Draft Position

[tiptap]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/print/3828/

Nice read with charts about what positions can you let slide and still get good players and what positions need dozens of choices to get just that right fellow in the draft.

[Mr. Kotter]

Nice read, tiptap.

Based on that article, we should be looking DT and DE in rounds one and two, and CB and S in round 3.

[cdcox]

My buddy and I did an analysis of franchise QBs a few weeks ago. The conclusion was that if you drafted a guy in the first round, you had about a 1/4 chance of him panning out in a major way.

[tiptap]

Originally Posted by cdcox

My buddy and I did an analysis of franchise QBs a few weeks ago. The conclusion was that if you drafted a guy in the first round, you had about a 1/4 chance of him panning out in a major way.

And this article supports that and goes on to indicate that the chance of success goes way down with lower round picks. That if you NEED a QB though you are going to need to take about 4 picks or trades or something to get that settled.

[tiptap]

Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter

Nice read, tiptap.

Based on that article, we should be looking DT and DE in rounds one and two, and CB and S in round 3.

Yeah that is my take too. We already have sign people to vie for the 2nd CB spot. We really need depth at the Dline so we can be OK if we have injuries. And better rotation at Dline and better play of passing downs (we were good against the run) from the line would see the CB problem easier to solve.

[Chiefnj]

bump

[BigChiefFan]

What say you, 1st round safety homers?

[jiveturkey]

Very cool.

It seems like the Chiefs have followed this line of thinking to a certain degree.

[ct]

Outstanding read!! Thanks!

[BigChiefFan]

Again, 1st round advocates for a safety, chime in...

[ct]

Originally Posted by BigChiefFan

Again, 1st round advocates for a safety, chime in...

I'm not necessarily one of them, although I'm cool with taking Jimmy Williams @20, if Lawson and the 2 DTs Ngata and Bunkley are gone. But consider this:

“Early Round Peak” includes only safeties and centers. In both cases the number of starters is at a peak after the first round (2nd round for safeties, 3rd for centers) and then reverts to a fairly normal distribution. The most likely explanation for this is that the top athletes usually get pushed to other positions in college and high school, so there just aren’t many that are talented enough to warrant first round consideration.


Look at Jimmy Williams and Michael Huff, the 2 top rated Safeties, and quite possibly, the only "Safeties" to be selected in the 1st round. Both were converted to CB, or vice versa, in college.

Jason Allen and Donte Whitner are also getting play as 1st round prospects, but could likely slip into the 2nd, where I would prefer to grab our Safety prospect. Hali (in a trade down) or Lawson, should he slip, are my #1,2 choices in the 1st.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by BigChiefFan

Again, 1st round advocates for a safety, chime in...

Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Roy Williams, Brian Dawkins (actually 2nd round, but the 31st pick overall, before the most recent expansion).

[BigChiefFan]

Originally Posted by SideWinder

Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Roy Williams, Brian Dawkins (actually 2nd round, but the 31st pick overall, before the most recent expansion).

I only count ONE playoff team there.

Again, safety is important, but I'm skeptical of us taking ANY safety in the 1st round if Huff and Williams are gone. The rest seem like a reach to me.

[ct]

Originally Posted by SideWinder

Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Roy Williams, Brian Dawkins (actually 2nd round, but the 31st pick overall, before the most recent expansion).

Originally Posted by BigChiefFan

I only count ONE playoff team there.

Again, safety is important, but I'm skeptical of us taking ANY safety in the 1st round if Huff and Williams are gone. The rest seem like a reach to me.

I don't think anybody disagrees with you there. The point is there are 1-2 stud safeties, that truly can impact your defense, but also good ones can be found in the 2nd. Beyond Huff/Williams, we're better off waiting, and I've not heard anyone advocating anything different around here.

EDIT: And by the way, sure there is only 1 playoff team amoung those player's teams mentioned...last year. Baltimore won a Super Bowl not too long ago with with a pretty nasty defense. And Phily made 3 straight conference championships in large part behind the strength of the defense. So you can't seriously just look at last year.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by BigChiefFan

I only count ONE playoff team there.

Again, safety is important, but I'm skeptical of us taking ANY safety in the 1st round if Huff and Williams are gone. The rest seem like a reach to me.

But how many good defenses do you count?

Originally Posted by coryt

I don't think anybody disagrees with you there. The point is there are 1-2 stud safeties, that truly can impact your defense, but also good ones can be found in the 2nd. Beyond Huff/Williams, we're better off waiting, and I've not heard anyone advocating anything different around here.

EDIT: And by the way, sure there is only 1 playoff team amoung those player's teams mentioned...last year. Baltimore won a Super Bowl not too long ago with with a pretty nasty defense. And Phily made 3 straight conference championships in large part behind the strength of the defense. So you can't seriously just look at last year.

Coryis right, we are not pimping any other first round safeties.