Chiefs Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! - Page 8

frozenchief · 08-05-2015, 01:00 PM

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

**Dave Lane** · 08-06-2015, 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

You're the worst

It's not even close. Dude is bottom tier poster.

Hammock Parties · 08-06-2015, 07:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

SUPER OVER COMPLICATED AND STUPIDLY LONG POST ABOUT SOMETHING THAT IS IN ACTUALITY RATHER SIMPLE

"maybe if i come up with a super complicated explanation why Alex is always getting sacked a shit ton and throwing down the field less than every other QB ever for the last four years, people will think I'm smart and he's actually good!"

duncan_idaho · 08-06-2015, 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mother****erJones

I wish he wasn't but it's not Matt Cassel. So I can handle it while we look for a QB.

It would be nice to, you know, start looking? That would be cool.

Let me know when that happens.

**Dave Lane** · 08-06-2015, 08:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

It would be nice to, you know, start looking? That would be cool.

Let me know when that happens.

How old are you now? Do you have any grandchild we could past the information to when this comes to pass.

Tombstone RJ · 08-06-2015, 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackOp

And Denver's QB after this 9-7 season is? Fox wasn't your problem..the problem is that the whole team's emotional well-being was contingent on Manning being in control. Whenever he tanked your entire team tanked..like in the SB. It was the same shit in Indy..

using your crystal ball again I see... tell me this, o great one, when will Alex Smith throw his first TD pass to a WR?

Reerun_KC · 08-06-2015, 08:21 AM

I want to thank everyone in this thread for posting great new and informative information about Alex Smith and not rehashing the last 3 years.

Well done!

**RealSNR** · 08-06-2015, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

That's what I said. Because the group of dumbasses here can't think their way out of a paper bag. There is no nuance.

I didn't post...

Coaching has something to do with what happens.
49ers were dominating more often than not and played it safe.
Sack rate increased in 2nd half of games.
Harbaugh and co had a clunked up way of doing things. Funny how Kaepernick also got sacked a bunch in '13 and '14.
McNabb also was at the top of the charts for sacks over his time with Reid.

or

A good portion of any sack total is on a QB.

Smith appears to me over years of watching around avg at how often he is at fault for getting sacked.

You take a player like that and put him in the situations the last 4 years his sack rate will go up.
Mediocre Pass Protection
Mediocre Pass Catchers
Top 5 Defenses
Run the clock
Win the games

The post Bye in 2013 it was pretty good pass pro + having to push for more offense. Sack rate dropped to like 30 a season. Right around avg.

Things happen for a reason or many reasons.

OH WAIT
I did post that.

But tards here choose to ignore whatever doesn't fit the keep it simple for stupids. 'Alex Smith sucks herp derp I'm a true true fan not one of those deluded true fans.'

What the **** did we do to deserve you coming here and giving everybody AIDS of the brain?

**BigMeatballDave** · 08-06-2015, 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

using your crystal ball again I see... tell me this, o great one, when will Alex Smith throw his first TD pass to a WR?

Run along, now. MagicHef and Knowmo need their fluffer...

ViperVisor · 08-06-2015, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs

"maybe if i come up with a super complicated explanation why Alex is always getting sacked a shit ton and throwing down the field less than every other QB ever for the last four years, people will think I'm smart and he's actually good!"

You thought Geno was teh 1.1 da futrue.

**BossChief** · 08-06-2015, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

This is the year for Alex Smith to show that he can lead this team deep in the playoffs.

He's got the defense. We didn't stick him with some rookie WR who has to learn everything. We gave him the best available WR who knew the offense. He's got a top 5 RB behind him and a top 5 TE to dink and dunk too. Yeah Wilson, Thomas and Conley aren't the greatest 2, 3 and 4 WRs to play with....but they're chock full of ability. The only downfall is the offensive line and it "should" be better than last year.

Unless major injuries occur.....this is Alex's year to win or get the **** off of this team.

Hammock Parties · 08-06-2015, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

You thought Geno was teh 1.1 da futrue.

So? He was worth a shot.

Retread QBs aren't worth anything. They are proven wastes of time.

Discuss Thrower · 08-06-2015, 09:35 AM

Y'all better hope Geno's coffin gets nailed this year and he doesn't wind up with any semblance of competent QB play...

**BossChief** · 08-06-2015, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

And I do think if Alex doesn't show major nuts this year Andy will Donovan McMabb his ass.

that would be great, either way.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

You thought Geno was teh 1.1 da futrue.

I'd rather have Geno Smith groomed for a couple years to be the starter than the crap we've gotten from Eric Fisher, thus far.

Or Bridgewater the next year

Or Carr

I really think this team ****ed up by not at least taking a shot.

Discuss Thrower · 08-06-2015, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

I'd rather have Geno Smith groomed for a couple years to be the starter than the crap we've gotten from Eric Fisher, thus far.

Or Bridgewater the next year

Or Carr

I really think this team ****ed up by not at least taking a shot.

There's a certain contingent here outright ignoring the existence of Bridgewater.

O.city · 08-06-2015, 09:40 AM

4500 yards, 30 tds passing.

5k total yards this year. Book it

08-05-2015, 01:00 PM
frozenchief Veteran Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1611379	Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes: Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers. Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.
Posts: 3,899

08-06-2015, 08:21 AM	#111
Reerun_KC Rock Chalk Jayhawks! KU!!! Join Date: Aug 2005 Casino cash: $8301160	I want to thank everyone in this thread for posting great new and informative information about Alex Smith and not rehashing the last 3 years. Well done!
Posts: 934

08-06-2015, 09:35 AM	#117
Discuss Thrower "You like to drink?" Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: "I like to drink." Casino cash: $3216869	Y'all better hope Geno's coffin gets nailed this year and he doesn't wind up with any semblance of competent QB play... __________________ Chiefs 2016 Opponents: Home: JAX, TEN, NO, TB, NYJ. Away: HOU, IND, ATL, CAR, PIT Chiefs 2017 Opponents: Home: BUF, MIA, PHI, WSH, AFC North. Away: NE, NYJ, NYG, DAL, AFC South
Posts: 42,710

08-06-2015, 09:40 AM	#120
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $2734064	4500 yards, 30 tds passing. 5k total yards this year. Book it
Posts: 81,250