Chiefs Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! - Page 12

frozenchief · 08-05-2015, 01:00 PM

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

**BigMeatballDave** · 08-06-2015, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

So much of this.

gets written off as a failure after two years of shitty play with no difference given to the fact that he was a rookie with technique flaws

Eric Fisher?

**Rausch** · 08-06-2015, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

But if Alex has to throw enough to get 4500 yards, the Chiefs will be 4-12. And on top of that Alex Smith will be injured from all the hits he is taking.

We threw it a stupid number of times last year. And Alex was the least aggressive passer (down field) in the league when it mattered. On top of that Andy liked to forget we even had Charles/Davis/Dat most of the time.

The only way this team wins a ****ing thing at all is if we surround Alex with an insane amount of pass catching talent.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

Also with the Chiefs defense, and Jamal there is just no scenario that requires the Chiefs to need that many yards.

Defenses don't take Jamal out of the game - Andy does.

Someone should look this up - when JC has 20 touches or more per game (under Andy/Dorsey) what is our winning percentage?

I'll bet a space in my sig it's over 70%...

Reerun_KC · 08-06-2015, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

QB rating last 22 ?

97.4

How many hidden touchdowns?

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

Someone should tell the coaching staff and front office this then. They've tried to put the pieces in the offense to have it happen so....

Okay. They aren't going to have the lead in the fourth quarter and come out chucking it all over. Won't need to.

Discuss Thrower · 08-06-2015, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

Eric Fisher?

Geno Smith wasn't the #1 overall pick.

**Rausch** · 08-06-2015, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

QB rating last 22 ?

97.4

You know what Steve Bono's career QB rating was as a Chief?

His record?

And he's still a steaming pile of opossum $hit in the Arizona sun...

**BossChief** · 08-06-2015, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

I was very surprised kc didn't take Bridgewater. I thought, for sure, Bridgewater was gonna be a chief. I mean, he was just sitting there.

I'm a big Dee Ford fan, but that pick should have been Bridgewater.

**Rausch** · 08-06-2015, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

I'm a big Dee Ford fan, but that pick should have been Bridgewater.

It should have been a WR...

**BigMeatballDave** · 08-06-2015, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs

Huge Chiefs fan.

We require a cleansing fire.

I root for devastation, and the new birth it brings.

We must burn the tick out with a hot match. If the skin gets burned, so be it. It will regenerate.

This just happened a few years ago and won't happen any time soon, so get on board or wallow in your own misery elsewhere.

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

We threw it a stupid number of times last year. And Alex was the least aggressive passer (down field) in the league when it mattered. On top of that Andy liked to forget we even had Charles/Davis/Dat most of the time.

The only way this team wins a ****ing thing at all is if we surround Alex with an insane amount of pass catching talent.

Defenses don't take Jamal out of the game - Andy does.

Someone should look this up - when JC has 20 touches or more per game (under Andy/Dorsey) what is our winning percentage?

I'll bet a space in my sig it's over 70%...

What elite qb doesn't have elite talent? And Alex isn't elite we all know that but this assertion that only qb's like Alex must have elite talent Is stupid.

I guess maybe I'm hoping Andy sticks with the run later in games.

Hammock Parties · 08-06-2015, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

You know what Steve Bono's career QB rating was as a Chief?

His record?

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMeatballDave

This just happened a few years ago and won't happen any time soon, so get on board or wallow in your own misery elsewhere.

He'd rather spew his misery all over us.

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs

Five straight actually. Bono didn't do that.

**BigMeatballDave** · 08-06-2015, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Geno Smith wasn't the #1 overall pick.

Duh

Pick 1.1 gets ample opportunity. 2nd rd picks need to produce quickly or else.

**Rausch** · 08-06-2015, 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

What elite qb doesn't have elite talent?

Brady? (I know, an unfair comparison.)

Wilson? His WR's were average at best and he managed two insane (the Green Bay game is one for the ages) come-back's in back to back seasons.

Eli? When he's on he's on without the top shelf talent he has now.

Ruthlessrapist? He keeps dropping MOAB-passes to speedsters who can't catch or run routes worth a **** while making them millionaires in the FA market.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

And Alex isn't elite we all know that but this assertion that only qb's like Alex must have elite talent Is stupid.

His talent level is far above his play. He holds himself back.

Giving him a $3it O line and only one legitimate WR for 3 years isn't going to make him a more aggressive QB...

08-05-2015, 01:00 PM
frozenchief Veteran Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1621379	Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes: Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers. Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.
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