Way Too Early 2017 Mock

[kccrow]

OFFSEASON PLAN

Spoiler!

Release (incl. Waive/Retirement/Trade/Option)

Nick Foles (QB) - Do not pick up option year (+$10,750,000) - Unless the Chiefs think Foles will take over for Smith, there's no reason to keep him on the roster at that type of price tag. The Chiefs won't pick up that option. They may let it expire and re-sign Foles, but even that seems unlikely.
Jamaal Charles (RB) - Trade for 2018 conditional draft pick (+$7,000,000) - Charles is getting old and those injuries are a factor. If he can show he's got something left by season's end, I think the Chiefs move him and $7 million off the books for some type of compensation. If not, he's going to have to take a significant pay cut or be cut.
Jah Reid (OL) - Release (+$2,075,000) - Reid became insurance after the Chiefs signed Mitchell Schwartz, and Reid hasn't even seen much action with all of the injuries at guard. His salary is needed elsewhere.
Demetrius Harris (TE) - Release (+$1,050,000) - Too many drops and plenty of time to develop, it's time to move on as the Chiefs have several young TE's with equal or better ability in the wings.

Allow to Walk

Albert Wilson (WR) - Lackluster play and the ascention of Tyreek Hill as a rookie makes Wilson easily expendable. A RFA tender is too much to pay for his services in my opinion.
Kendall Reyes (DL) - Chris Jones and Rakeem Nunez-Roches are developing nicely. Dorsey will likely look to add more young depth.
Bishop Sankey (RB) - A backup plan to a backup plan, so unless he makes some significant contribution he's out.
Mike Person (OG) - Not a contributor.
Trey Millard (FB) - Not a contributor.
Kenny Cook (WR) - Not a contributor.

Re-Sign

Eric Berry (S) - 5-years $60,000,000 with $28,000,000 guaranteed at signing ($17,000,000 signing bonus).

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $7.60 m ($4.00 guaranteed base), 2018 - $10.60 m ($7.00 guaranteed base), 2019 - $13.60 m, 2020, $13.60 m, 2021 - $14.60 m

Tryann Mathieu agreed to a 5-year, $62.5 million extension a year ago ($12.5 m/yr w/ $21.25 m guaranteed at signing) to stay with the Cardinals, so that is likely the precedent that Berry's camp will follow. Like with most negotiations, it isn't always the total or average money of the contract, but the guaranteed money. Berry's contract would come in second in average at $12.0 m per, but he'd receive the most guaranteed of any safety to date. Berry is one of the primary leaders on the defense, so his retention is of paramount importance.

Dontari Poe (NT) - 5-years $47,000,000 with $21,000,000 guaranteed at signing ($9,000,000 signing bonus)

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $6.00 m ($4.00 of guaranteed base), 2018 - $10.00 m ($8.00 of guaranteed base), 2019 - $10.00 m, 2020 - $10.00 m, 2021 - 11.00 m

Damon Harrison signed a 5-year $46.25 million deal ($9,250,000/year w/$20 m guaranteed at signing) to go from the Jets to the Giants a year ago, and Poe is every bit as good of a player. It stands to reason that Poe will receive at least a comparable contract. The question would become what teams would forcast him becoming in a 4-3 where he could put more pressure on the QB. With seasons including 4.5 and 6.0 sacks as a NT in a 3-4, teams would likely bet on him being a guy capable of 8+ sacks in a 1-gap scheme, which would put him in the upper echelon of DTs. For those reasons, Poe's value could rise much higher than Harrison's. A good NT is the most essential piece to running a quality 3-4 defense, and the Chiefs have the NFL's best in Dontari Poe. Poe is a must sign.

Dustin Colquitt (P) - 5-year, $20,350,000 Extension, converting $4,000,000 of 2017 money to a signing bonus and guaranteeing another 1,150,000 in 2017 salary and 2,400,000 in 2018 salary for a total of $7.55 million guaranteed.

Estimated cap figures: 2017 - $2.80 m, 2018 - $3.25 m, 2019 - $3.25 m, 2020 - $3.65 m, 2021 - $4.05 m, 2022 - -$4.15 m

Colquitt is an easy conversion of cap funding this season through either cut or extension. In this case the Chiefs gain $2.1 million in cap space and maintain Colquitt as one of the highest paid punters in the league as well as having the most guaranteed money through the end of his career.

Daniel Sorensen (SS) - 1-year RFA original round tender of $1,671,000
James Winchester (LS) - 1-year ERFA tender of $615,000
Cairo Santos (K) - 1-year RFA original round tender of $1,671,000

Resulting Cap Liabilities: $162,079,345 (versus projected $166,000,000 cap = $3,920,655 cap space, plus potential $5.6 m in rollover from 2016)

DRAFT

1. Raekwon McMillan, ILB, Ohio State (6'3" 243)

There is no question that the Chiefs need help at inside linebacker heading into 2017. I'm going out on a limb and saying that McMillan will declare for the draft after listening to some of his comments during bowl week. The difference between him staying and going really depends on how badly he wants a tree planted in his name after only garnering 2nd-team All-American honors this season (shameful really). McMillan is one of Ohio State's better players at a position they've had some all-time greats at, and that is not a small statement. This kid is the real deal. He can cover, shed blockers, blitz, hit like a truck, he can do it all. All that while being the unquestioned leader of the Buckeyes' defense, an outstanding student, and an outstanding community volunteer. McMillan could instantly fill the void left by Derrick Johnson, whom I believe will retire following a second Achilles rupture. If the Chiefs have to trade up to get this kid, I'm on board.

2. Hunter Dimick, DE, Utah (6'3" 266)

Dee Ford has stepped up way more than I thought he would in 2016. While his run defense needs to improve much more, he's come a long way since his rookie season when he was running away from the offense. It may be time I eat some crow on Ford, but he has work yet to do until I'm convinced he can carry this over for the long-haul. With Ford's emergence as a threat, pass rusher becomes a less pressing need. However, Hali may just hang them up after 2016, so a third pass rusher is definitely going to be needed. In the same breath, can KC afford to retain some players on defense in the coming years, including Ford? Dimick reminds me of Hali with decent speed, good strength, outstanding technique, and a motor that just doesn't shut down. Not to mention, he lead the PAC-12 with 13.5 sacks in 2016.

3. Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado (5'11" 205)

Pick your reasons that Chiefs will likely need to add once again to the defensive backfield, which might include: the KeiVarae Russell debacle, Kenneth Acker not playing well, D.J. White showing a rookie learning curve, Phillip Gaines always being injured, or Steven Nelson looking lost 90% of the time. Awuzie reminds me alot of my guy from last season, D.J. White. He's not huge, but he's menacing in all facets. Sticky in coverage, great tackler, physical, can play special teams, blitzes well from the nickel, and can play the football well enough. This kid can line up anywhere in the defensive backfield. As much as KC runs the nickel, Awuzie might be a perfect addition.

4. Erik Magnuson, OT, Michigan (6'5" 305)

The Chiefs may be needing to free up some cap space and Jah Reid seems like a good candidate for the cut list. If that is the case, the Chiefs will need to go shopping for a backup right tackle/guard candidate. Magnuson has the athleticism and demeanor to stay out at tackle in the NFL, but must clean up some technique issues to be consistent in the NFL. Magnuson is one of the best pass blocking lineman in the Big Ten and is a solid run blocker to boot.

4. Nathan Peterman, QB, Pittsburgh (6'2" 225) (Projected Comp - Jeff Allen, OG)

With Rudolph deciding to stay in school, I really don't see the need for the Chiefs to jump on a QB overly early in the draft. That said, I'm putting Peterman back into my mock after a short-lived exit. Peterman checks alot of boxes in the Aaron Murray-type of mold having run a pro-style offense and having a good arm and solid mechanics, but perhaps better athleticism and a stronger arm. The Chiefs will likely need a 3rd QB going into 2017 if they don't retain Nick Foles, which doesn't seem likely given the cap restraints.

5. Jeremy Sprinkle, TE, Arkansas (6'5" 256)

The Chiefs have a fairly healthy stable of tight ends, especially receiving tight ends, but they lack a solid all-around tight end opposite Travis Kelce. Sprinkle is not only a reliable pass receiver and solid end-zone threat, but he's a very good blocker that can make contact on the move. He gets used at multiple spots in the Razorback offense, including in tight, split out, and at half-back, so he has some versatility as a blocker/receiver. Sprinkle doesn't have elite quickness and speed to threaten the seam as a number one tight end in the NFL, but he's got very respectable long speed to break away if given the opportunity.

5. De'Veon Smith, RB, Michigan (5'11" 228) (Projected Comp - Chase Daniel, QB)

The Chiefs very well may release or trade Jamaal Charles this offseason and the stable of RBs gets a bit light after Spencer Ware. Smith is a near clone of Ware in that he's a big, strong, powerful back that hits the hole hard and fast. Smith has good vision and is a one-cut-and-go type of back. Smith also catches the ball very well out of the backfield, which is a huge prerequisite in Andy Reid's offense.

6. Forfeited, Anti-Tampering

6. Treyvon Hester, DT, Toledo (6'3" 300) (Projected Comp - Donald Stephenson, OT)

Dontari Poe is set to hit free agency if he doesn't get a contract, and Jaye Howard will have 1 year left on his 2-year deal, plus there could be depth issues if the Chiefs don't retain Kendall Reyes. The Chiefs will need to continue the pipeline on the D-line. Hester is a good sized tackle with disruptive traits, especially a quick first step off the snap. Hester is routinely double and triple-teamed on the front line, so his stat lines don't look gaudy. Looks like a bit quicker version of Jaye Howard. Needs some work on maintaining his area discipline and play recognition, but his motor doesn't seem to stop. Plays with more of a defensive end mentality than a defensive tackle.

6. Isaac Asiata, OG, Utah (6'3" 323) (Projected Comp - Tyvon Branch, SS)

The Chiefs depth at OG, and even its starters, are a bit suspect. Asiata is a ball of energy on the offensive line with excellent foot speed and great bulk for the position. His abilit to pull and get into space is a huge upgrade to what Zach Fulton can offer. Asiata has played a bit of tackle and both guard spots in his four years with the Utes, giving him some flexibility as a rotational lineman at the onset. If Asiata can clean up his tendency to lean into blocks after engaging, he'll be a quality player on the interior. Asiata won the PAC-12's Morris Trophy as the top offensive lineman in the conference as voted by his peers on the defensive line.

7. Josh Augusta, DT, Missouri (6'4" 346)

The Chiefs may have a major issue if Poe leaves in free agency, but if he's retained the NT position becomes less of a concern. This is where a player like Augusta could be developed for the future. Augusta was beginning to look more like a baby mammoth than a football player, but finally seemed to get his weight under control in 2016, and his stat line benefited tremendously. The fact remains, his weight issues are going to scare teams off and push him down in the draft despite his solid play in 2016. If Augusta can maintain a sub-350 pound weight and continue to develop, he could be a force on the interior that commands double-teams.

Change Lists (Last update 12/26/16)

Spoiler!

Changes 1: Billy Price (OG), Mitch Leidner (QB), Zach Pascal (WR) out. Nathan Peterman (QB), Marlon Mack (RB), DeAngelo Yancey (WR) in.
Movement: Magnuson from round 5 to round 4. Awuzie from round 4 to round 3. Hester from round 7 to round 6. Dimick from round 4 to round 2. Nacua from round 3 to round 7.

Changes 2: Zach Cunningham (ILB), Marlon Mack (RB), Nathan Peterman (QB) out. Mason Rudolph (QB), Marquel Lee (ILB), De'Veon Smith (RB) in.

Changes 3: Vincent Taylor (DT), Kai Nacua (FS) out. Jeremy Sprinkle (TE), Josh Augusta (NT) in.

Changes 4: Mason Rudolph (QB), Marquel Lee (ILB), DeAngelo Yancey (WR) out. Raekwon McMillan (ILB), Nathan Peterman (QB), Isaac Asiata (OG) in.

ROSTER

QB: A. Smith, T. Bray, N. Peterman
RB: S. Ware, C. West, D. Smith
FB: A. Sherman
WR: J. Maclin, C. Conley, T. Hill, D. Robinson, D. Thomas
TE: T. Kelce, R. Travis, J. Sprinkle, J. O'Shaughnessy
OL: E. Fisher, M. Schwartz, E. Magnuson
OG: L. Duvernay-Tardiff, P. Ehinger, I. Asiata
OC: M. Morse, Z. Fulton
DE: C. Jones, J. Howard, A. Bailey, R. Nunez-Roches, T. Hester
NT: D. Poe, J. Augusta
OLB: J. Houston, D. Ford, H. Dimick, D. Nicholas, F. Zombo
ILB: R. McMillan, J. Mauga, R. Wilson, D. Alexander, T. Smith, D. Johnson
CB: M. Peters, T. Mitchell, P. Gaines, S. Nelson, D. White, C. Awuzie, K. Acker
FS: R. Parker, E. Murray
SS: E. Berry, D. Sorensen
ST: C. Santos, D. Colquitt, J. Winchester

[BryanBusby]

I'm not a fan of Dabo when it comes to having guys ready to be NFL players when they leave Clemson.

I don't blame him as its his job to win football games and not be a free pipeline to billion dollar franchises. I mean shit, most of them look at a KFC building, a yellow circle, Jenna Jameson fisting herself and a mechanical pencil and go oh ok a screen pass.

His issues look correctable and the Chiefs have the staff and the ability to have patience with him and fix the issues.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

I'm not a fan of Dabo when it comes to having guys ready to be NFL players when they leave Clemson.

I don't blame him as its his job to win football games and not be a free pipeline to billion dollar franchises. I mean shit, most of them look at a KFC building, a yellow circle, Jenna Jameson fisting herself and a mechanical pencil and go oh ok a screen pass.

His issues look correctable and the Chiefs have the staff and the ability to have patience with him and fix the issues.

Apart from sheer size, few things are harder to correct than piss-poor mechanics made habit by years of repetition.

And frankly, size is a hell of a lot easier to scheme around.

His mechanics aren't quite as bad as say, Tim Tebows, but they're bad enough as to not be NFL caliber. So they'll need a pretty thorough overhaul. So much so, in fact, that you're bordering on the whole frame-off rebuild that Tebow would've needed.

Did you see Tebow's mechanical issues as 'correctable'?

Footwork and mechanics have sunk many a productive college QB at the next level. You just cannot get away with any kind of inconsistency at the next level. Your arm has to do exactly what you expect it to do every single time and to do that, your entire base has to be rock solid and repeatable. Watson's isn't.

Like I said - depending on who's available, I'd consider Watson, but don't whistle past the graveyard with him. There's a chance - and not a small one - that he's never an NFL caliber player.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Hey Crow, what's your take on TT's Pat Mahomes? The only consistent knock on him I'm finding is criticism of the scheme that he's playing under.
From what I've seen, he's got a good touch in terms of being able to accurately deliver both a high-velocity zip between defenders, and an airy "float" on longer routes which the receiver doesn't have to slow down or over-extend himself to complete.
Your opinion?

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Apart from sheer size, few things are harder to correct than piss-poor mechanics made habit by years of repetition.

And frankly, size is a hell of a lot easier to scheme around.

His mechanics aren't quite as bad as say, Tim Tebows, but they're bad enough as to not be NFL caliber. So they'll need a pretty thorough overhaul. So much so, in fact, that you're bordering on the whole frame-off rebuild that Tebow would've needed.

Did you see Tebow's mechanical issues as 'correctable'?

Footwork and mechanics have sunk many a productive college QB at the next level. You just cannot get away with any kind of inconsistency at the next level. Your arm has to do exactly what you expect it to do every single time and to do that, your entire base has to be rock solid and repeatable. Watson's isn't.

Like I said - depending on who's available, I'd consider Watson, but don't whistle past the graveyard with him. There's a chance - and not a small one - that he's never an NFL caliber player.

I don't think Watsons mechanics are as bad off as you do.

Tebow had a lot more issues than just mechanics.

Watson would be going to one of the best Offensive Coaches in the NFL if the Chiefs took him. Andy took Vick from coming off the street after being in prison, with some of the shittiest mechanics, and turned him into a passer that nobody thought could be done.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Dagnabit

Hey Crow, what's your take on TT's Pat Mahomes? The only consistent knock on him I'm finding is criticism of the scheme that he's playing under.
From what I've seen, he's got a good touch in terms of being able to accurately deliver both a high-velocity zip between defenders, and an airy "float" on longer routes which the receiver doesn't have to slow down or over-extend himself to complete.
Your opinion?

I'd bet 90% of college QB's don't run an NFL-style scheme anymore, so I think the paradigm of thought about that is going to have to begin to change. I think you have to begin looking more at what he's asked to do from a read perspective, something I can't answer with even 50% accuracy, and then look at mechanics, pocket awareness, and footwork.

It appears that what he's asked to do at TT is more than just a hot read offense. He seems to keep his eyes down field and go through some progressions. How complex the scheme is for him or how many reads he has, I have no idea. It just seems like he does fine in that regard.

His throwing mechanics on the top half are good. He has a relatively compact, quick release. Things change with his feet. He's not sloppy as much as he has bad habits. He tends to know how to set his feet and make a good, accurate throw. The problem is that he doesn't do it enough.

He has a bad habit of throwing off his back foot. He has a bad habit of scrambling and not setting his feet to throw. He also lets himself get lead feet and doesn't keep his feet active and moving with him as he scans down field. Those things have to be corrected. He loses way too much velocity on his passes when he does them, and that's going to lead to NFL INTs rather than the TDs he got in college.

He has a terribly bad habit of hanging onto the ball too long, dropping it down, patting it, and so forth. I don't like this. Make a decision and throw the football. He's in trouble if he does this in the NFL.

He has a terrible habit of dropping backwards and scrambling out of his pocket, rather than stepping up into it. Given that he starts out of the pistol or shotgun 99% of the time, this is extremely concerning. He has bad habits in a situation that gives him more time than he'll see in the NFL.

It may seem like I'm being overly critical of the guy, because I am. He has a lot of issues with his feet and if he doesn't change them, he's going to bust.

I would not draft him in round 1. Maybe round 2, and hope like hell my position coaches could fix some really bad habits because the kid does have a good arm when he's set to deliver the football correctly. I might change that outlook if I see positive changes in his footwork after he gets some pre-draft coaching, but that's where it is now.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I'd bet 90% of college QB's don't run an NFL-style scheme anymore, so I think the paradigm of thought about that is going to have to begin to change-

Thanks, Crow.

I was thinking more of a round 3 pick, but I don't see that happening as the market is going to be overvalued this year. I've watched some clips on each of the "top 5" guys this year and outside of Trubisky( whom I would grudgingly part a #2 for ), I'm not seeing much to get excited about.

Kizer and Watson have some nice athleticism, but nothing about either of them screams "prototype NFL passer" to me. I would however take a "Tyler Bray"-flier on Chad Kelly if the opportunity was there.

Thanks!

[BryanBusby]

Mahomes is a guy that should be Round 3 but someone will fall in loze with his arm and size. He's gonna go early 2nd.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

Mahomes is a guy that should be Round 3 but someone will fall in loze with his arm and size. He's gonna go early 2nd.

Yep.

[KChiefs1]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nfl-moc...-151720662.htm

30. Kansas City Chiefs — Vanderbilt LB Zach Cunningham



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