Poop Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com

Buzzsaw · 11-04-2010, 01:32 PM

I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Code:

AFC West
Team	Rec	WEI DVOA	Mean Wins	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	DIV	BYE	WC	TOT	CHANGE
KC	5-2	29.2%	11.4	19.1%	24.9%	23.2%	25.5%	0.5%	1.0%	92.7%	44.0%	1.5%	94.2%	0.4%
SD	3-5	17.0%	8.0	0.0%	0.6%	1.4%	2.9%	1.8%	7.3%	4.9%	0.7%	9.1%	14.0%	4.0%
OAK	4-4	-9.1%	7.0	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	1.6%	2.3%	0.2%	1.9%	4.2%	2.3%
DEN	2-6	-24.2%	4.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	-0.3%

The table's a little messed up, here's a screen

Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team

* Reaching the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Super Bowl

Code:

 Conf App  Conf Win    SB Win
NYG	50.3%	30.6%	16.0%
KC	43.1%	23.6%	13.1%
NE	41.1%	22.1%	12.0%
PIT	36.6%	19.4%	10.4%
PHI	32.7%	18.8%	10.3%
ATL	46.0%	22.5%	9.6%
GB	30.7%	14.4%	6.5%
TEN	18.3%	8.8%	5.0%
IND	17.2%	7.8%	3.8%
NYJ	17.7%	8.0%	3.7%
NO	17.7%	7.2%	2.8%
BAL	14.2%	5.8%	2.6%
MIA	5.7%	2.4%	1.2%
TB	6.8%	2.0%	0.7%
SEA	6.6%	1.9%	0.6%
SD	2.7%	1.1%	0.5%
HOU	2.6%	1.0%	0.3%
SF	1.8%	0.5%	0.2%
WAS	1.7%	0.5%	0.2%
CHI	1.6%	0.5%	0.2%
STL	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
MIN	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
DET	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%
OAK	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
ARI	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
JAC	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
CLE	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
CIN	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

11-04-2010, 01:32 PM	Topic Starter
Buzzsaw Starter Join Date: May 2005 Casino cash: $10004900	Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC Compiled by Mike Harris The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion. Code: AFC West Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE KC 5-2 29.2% 11.4 19.1% 24.9% 23.2% 25.5% 0.5% 1.0% 92.7% 44.0% 1.5% 94.2% 0.4% SD 3-5 17.0% 8.0 0.0% 0.6% 1.4% 2.9% 1.8% 7.3% 4.9% 0.7% 9.1% 14.0% 4.0% OAK 4-4 -9.1% 7.0 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 1.6% 2.3% 0.2% 1.9% 4.2% 2.3% DEN 2-6 -24.2% 4.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.3% The table's a little messed up, here's a screen Playoff Scenarios This report lists the odds of each team * Reaching the Conference Championship Game * Winning the Conference Championship Game * Winning the Super Bowl Code: Conf App Conf Win SB Win NYG 50.3% 30.6% 16.0% KC 43.1% 23.6% 13.1% NE 41.1% 22.1% 12.0% PIT 36.6% 19.4% 10.4% PHI 32.7% 18.8% 10.3% ATL 46.0% 22.5% 9.6% GB 30.7% 14.4% 6.5% TEN 18.3% 8.8% 5.0% IND 17.2% 7.8% 3.8% NYJ 17.7% 8.0% 3.7% NO 17.7% 7.2% 2.8% BAL 14.2% 5.8% 2.6% MIA 5.7% 2.4% 1.2% TB 6.8% 2.0% 0.7% SEA 6.6% 1.9% 0.6% SD 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% HOU 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% SF 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% WAS 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% CHI 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% STL 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% MIN 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% DET 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% OAK 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ARI 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% JAC 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% CLE 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% CIN 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
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