Driverless cars could change everything

[JohnnyV13]

The problem driverless cars ran into is the limits of AI. Yes, AI can do a good job emulating human decision-making, but when you run into a weakness it hits a quandry and can't come up with reasonable work-arounds on the fly. Instead, it brick walls and as in the above OP, will created congestion trying to deal with minor hazards that aren't in its programming.

[CapsLockKey]

Was in SF last month for a conference, and yes those things were all over the place. I found it hilarious when one of them stopped right over top of a huge crosswalk at a red light and 100s of conference goers couldn't safely cross the street because this driverless "smart" car couldn't comprehend a very visibly marked crosswalk. Meanwhile all the cars with actual drivers were where they were supposed to be.

[Rain Man]

I had a rental car on a long road trip a while back, and it took me a bit to figure out the adaptive cruise control because I'd never seen it. I'd be on the highway cruising along and then I'd notice that I was going five miles under the speed limit for some reason. I eventually figured out that it was because there was a pokey person ahead of me, and so I would slow down to start a pokey parade with them. I had to switch lanes to get back up to speed.

But it made me wonder - if everyone had that same system, could you end up with a big pokey parade of dozens of cars if people didn't notice and pass? It seems like it.

[Rain Man]

For most of my life, I think a bigger issue than self-driving may be not owning a car. Self-driving only really would affect me on longer road trips since I'd probably be actively monitoring in my normal urban driving.

But if we found ourselves in a world where a bunch of driverless cars prowl around and I order them up on an as-needed basis, then I won't own a car. And if I don't own a car, I have an empty garage, and I'm either renting it out to an old-school car owner or more likely I'm converting it into an ADU and making notable rental income.

I think this trend is happening at a perfect time for me to generate retirement income and also not be a dangerous old codger on the road.

[Chief Pagan]

Non-ownership, self-driving cars could be really transformative.

If you are no longer buying a car based on: well sometimes I need to carry five people and all this stuff and drive it up in the mountains and since I own it, it's part of my identity so I should get a big ass SUV/Truck etc.

I usually work from home and to the extent I ever commute, it is only about 15 minutes. But if I had some commute that was pushing up against an hour or something, and I was being picked up in a single occupancy vehicle (which is a separate discussion). It really only needs to have a single seat that folds back flat like a first class airline, but the car could be relatively small since it only needs to hold one person and not much stuff. I would plan on sleeping, nodding off in the morning. On the way back home, would probably recline back and spend it on my phone/tablet like I would on a plane.

For going to the grocery store or something involving family, yea you would order something larger. But unless the ride sharing is actually, like going to involve sharing rides, a lot of cars could both be small but have one, large comfortable seat.

The thing that worries me about the on demand car, is it not actually being there when I really want it. Like when there is a forest fire or flood, I want to have a car in my driveway that is mine, that I know I can drive away in. Not a 'sorry, we aren't going to drive any of our cars into that to pick you up'.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

Non-ownership, self-driving cars could be really transformative.

If you are no longer buying a car based on: well sometimes I need to carry five people and all this stuff and drive it up in the mountains and since I own it, it's part of my identity so I should get a big ass SUV/Truck etc.

I usually work from home and to the extent I ever commute, it is only about 15 minutes. But if I had some commute that was pushing up against an hour or something, and I was being picked up in a single occupancy vehicle (which is a separate discussion). It really only needs to have a single seat that folds back flat like a first class airline, but the car could be relatively small since it only needs to hold one person and not much stuff. I would plan on sleeping, nodding off in the morning. On the way back home, would probably recline back and spend it on my phone/tablet like I would on a plane.

For going to the grocery store or something involving family, yea you would order something larger. But unless the ride sharing is actually, like going to involve sharing rides, a lot of cars could both be small but have one, large comfortable seat.

The thing that worries me about the on demand car, is it not actually being there when I really want it. Like when there is a forest fire or flood, I want to have a car in my driveway that is mine, that I know I can drive away in. Not a 'sorry, we aren't going to drive any of our cars into that to pick you up'.

Having my own car would also be really good if I slice my hand open cutting watermelon and need to get to an emergency room. But I guess we already have vehicles for that situation, and we call them ambulances.

So yeah, maybe it's big disasters that are the impetus for that. But in that case maybe you keep a scooter in the garage.

The life you're describing seems awesome. And you're right - you could have different sizes of autonomous vehicles that you can call if you're one-person commuting or going out to dinner with the wife or needing to bring drywall home from the store.

I'd also be thrilled to have a self-driving car for long road trips. It would be even better than a train because I could pull over at will.

This needs to happen.

[Graystoke]

This technology is going to line up with me aging perfectly.
My kids won’t have to have the discussion about should Dad quit driving.

[mr. tegu]

I cannot possibly imagine relying on a car to come get me for my daily activities. I don’t always plan ahead to go to the store or park or whatever. So the idea of ordering a car and waiting on it multiple times a day just sounds awful.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

I cannot possibly imagine relying on a car to come get me for my daily activities. I don’t always plan ahead to go to the store or park or whatever. So the idea of ordering a car and waiting on it multiple times a day just sounds awful.

In the short-term, sure. I can imagine a distant future, though, where a majority of cars on the road aren't owned by an individual, and it would presumably be rare for you to have to wait for more than a couple of minutes for a ride.

Just think about how much lost "productivity" cars have today just sitting on the side of the road, in parking lots, or in garages. If cars are instead constantly moving and picking people up when they're needed, everything becomes more efficient.

Obviously that's just a vision, and I can't really see us getting to that point in the next decade unless someone makes another breakthrough, but I bet that's where we'll get to eventually.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by DaFace

In the short-term, sure. I can imagine a distant future, though, where a majority of cars on the road aren't owned by an individual, and it would presumably be rare for you to have to wait for more than a couple of minutes for a ride.

Just think about how much lost "productivity" cars have today just sitting on the side of the road, in parking lots, or in garages. If cars are instead constantly moving and picking people up when they're needed, everything becomes more efficient.

Obviously that's just a vision, and I can't really see us getting to that point in the next decade unless someone makes another breakthrough, but I bet that's where we'll get to eventually.

There's car productivity and there's people productivity. Look at all of the people driving on I-70 across western Kansas with their eyes half-glazed. With self-driving cars they could be reading a book or knitting or learning how to use a band saw instead of staring at the car ahead of them.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

There's car productivity and there's people productivity. Look at all of the people driving on I-70 across western Kansas with their eyes half-glazed. With self-driving cars they could be reading a book or knitting or learning how to use a band saw instead of staring at the car ahead of them.

Seems legit.



(but DALL-E 3 apparently doesn't know what a band saw is)

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

I cannot possibly imagine relying on a car to come get me for my daily activities. I don’t always plan ahead to go to the store or park or whatever. So the idea of ordering a car and waiting on it multiple times a day just sounds awful.

The main issue will be cost.


It will be FAR cheaper to order your car a couple times a day than to own a car and pay for it just to have it sit around for 20 hours a day.


Ordering cars will get faster , cheaper and easier. Most people are not going to choose to pay for a car or two full time when they can just order and use them as needed.


Just my thoughts... main issue: cost


When the cost of driverless is far less than owning, thats when people will start switching.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Ming the Merciless

The main issue will be cost.


It will be FAR cheaper to order your car a couple times a day than to own a car and pay for it just to have it sit around for 20 hours a day.


Ordering cars will get faster , cheaper and easier. Most people are not going to choose to pay for a car or two full time when they can just order and use them as needed.


Just my thoughts... main issue: cost


When the cost of driverless is far less than owning, thats when people will start switching.

Maybe. Convenience goes a long way as well, though. If you actually think through how much people spend on cars - $500 car payments are pretty common plus maintenance and fuel. Compare that with calling an Uber a couple of times a day at $10-$15 per ride, and the cost equation isn't really that far off for many people even with drivers.

However, having to wait 5-10 minutes every time you need a ride? That kind of starts to suck.

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Maybe. Convenience goes a long way as well, though. If you actually think through how much people spend on cars - $500 car payments are pretty common plus maintenance and fuel. Compare that with calling an Uber a couple of times a day at $10-$15 per ride, and the cost equation isn't really that far off for many people even with drivers.

However, having to wait 5-10 minutes every time you need a ride? That kind of starts to suck.

Im talking about total costs.


The models that I have seen are something like this:


You join a club/group and pay a monthly fee to be able to use 1, 2 or 3 different kinds of vehicles. (A pickup, a sedan, a minivan for example, so multiply the total costs!). You get so many hours over a month, and if you go over you can pay extra.


But the savings will be there. No insurance, No maintenance, No fuel costs etc. Paying for part of a car in a group will absolutely be cheaper than paying for a whole car that sits around most of the time. Plus you will have more options for different types of vehicles.


I dont think people will pay MORE for the "convienience" of not having a car right at their house (so I agree with you on that) .. But you bet your ass people will join clubs where you pay LESS for having access to more kinds of cars and no insurance/gas/oil changes/ repairs ! (and be willing to wait 10 min)


Also, obviously not EVERYONE will do this. Guys like me who need a truck for work, probably will have a work truck at home. Or people who drive more than allowed by group ownership etc, or maybe as a luxury or status symbol.

[Hoover]

Originally Posted by Ming the Merciless

Im talking about total costs.


The models that I have seen are something like this:


You join a club/group and pay a monthly fee to be able to use 1, 2 or 3 different kinds of vehicles. (A pickup, a sedan, a minivan for example, so multiply the total costs!). You get so many hours over a month, and if you go over you can pay extra.


But the savings will be there. No insurance, No maintenance, No fuel costs etc. Paying for part of a car in a group will absolutely be cheaper than paying for a whole car that sits around most of the time. Plus you will have more options for different types of vehicles.


I dont think people will pay MORE for the "convienience" of not having a car right at their house (so I agree with you on that) .. But you bet your ass people will join clubs where you pay LESS for having access to more kinds of cars and no insurance/gas/oil changes/ repairs ! (and be willing to wait 10 min)


Also, obviously not EVERYONE will do this. Guys like me who need a truck for work, probably will have a work truck at home. Or people who drive more than allowed by group ownership etc, or maybe as a luxury or status symbol.

This is probably the next logical step.

I'm a tight ass when it comes to cars. I'd love to have a nice vehicle in the garage but I just can't justify the expense. My two cars are both over ten years old one both over 100k miles, one is over 210k. Have not had a car payment for 8 years now.

The ONLY time I wish I had something different is when we are going on a trip of some sort. A subscription service would be great for that. Still think I'd want to have something sitting in the garage, but maybe that plus a subscription would be great.