Chiefs Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! - Page 7

frozenchief · 08-05-2015, 01:00 PM

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

okcchief · 08-05-2015, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Indy is going to straight cake walk into a first round bye.

Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee in your division. No Brady for 4 games in NE. I'd be pretty shocked if they weren't the top seed going away in the AFC.

**notorious** · 08-05-2015, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

Pull Indy in the 1st round finish 11-6

Exactly.

The middle of the season will put all of us into homer-overdrive only to have our false-hope fisted into oblivion.

BlackOp · 08-05-2015, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Indy is going to straight cake walk into a first round bye.

That division is toast...dont forget that AFC North has to play NFC West. There wont be 3 teams from that division again this year. That was another factor that played into KC missing the PO last season...the North played a historically bad NO/Carolina/Atlanta/Tampa clip...even Cleveland was in the WC hunt into the last quarter of the season.

okcchief · 08-05-2015, 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackOp

I know...I was talking about realistic QBs that KC could have drafted. These numbnuts always complain about Smith...but there hasn't been one QB drafted since Smith's arrival..that's been better than him. They just like crying at the moon..

It's true. The problem is it's better to take a shot at some point than grab SF veteran QB because that formula hasn't worked as well. The only time I can say we had a shot was Rodgers. I remember watching that draft with friends. I was in take a QB while you can camp. Most of my buddies we're like we need D and we can go to the ship. That is the plight of the Chiefs fan. You've lived with the quick fix for years so you crave trying it another way. I liked Rodgers potential at the time, but damn. Wouldn't that have been fun to cheer on for 15 years. It saddens me that I'm middle aged now and have never had "that guy" to root for. Send in the game manager please........

BlackOp · 08-05-2015, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by okcchief

It's true. The problem is it's better to take a shot at some point than grab SF veteran QB because that formula hasn't worked as well. The only time I can say we had a shot was Rodgers. I remember watching that draft with friends. I was in take a QB while you can camp. Most of my buddies we're like we need D and we can go to the ship. That is the plight of the Chiefs fan. You've lived with the quick fix for years so you crave trying it another way. I liked Rodgers potential at the time, but damn. Wouldn't that have been fun to cheer on for 15 years. It saddens me that I'm middle aged now and have never had "that guy" to root for. Send in the game manager please........

KC was close though...they needed defense as they were absolutely putrid. In retrospect..yeah..Rodgers...but they still landed DJ. They were in the SB hunt at that time...so I understand the pick. The Raiders selected Fabian Washington the pick before Rodgers..ha.

Mother****erJones · 08-05-2015, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ODESSABRONC

Not with schedule way their schedule is laid out.

Wut?

**Dave Lane** · 08-05-2015, 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by milkman

When a QB gets sacked 35 or more times in a season, a good portion of those sacks can usually be blamed on the QB.

No there is always about 5-8 reasons, at least for Alex.

**Mav** · 08-05-2015, 11:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

No there is always about 5-8 reasons, at least for Alex.

He creates sacks. Throw it away, run with it. Nope fetal position time now!

Quesadilla Joe · 08-06-2015, 12:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Blow the whole thing up? No.

Get rid of Alex Smith? Yes.

Alex Smith's contract is structured in a way that makes him basically uncuttable until 2017.

Tombstone RJ · 08-06-2015, 12:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Blow the whole thing up? No.

Get rid of Alex Smith? Yes.

good luck with that... he's your QB for another couple of years.

**007** · 08-06-2015, 12:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Valiant

Please. Cassel got what 15 tds to bowe in one year? Smith is supposedly better?

they misused bowe. Give hime jump routes. Bowe was never speed. Maclin will probably have his worst statistical season unless he gets targeted like gonzo. Smith does not do that though. I picked them to win 8 games.

Keep in mind that Bowe did not run good clean routes with Reids system. i still think Bowe was the problem not the system.

BlackOp · 08-06-2015, 12:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

good luck with that... he's your QB for another couple of years.

And Denver's QB after this 9-7 season is? Fox wasn't your problem..the problem is that the whole team's emotional well-being was contingent on Manning being in control. Whenever he tanked your entire team tanked..like in the SB. It was the same shit in Indy..

Mother****erJones · 08-06-2015, 07:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tombstone RJ

good luck with that... he's your QB for another couple of years.

I wish he wasn't but it's not Matt Cassel. So I can handle it while we look for a QB.

ViperVisor · 08-06-2015, 07:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs

Alex's sack rate has sucked shit 4 years in a row...but it's all on the line!

That's what I said. Because the group of dumbasses here can't think their way out of a paper bag. There is no nuance.

I didn't post...

Coaching has something to do with what happens.
49ers were dominating more often than not and played it safe.
Sack rate increased in 2nd half of games.
Harbaugh and co had a clunked up way of doing things. Funny how Kaepernick also got sacked a bunch in '13 and '14.
McNabb also was at the top of the charts for sacks over his time with Reid.

or

A good portion of any sack total is on a QB.

Smith appears to me over years of watching around avg at how often he is at fault for getting sacked.

You take a player like that and put him in the situations the last 4 years his sack rate will go up.
Mediocre Pass Protection
Mediocre Pass Catchers
Top 5 Defenses
Run the clock
Win the games

The post Bye in 2013 it was pretty good pass pro + having to push for more offense. Sack rate dropped to like 30 a season. Right around avg.

Things happen for a reason or many reasons.

OH WAIT
I did post that.

But tards here choose to ignore whatever doesn't fit the keep it simple for stupids. 'Alex Smith sucks herp derp I'm a true true fan not one of those deluded true fans.'

**Dave Lane** · 08-06-2015, 07:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guru

Keep in mind that Bowe did not run good clean routes with Reids system. i still think Bowe was the problem not the system.

Good trolling

08-05-2015, 01:00 PM
frozenchief Veteran Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1611379	Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes: Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers. Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.
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