: 40,843

09-26-2013, 12:11 PM	#1463
gblowfish Be Kind To Your Pets Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Glorious Independence, MO Casino cash: $17596178 VARSITY	Lots of guys are up for arbitration this year including Hosmer, Holland, Kottaras, Maxwell, etc. I'm wondering if walking away from Santana might be the smart thing to do? Hopefully Duffy, Dwyer, Paulino, maybe even Hoch (if they resign him) could step into that slot? Also, will Glass be willing to kick the payroll by about another $10 mill? Might need to do that to afford everbody, even if we let Santana walk.
Posts: 40,843

09-26-2013, 12:13 PM	#1465
gblowfish Be Kind To Your Pets Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Glorious Independence, MO Casino cash: $17596178 VARSITY	Also, what about Moose, Escobar and Butler? Escobar is one of the worst offensive starting players in the American League. Moose has been awful, only around 40 RBI this year is weak sauce. Billy doesn't hit for much power for a DH, and rolls into a lot of DPs. Can we do better? Moose and Escobar are OK on defense, but do we trade range and errors for more offensive production? Is Billy too fat to ski???
Posts: 40,843