Chiefs Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can!

frozenchief · 08-05-2015, 01:00 PM

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

KCrockaholic · 08-05-2015, 01:04 PM

If we get 8 wins then blow the whole ****ing thing up again and ****ing draft a QB. There's no other excuse for this team to win less than 9 games.

**The Franchise** · 08-05-2015, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

If we get 8 wins then blow the whole ****ing thing up again and ****ing draft a QB. There's no other excuse for this team to win less than 9 games.

Blow the whole thing up? No.

Get rid of Alex Smith? Yes.

**Dave Lane** · 08-05-2015, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Blow the whole thing up? No.

Get rid of Alex Smith? Yes.

I've got my car warmed up.

KCrockaholic · 08-05-2015, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Blow the whole thing up? No.

Get rid of Alex Smith? Yes.

I guess that's what I meant, I was just frustrated by the FO article. But the point would obviously be to find a better QB than Alex Smith. Which means drafting one. Which means possible growing pains for a year, or two. Unfortunately for every Wilson and Roethlisberger there's a Brees and Eli Manning.

**Mav** · 08-05-2015, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

I guess that's what I meant, I was just frustrated by the FO article. But the point would obviously be to find a better QB than Alex Smith. Which means drafting one. Which means possible growing pains for a year, or two. Unfortunately for every Wilson and Roethlisberger there's a Brees and Eli Manning.

I'm lost. There are 7 Super Bowl rings between those qb's. Who are the bad ones?

KCrockaholic · 08-05-2015, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

I'm lost. There are 7 Super Bowl rings between those qb's. Who are the bad ones?

I was pointing out the difference between an immediate SuperBowl quality QB (Which is what this team needs) after being drafted and the guys who struggled early.

NinerDoug · 08-05-2015, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

I'm lost. There are 7 Super Bowl rings between those qb's. Who are the bad ones?

I think the point was that Brees and Manning took a while.

Discuss Thrower · 08-05-2015, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Blow the whole thing up? No.

Get rid of Alex Smith? Yes.

Smith isn't going anywhere until the 2017 season is completed.

Better hope they draft a QB high next season..

But let's get real here, they're going to have to take a LT.

Quesadilla Joe · 08-06-2015, 12:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Blow the whole thing up? No.

Get rid of Alex Smith? Yes.

Alex Smith's contract is structured in a way that makes him basically uncuttable until 2017.

Tombstone RJ · 08-06-2015, 12:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Blow the whole thing up? No.

Get rid of Alex Smith? Yes.

good luck with that... he's your QB for another couple of years.

BlackOp · 08-06-2015, 12:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

good luck with that... he's your QB for another couple of years.

And Denver's QB after this 9-7 season is? Fox wasn't your problem..the problem is that the whole team's emotional well-being was contingent on Manning being in control. Whenever he tanked your entire team tanked..like in the SB. It was the same shit in Indy..

Tombstone RJ · 08-06-2015, 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackOp

And Denver's QB after this 9-7 season is? Fox wasn't your problem..the problem is that the whole team's emotional well-being was contingent on Manning being in control. Whenever he tanked your entire team tanked..like in the SB. It was the same shit in Indy..

using your crystal ball again I see... tell me this, o great one, when will Alex Smith throw his first TD pass to a WR?

Mother****erJones · 08-06-2015, 07:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

good luck with that... he's your QB for another couple of years.

I wish he wasn't but it's not Matt Cassel. So I can handle it while we look for a QB.

duncan_idaho · 08-06-2015, 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mother****erJones

I wish he wasn't but it's not Matt Cassel. So I can handle it while we look for a QB.

It would be nice to, you know, start looking? That would be cool.

Let me know when that happens.

08-05-2015, 01:00 PM	Topic Starter
frozenchief Veteran Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1621379	Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes: Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers. Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.
Posts: 3,899

08-05-2015, 01:04 PM	#2
KCrockaholic Sarcasm Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Olathe Casino cash: $4782900	If we get 8 wins then blow the whole **ing thing up again and **ing draft a QB. There's no other excuse for this team to win less than 9 games.
Posts: 21,133