Chiefs Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! - Page 14

frozenchief · 08-05-2015, 01:00 PM

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

BlackOp · 08-06-2015, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

The 2013 Chiefs didn't beat anyone good either maybe save the Eagles.. Who even then had Vick at QB.

Jesus..they were coming off a 2-14 season with a new QB and entirely new scheme/coaching staff. Only a reerun would find something to bitch about starting 9-0.

They beat the 9 teams on their schedule...and when you go 2-14 the year before..you play bottom feeders.

They beat Miami w/o Charles 34-15 on the road. 44-14 vs. NE and 24-20 vs. Seattle. Put up 34 on the Rams defense and swept SD. They were a better team last year....brutal schedule, horrible offciating and injuries did them in.

Coogs · 08-06-2015, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackOp

Jesus..they were coming off a 2-14 season with a new QB and entirely new scheme/coaching staff. Only a reerun would find something to bitch about starting 9-0.

They beat the 9 teams on their schedule...and when you go 2-14 the year before..you play bottom feeders.

They beat Miami w/o Charles 34-15 on the road. 44-14 vs. NE and 24-20 vs. Seattle. Put up 34 on the Rams defense and swept SD. They were a better team last year....brutal schedule, horrible offciating and injuries did them in.

Records have nothing to do with schedule the following season. Every team in the NFL plays 4 division winners, 4 second place teams, 4 third place teams, and 4 fourth place teams from the year before.

**BigMeatballDave** · 08-06-2015, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

You should be beaten to death with a football...

If it's a Brady football, I'm not sure death is possible...

KCTitus · 08-06-2015, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCSLC2008

It would more like being an 8 yard pass on third and 10. Not a 2 yard pass. You probably got that, but I wanted to make sure you didn't think the 2.3 was the depth of the pass. I don't care how far it is, as long as the conversion rate is good - it's an efficiency and field position trade off...

Well...a passing play consists of two components the pass distance from the line of scrimmage to the player in the air, and the amount of yardage the receiver can obtain subsequent to receiving the pass. If Alex, throws a pass to Jamaal Charles standing 1 yard beyond the line of scrimmage and manages to get 8 yards on 3rd and 10, that's chalked up as a 9 yard pass play, when 8 of it was Jamaal and 1 of it was Alex.

Maybe there was no other player open than the one at the line of scrimmage and that's all Alex had to throw to, so again, is that Alex or play calling, I dont care. Basically it tells the defense that KC is not going to try to stretch the play. Sometimes the ball has to be thrown into a covered receiver and give him a chance to make a play.

Sure, if you're a Marty disciple, what I describe is heresy...since according to Marty and offenses job was not to score points (ahem, points are the only way to win) but rather not to turn the ball over. So yeah, dump the ball in the flat, 'hope' your guy gets the first down and punt. Something about that sucks, IMO.

**Mav** · 08-06-2015, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

The 2013 Chiefs didn't beat anyone good either maybe save the Eagles.. Who even then had Vick at QB.

Who gives a shit. They beat teams that were better the previous season than they were. The Chiefs were 2-14 with the number one pick in the draft.

Maybe you should stop being so obtuse and realize that WINNING any games that next season was an accomplishment.

Because literally EVERY SINGLE team the Chiefs beat in 2013 were better than them in 2012.

How dense are you really?

Please don't answer that. Its definitely rhetorical.

Sweet Daddy Hate · 08-06-2015, 04:59 PM

Alex Smith will have everyone on this board not named "Alex Smith Suck-off Poster" kicking puppies by week 8.

pugsnotdrugs19 · 08-06-2015, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bufkin

Amazing that there's still people who have disdain for Alex Smith. In this league, it can be extremely difficult to find an average QB, let alone one like Smith who has an unheard of turnover ratio. Is he Aaron Rodgers? No, but nobody is. If you rely on an elite running back and a solid defense like the Chiefs do, you really can't ask for much more than what Smith is providing.

couldn't have said it better myself.

He just fits what they do. Is he top 10? Hell no. 15? Probably. Regardless he does the job.

It's like people completely forget he was TWO muffed punts from going to a Super Bowl.

Sweet Daddy Hate · 08-06-2015, 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

couldn't have said it better myself.

He just fits what they do. Is he top 10? Hell no. 15? Probably. Regardless he does the job.

It's like people completely forget he was TWO muffed punts from going to a Super Bowl.

He may "fit", but his skills and performance are pure shit.

**Easy 6** · 08-06-2015, 06:55 PM

Stopped reading at "7.9 wins", atleast we know what their acumen is.

I'll never pay those guys any mind again.

**Ming the Merciless** · 08-06-2015, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Easy 6

Stopped reading at "7.9 wins", atleast we know what their acumen is.

I'll never pay those guys any mind again.

Yah but I bet if we win exactly 7.9 games this season your tune will ****ing change asshole

Reerun_KC · 08-06-2015, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

Yah but I bet if we win exactly 7.9 games this season your tune will ****ing change asshole

Probably so. Would have to whip out the jergens and whack it like the pathetic fatty fans do.

8-8 and draft a RG would cause this fanbase to collectively orgasm at the same time.

Pathetic ****ers.

08-05-2015, 01:00 PM
frozenchief Veteran Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1611379	Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes: Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers. Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.
Posts: 3,900

08-06-2015, 04:59 PM	#201
Sweet Daddy Hate Unsparing Join Date: Aug 2008 Casino cash: $10004900	Alex Smith will have everyone on this board not named "Alex Smith Suck-off Poster" kicking puppies by week 8. __________________ 1. Merciless, severe. 2. Given freely and generously. 100% refusal to overrate 20 year Head Coaches with ZERO **ing rings as a Head Coach. CP's Official Professor of 'Dem Blues for 2019/2020!**
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08-06-2015, 06:55 PM	#204
Easy 6 pie is never free Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: the drivers seat Casino cash: $3717775	Stopped reading at "7.9 wins", atleast we know what their acumen is. I'll never pay those guys any mind again.
Posts: 91,717