Is Herm really a lot more conservative than DV was?

PastorMikH · 09-14-2006, 02:57 PM

I have been hearing a lot in the media and by us fans (I have said so too) speculation that Herm wants to do away with the passing O and go to a conservative running O like we had when Marty was here.

After reading Whitlock's article today, I got to wondering what the difference really is. So I took a look at KC's O and the Jets O over the last 3 years (since that is as far back as NFL.com goes) and compared stats.

Here's what I found...

Over the 3 year span, the Chiefs passed 53% of the time and ran 47% of the time. The Jets (Under Herm) passed 54% of the time and ran 46% of the time. Herm actually ran 1% more pass plays than KC's pass-happy OC.

KC did average about 5.5 plays per game more than the Jets. KC has a good edge in total yards averaging 1480 more yards a season than the Jets did (about 92 yards a game). In breaking down the total yards into Passing/Rushing percentages, KC averaged 65%/35% while the Jets averaged 63%/37% respectively. There was a .5 YPC average difference in rushing yards and a 1 YPC diference in passing yards.

In scoring difference in the games won over the 3 years, the Jets averaged 9.4 points ahead of their opponents. The Chiefs averaged 14.6 points ahead of their opponents (but man the Chiefs really ran some scores up in those 3 years - they beat Atlanta in '04 by 46 points and Trent threw all but one pass). The Jets did have games in that span where they won by large numbers as well which shows that with the Jets, Herm didn't always get a small lead and sit on it.

In looking at Sunday's game, our Pass Plays percentage was at 58% - higher than with DV any of the 3 year averages. We ran 5 less plays than we averaged per game over the last 5 years. So, there wasn't all that much difference in the play-calling Sunday and what we are used to, but there was in execution and mistakes. Hopefully those will get ironed out soon.

All in all, after the research I did today, I think perhaps my concerns about Herm taking us back to "Martyball" may be a bit unfounded. If the O in KC continues in a similar manner as the O at the Jets did, there shouldn't be much of a difference in the emphasis of pass/run and so on.

So, once Green is back and IF we get the O-Line problems worked out, I'm thinking that our O may not be much different than what we've been used too. Add in the improvements Herm's made already with the D and I'm thinking if the O-Line gets straighened out and Green gets back, we possibly could be happier with what we have this year as opposed to the years under DV.

Chief Faithful · 09-14-2006, 03:02 PM

I have been asking myself the same question is he really as conservative as the media and Jets fans want us to believe? Remember, Jimmy Raye and Paul Hacket can make any HC look overly conservative.

jspchief · 09-14-2006, 03:09 PM

Interesting stats but I'm not sure they necessarily tell the entire story.

The run/pass ratio may be one indicator, but when he runs and/or passes would tell us more. he might be content passing the ball when driving, but clam up and lean heavily on the run when the team gets in the redzone/FG range... which would indicate significant conservatism.

Personally, I'll wait and see. Just because he did it one way in the past, that doesn't necessarily mean he'll do it that way now. We have no way of knowing how much of his past play calling was predicated on the personnel he had to work with.

**Easy 6** · 09-14-2006, 03:22 PM

PastorMikH, i've also done a bit of wavering between high concept/ score ball & thinking maybe switchin' up to a simpler more physical game w/ bigger WR's etc. would be best.It's a LOT easier to play wide open Coryell ball w/ a Roaf on our team. I always try my d**ndest to get behind any change of direction we make. So whether Herm rein's it in or not i would LIKE to believe that the vet's on the O can make whatever we do work.

PastorMikH · 09-14-2006, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jspchief

Interesting stats but I'm not sure they necessarily tell the entire story.

The run/pass ratio may be one indicator, but when he runs and/or passes would tell us more. he might be content passing the ball when driving, but clam up and lean heavily on the run when the team gets in the redzone/FG range... which would indicate significant conservatism.

Personally, I'll wait and see. Just because he did it one way in the past, that doesn't necessarily mean he'll do it that way now. We have no way of knowing how much of his past play calling was predicated on the personnel he had to work with.

True, there are a number of variables that are hard to account for by looking at a stat page. Like for instance, some of KC's passing/scoring stats have come from our terrible D giving up scores and KC needing to gain 40+ points to win.

All in all though, I don't think it's as gloomy and doomy as many of us thought.

StcChief · 09-14-2006, 03:57 PM

as JSP says....

It's really to early to tell.

PastorMikH · 09-14-2006, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StcChief

as JSP says....

It's really to early to tell.

True, but there are a good number of fans (and reporters) that have already decided the other way. Just wanted to point out some info that shows us it's too early to be negative as well.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 09-14-2006, 04:24 PM

You do realize that one of the reasons why Herm was passing a lot, particularly last year, was because his teams were getting their asses kicked and thus had to pass the entire second half. Furthermore, you can't call an offense aggressive if it passes 65 percent of the time, and the vast majority of those are dumpoffs, like in a west coast system. It requires further statistical analysis , but I think that a numerical uninformed (but football and people wise) analysis shows that Herm is conservative.

Look at what the Rams did with 3 minutes left in the Super Bowl in a tie game at the 20, they took a shot down the field for the whole thing and hit it. Look at what Herm did with 1st and 10 on the Pittsburgh 30 in the Playoffs, he ran it three times in the middle of the line setting up a 45 yard field goal in a stadium notorious for its wind currents.

isired · 09-14-2006, 04:30 PM

i think that even when the jets under herm passed, they generally went for shorter passes too. that was a frustration of santana moss (everyone here cried when he left and had a big year, but he would have never had that year in new york). there was a large amount of 6 yard passes on 3rd & 7, etc. there's no good way that i know of to lcompare that to KC, though.

hackett was/is definitely a conservative coach. so that wasn't all herm, but he definitely approved of that method. heimerdinger came in and instituted -zero- of his titans passing offense. one thing herm did in his time here, he bent the rules regarding bringing in a coach AND his system. he had no problem making cotrell run the cover 2, dinger, etc.

isired · 09-14-2006, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Look at what the Rams did with 3 minutes left in the Super Bowl in a tie game at the 20, they took a shot down the field for the whole thing and hit it. Look at what Herm did with 1st and 10 on the Pittsburgh 30 in the Playoffs, he ran it three times in the middle of the line setting up a 45 yard field goal in a stadium notorious for its wind currents.

correction, he ran it twice and then had chad take a knee on third, losing 2 yards..

JBucc · 09-14-2006, 04:49 PM

I don't care much if he's conservative or whatever. What I do care about is if he makes stupid decisions under pressure, such as the taking a knee to set up a field goal mentioned before. It really doesn't matter if you're a wide open guy or conservative if you crack under pressure. Look at Mike Martz in the Rams playoff game a couple years back. He got nervous and played for OT instead of letting Bulger try and win the game. Martz is about as wide open as the come. On the other hand in the Pats first SB, when even Madden said they should play for OT Belichick told some unkown Brady guy to go out there and win the game. I guess all I'm trying to say is I don't really care about run/pass ratios, just be smart and trust your guys and do what you do best. I think we run the ball best, especially now.

PastorMikH · 10-01-2006, 01:45 PM

Yeah, I was wrong. Herm's too conservative to run up the score.

mrbiggz · 10-01-2006, 07:16 PM

I think the actions he takes in critical situations dictates if he is conservative or not.

Most people would agree that although the game plan for the Denver game was excellent, he should have been more agressive in the final possetion in order for us to win to win the game. He was definetly playing not to lose

runnercyclist · 10-01-2006, 08:11 PM

**Rausch** · 10-01-2006, 08:17 PM

Did we not throw down the field today?...

09-14-2006, 02:57 PM
PastorMikH Will KC ever be better? Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Land of Red Dirt & Necks Casino cash: $9925087	Is Herm really a lot more conservative than DV was? I have been hearing a lot in the media and by us fans (I have said so too) speculation that Herm wants to do away with the passing O and go to a conservative running O like we had when Marty was here. After reading Whitlock's article today, I got to wondering what the difference really is. So I took a look at KC's O and the Jets O over the last 3 years (since that is as far back as NFL.com goes) and compared stats. Here's what I found... Over the 3 year span, the Chiefs passed 53% of the time and ran 47% of the time. The Jets (Under Herm) passed 54% of the time and ran 46% of the time. Herm actually ran 1% more pass plays than KC's pass-happy OC. KC did average about 5.5 plays per game more than the Jets. KC has a good edge in total yards averaging 1480 more yards a season than the Jets did (about 92 yards a game). In breaking down the total yards into Passing/Rushing percentages, KC averaged 65%/35% while the Jets averaged 63%/37% respectively. There was a .5 YPC average difference in rushing yards and a 1 YPC diference in passing yards. In scoring difference in the games won over the 3 years, the Jets averaged 9.4 points ahead of their opponents. The Chiefs averaged 14.6 points ahead of their opponents (but man the Chiefs really ran some scores up in those 3 years - they beat Atlanta in '04 by 46 points and Trent threw all but one pass). The Jets did have games in that span where they won by large numbers as well which shows that with the Jets, Herm didn't always get a small lead and sit on it. In looking at Sunday's game, our Pass Plays percentage was at 58% - higher than with DV any of the 3 year averages. We ran 5 less plays than we averaged per game over the last 5 years. So, there wasn't all that much difference in the play-calling Sunday and what we are used to, but there was in execution and mistakes. Hopefully those will get ironed out soon. All in all, after the research I did today, I think perhaps my concerns about Herm taking us back to "Martyball" may be a bit unfounded. If the O in KC continues in a similar manner as the O at the Jets did, there shouldn't be much of a difference in the emphasis of pass/run and so on. So, once Green is back and IF we get the O-Line problems worked out, I'm thinking that our O may not be much different than what we've been used too. Add in the improvements Herm's made already with the D and I'm thinking if the O-Line gets straighened out and Green gets back, we possibly could be happier with what we have this year as opposed to the years under DV.
Posts: 20,454

09-14-2006, 03:02 PM	#2
Chief Faithful Predicting Chiefs Victory Join Date: Sep 2001 Casino cash: $9966500	I have been asking myself the same question is he really as conservative as the media and Jets fans want us to believe? Remember, Jimmy Raye and Paul Hacket can make any HC look overly conservative.
Posts: 4,315

09-14-2006, 03:09 PM	#3
jspchief BAMF Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Your Face Casino cash: $9998710	Interesting stats but I'm not sure they necessarily tell the entire story. The run/pass ratio may be one indicator, but when he runs and/or passes would tell us more. he might be content passing the ball when driving, but clam up and lean heavily on the run when the team gets in the redzone/FG range... which would indicate significant conservatism. Personally, I'll wait and see. Just because he did it one way in the past, that doesn't necessarily mean he'll do it that way now. We have no way of knowing how much of his past play calling was predicated on the personnel he had to work with. __________________ Courage is not the absence of fear but rather the judgment that something is more important than fear. The brave may not live forever but the cautious do not live at all.
Posts: 27,207

09-14-2006, 03:22 PM	#4
Easy 6 pie is never free Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: the drivers seat Casino cash: $3567775	PastorMikH, i've also done a bit of wavering between high concept/ score ball & thinking maybe switchin' up to a simpler more physical game w/ bigger WR's etc. would be best.It's a LOT easier to play wide open Coryell ball w/ a Roaf on our team. I always try my d**ndest to get behind any change of direction we make. So whether Herm rein's it in or not i would LIKE to believe that the vet's on the O can make whatever we do work.
Posts: 91,845

09-14-2006, 03:57 PM	#6
StcChief Playing for #1 Draft Pick Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Just West of Lambs land Casino cash: $10004900	as JSP says.... It's really to early to tell. __________________ sig test for this screwy schema
Posts: 25,901

09-14-2006, 04:24 PM	#8
'Hamas' Jenkins Now you've pissed me off! Join Date: Jan 2006 Casino cash: $7989572	You do realize that one of the reasons why Herm was passing a lot, particularly last year, was because his teams were getting their asses kicked and thus had to pass the entire second half. Furthermore, you can't call an offense aggressive if it passes 65 percent of the time, and the vast majority of those are dumpoffs, like in a west coast system. It requires further statistical analysis , but I think that a numerical uninformed (but football and people wise) analysis shows that Herm is conservative. Look at what the Rams did with 3 minutes left in the Super Bowl in a tie game at the 20, they took a shot down the field for the whole thing and hit it. Look at what Herm did with 1st and 10 on the Pittsburgh 30 in the Playoffs, he ran it three times in the middle of the line setting up a 45 yard field goal in a stadium notorious for its wind currents. __________________ "When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”--Abraham Lincoln
Posts: 74,833

09-14-2006, 04:30 PM	#9
isired Starter Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: New York, NY Casino cash: $10004900	i think that even when the jets under herm passed, they generally went for shorter passes too. that was a frustration of santana moss (everyone here cried when he left and had a big year, but he would have never had that year in new york). there was a large amount of 6 yard passes on 3rd & 7, etc. there's no good way that i know of to lcompare that to KC, though. hackett was/is definitely a conservative coach. so that wasn't all herm, but he definitely approved of that method. heimerdinger came in and instituted -zero- of his titans passing offense. one thing herm did in his time here, he bent the rules regarding bringing in a coach AND his system. he had no problem making cotrell run the cover 2, dinger, etc. __________________ the hallmarks of a herm edwards team: pointing fingers (crowd forming under the bus) soft training camp = slow start poor clock management predictable offensive playcalling and the topper: high aspirations - an offensive series that ends with a punt is a success, says the man.
Posts: 31

09-14-2006, 04:49 PM	#11
JBucc MVP Join Date: Oct 2005 Casino cash: $10004952	I don't care much if he's conservative or whatever. What I do care about is if he makes stupid decisions under pressure, such as the taking a knee to set up a field goal mentioned before. It really doesn't matter if you're a wide open guy or conservative if you crack under pressure. Look at Mike Martz in the Rams playoff game a couple years back. He got nervous and played for OT instead of letting Bulger try and win the game. Martz is about as wide open as the come. On the other hand in the Pats first SB, when even Madden said they should play for OT Belichick told some unkown Brady guy to go out there and win the game. I guess all I'm trying to say is I don't really care about run/pass ratios, just be smart and trust your guys and do what you do best. I think we run the ball best, especially now.
Posts: 12,016

10-01-2006, 01:45 PM	#12
PastorMikH Will KC ever be better? Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Land of Red Dirt & Necks Casino cash: $9925087	Yeah, I was wrong. Herm's too conservative to run up the score. __________________
Posts: 20,454

10-01-2006, 07:16 PM	#13
mrbiggz Starter Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: i travel Casino cash: $3068333	I think the actions he takes in critical situations dictates if he is conservative or not. Most people would agree that although the game plan for the Denver game was excellent, he should have been more agressive in the final possetion in order for us to win to win the game. He was definetly playing not to lose
Posts: 186

10-01-2006, 08:11 PM	#14
runnercyclist Gone to Carolina Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: By lake Wylie in tega cay Casino cash: $10006038	no
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