Peyton vs. Perfection (Denver vs KC breakdown) MMQB

[Quesadilla Joe]

It's the Game Of The Year so far: the prolific Denver Broncos vs. the stingy Kansas City Chiefs. Can Peyton Manning and company hand K.C. its first loss?

http://mmqb.si.com/2013/11/14/denver...eyton-manning/


This AFC West showdown between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs is as good as it gets for football in November. No division rivals have ever squared off with fewer than two losses between them so late in the season. The Broncos (8-1) are scoring an obscene 41.2 points per game, by far the best in the NFL. The Chiefs (9-0) are giving up just 12.3 points per contest, also a league best. As Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton once taught us, something’s gotta give.

Broncos offense vs. Chiefs defense

1. Pressuring Peyton

A hot topic right now is Peyton Manning’s protection. It hasn’t been great in recent weeks, which is to be somewhat expected given that anchor Ryan Clady (IR) has been replaced by Chris Clark. The 28-year-old undrafted journeyman has given up a few critical blind-side hits, though he’s not the only culprit on this struggling line. Right tackle Orlando Franklin also has been caught flat-footed a few times. Manning, with precise pocket movement and rapid progression-read ability, is generally able to overcome shoddy protection. But two bum ankles—plus copious bumps and bruises on his 37-year-old-body—make eluding pressure a taller order these days.

The Chiefs know how to apply pressure. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston give defensive coordinator Bob Sutton the rare privilege of scheming with dynamic rushers from both edges. One of the two almost always faces one-on-one pass blocking. Both might see it frequently at the same time on Sunday night, as Manning prefers to go with a minimum five-man protection in order to have five eligible receivers at his disposal. (This is one reason why running back Knowshon Moreno catches so many short passes.)

Kansas City has been one of the most complex and successful blitzing teams in the NFL this season, particularly on 3rd-and-long when Sutton loves to play dime and send speedy corners and safeties after the quarterback. Though a sizeable chunk of Kansas City’s league-leading 36 sacks have come out of complex pressure packages, don’t expect Sutton to use a lot of them against the Broncos. Most defensive coordinators refrain from blitzing Manning. The Chargers had some success with it, but they only called for pressure in the second half after it became apparent that their defensive backs could not compete with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. Kansas City’s defensive backs can challenge those receivers.

2. The Man-to-Man Matchups

The closest any defense has come to slowing Denver was Indianapolis’s, when cornerbacks Vontae Davis, Greg Toler and Darius Butler stymied Manning’s receivers for most of the first three quarters in Week 7. (Injuries to Davis and Butler changed Indy’s fortunes down the stretch.) The Broncos know how to beat man coverage—they’ve mastered barely legal pick plays and intertwined crossing patterns—but they have yet to face a man-coverage defense as sturdy as the Chiefs’. At the same time, Kansas City hasn’t faced an offense with these types of weapons. The following individual matchups will likely determine the outcome of the game:

Outside: CBs Sean Smith and Marcus Cooper vs. WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker

Smith is lanky and physical, though he’s been a bit shaky as of late. (Receiver Stevie Johnson was right when he said that Smith’s 98-yard pick-six against Buffalo was “lucky.” Smith was in position to make that interception only because Johnson had juked him so far sideways off the line of scrimmage.) When Smith plays with discipline, he’s one of the best boundary defenders in the game. But if he gets antsy against double moves—something Thomas and Decker perform extremely well—he could wind up in trouble.

On the other side, Cooper, a seventh-round pick of the Niners this past spring, is a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate. He has an innate sense for playing both the ball and the receiver in isolated coverage against vertical routes on the outside. He also has good closing quickness when working back to the ball, especially for someone who is 6-2. For all of Cooper’s merits, don’t be surprised if Manning still tests him early. The young corner did get beat twice due to missteps in his press-jam technique in Kansas City’s last game.

Inside: CB Brandon Flowers vs. slot receiver Wes Welker

Since Week 5, Flowers, one of the NFL’s best boundary corners, has been playing the slot in nickel and dime. So far, the results have been stellar. Flowers is a surprisingly good blitzer, and more importantly, he knows how to apply his physicality in the wider spaces that come with playing inside. Most corners, even elite ones, can’t do that. We’ll find out on Sunday whether Flowers really is a slot aficionado. He’s yet to face an inside receiver of Welker’s caliber.

Inside: SS Eric Berry vs. TE Julius Thomas

Berry has transformed from a liability to an asset covering tight ends—though he hasn’t been severely tested except for when he controlled Jason Witten one-on-one in Week 2. The Broncos have the most dynamic tight end in the AFC not named Rob Gronkowski. And their system does a good job getting Thomas open by design.


3. Building Offense

Contrary to popular belief, the Broncos don’t do many complicated things offensively. Instead, they do many simple things really well. One is called “building offense,” meaning they use certain plays early in the game to set up other plays later in the game. Defenders think they’re spotting something familiar, but they’re actually being set up to be exploited. The good thing about being a man-based defense (like the Chiefs) is you’re a less susceptible to this sort of deception because coverage defenders don’t see the ball or route designs to begin with; their focus is solely on their man.

This doesn’t mean the Broncos won’t try to build offense. Instead of doing it with a combination of two or three different routes, they’ll do it on a more individualized basis. We saw a great example of this with Demaryius Thomas scoring two touchdowns at San Diego.





Kansas City’s cornerbacks must concentrate on getting stops, not interceptions. If they start cheating against Denver’s routes, they’ll get burned by a twist.


Chiefs offense vs. Broncos defense

There’s a perception that Denver’s defense is iffy, maybe even porous. That’s only because its two bad performances happened to coincide with the team’s two most-watched games: Week 5 at Dallas, and Week 7 at Indy. Take out those contests and this group is allowing a respectable 21.6 points per game.

The Chiefs lack the same offensive firepower that the Cowboys or Colts have. Their system hinges on Jamaal Charles being able to turn the outside corner in the ground game, and converting a few screens into first downs. Their passing game is limited, mainly because Alex Smith is committed to doing whatever it takes to not lose games. So far he’s been successful in this regard, but in order for the undefeated Chiefs to be genuine Super Bowl contenders, he at some point will have to actually make plays to win a game. This doesn’t mean making a gutsy play late in the fourth quarter; it means having the fortitude to consistently take advantage of big-play opportunities.

Smith is nowhere close to doing that right now. The TV camera angles that get beamed into living rooms across the country might show Smith not throwing interceptions. What those camera angles don’t show, however, is him missing wide-open receivers at the intermediate levels. They also don’t show him abandoning plays before receivers have finished their routes. We can see this, though, thanks to the All-22 film.






As this game probably will prove, Kansas City’s defense can’t keep holding opponents to under 20 points while also creating points of its own each week. Kansas City’s offense (i.e. Smith) will have to get sharper.

[FRCDFED]

Originally Posted by Tuckdaddy

I agree. I don't wanna hear anymore about this shit. He better start firing that ball toward wr's in the end zone or our nice season will be wasted.

In those bits of film not only do the WR have separation but are WIDE open. Those arent even risky passes. IMO those are blown reads or Smith's own lack of confidence in his abilities. Those are 10 yard windows to place the ball.

[Mile High Mania]

Yes, Alex... open it up on Sunday. You are the QB, you throw the ball. Make it happen.

[Red Dawg]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Yes, Alex... open it up on Sunday. You are the QB, you throw the ball. Make it happen.

Go away douche bag. Here is the problem you have. Manning is gimpy now and the season is far from over. If not this game then in another game he will get taken out and miss time. That will ruin your SB dreams as your team is completely dependent on him. At least ours is not so dependent on one side of the ball. We can still win with our defense and ground game. Manning will turn out to be a 40 million dollar waste of money. Getting there is not enough. Only champs matter in pro sports. If your not first then your last.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Tuckdaddy

Only champs matter in pro sports. If your you're not first then your you're last.

You do know that this argument makes us look worse than the broncos, right?

Also, I FYP. Check out this link: http://www.grammar-monster.com/easil...youre_your.htm

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Yes, Alex... open it up on Sunday. You are the QB, you throw the ball. Make it happen.

Manning's gonna throw his share of picks, too, bud. You also might want to keep the ball out of Montee Ball's hands. We'll force some fumbles if he gets it.

[Molitoth]

Originally Posted by Strongside

Anyone that watches the games in person has seen this all year. The no separation argument is total bullshit.

Look, I like what Alex has brought to the team...especially after where we were last year. But at the same time, the guy has got to take some shots. I think he'll do that this week because he knows he has to, but they have been there all season. In the Texans game, I lost count of how many times Bowe, Avery, McCluster, and even Jenkins were literally UNCOVERED over the top.

I agree, nice post.

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by Tuckdaddy

Go away douche bag. Here is the problem you have. Manning is gimpy now and the season is far from over. If not this game then in another game he will get taken out and miss time. That will ruin your SB dreams as your team is completely dependent on him. At least ours is not so dependent on one side of the ball. We can still win with our defense and ground game. Manning will turn out to be a 40 million dollar waste of money. Getting there is not enough. Only champs matter in pro sports. If your not first then your last.

So far this season, our success has been clearly dependent on our defense.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by SNR

Manning's gonna throw his share of picks, too, bud. You also might want to keep the ball out of Montee Ball's hands. We'll force some fumbles if he gets it.

Honestly, I don't trust any of our RBs - they all like to fumble. Moreno found his way to the doghouse because of fumbles. I've feared all year that they would begin to trust him more and more, and they are... So far, he hasn't screwed up and I have stated over and over again that he won't until it matters most.

That concerns me about this game. I'm fine with none of our RBs getting more than a dozen touches in a game. I'd like to see more from CJ Anderson quite honestly. Hillman better be non-existant, that guy really has butterfingers.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

So far this season, our success has been clearly dependent on our defense.

Shhh, much like Blutarski in Animal House ... let him go, he's on a roll.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Tuckdaddy

This makes Smith look like a scaredy cat. We will not win in Denver unless he pulls the trigger on longer throws. He must know this and coaches know it for sure. If they watch film all the time then why the hell is it not getting better? He must have zero confidence in his ability to get the ball there on target.

There's no question he's watching the rush.

That's why he's skittish, that's why he's abandoning routes. His eyes are on the wrong level - watching the line of scrimmage and working backwards from there.

His fortitude in the pocket right now worries the hell out of me. It's not that I think he's too scared to throw it 15 yards downfield, I think the line is in his head and he's not willing to stand in and wait for those throws to develop. He's essentially looking for the first opportunity to get that ball the hell out of his hands or scramble where he can at least see the guys that are trying to hit him.

Ultimately the shell-shock he seems to have developed over the first 6-8 weeks will be his undoing. He needs to quit that shit, stand in there and make the play.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

There's no question he's watching the rush.

That's why he's skittish, that's why he's abandoning routes. His eyes are on the wrong level - watching the line of scrimmage and working backwards from there.

His fortitude in the pocket right now worries the hell out of me. It's not that I think he's too scared to throw it 15 yards downfield, I think the line is in his head and he's not willing to stand in and wait for those throws to develop. He's essentially looking for the first opportunity to get that ball the hell out of his hands or scramble where he can at least see the guys that are trying to hit him.

Ultimately the shell-shock he seems to have developed over the first 6-8 weeks will be his undoing. He needs to quit that shit, stand in there and make the play.

Only problem with this... is that the same critiques have been tied to Alex Smith over the past couple of years.

I imagine the poor line play is in his head a bit... but this is also who he is.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by Guru

A pick play is a pick play. So what exactly is a barely legal pick play?

A complete illegal play the chiefs will see again and again-because the NFL wants manning to win- he brings a lot of cash into the business.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Only problem with this... is that the same critiques have been tied to Alex Smith over the past couple of years.

I imagine the poor line play is in his head a bit... but this is also who he is.

Oh there's some truth to that as well.

But the old saw used to be "look at how many sacks he takes, he holds onto the ball way too long!!!"

I don't see that at all. I see a guy that's constantly looking to get rid of the ball or get the hell out of the pocket. He's still always going to be someone that would prefer throw the short passes to the long ones, but he's not naturally gunshy; he used to be pretty confident back there in holding onto the football. When he's confident in the pocket, I think he'll make the easy passes downfield. Right now, he's scared back there so he's not even looking at the easy ones downfield; he bails way too soon on the routes and next thing you know he's on the run or has foolishly rolled out of the pocket to cut down half his field.

He used to be risk-averse; if the deep throw wasn't wide open, he's not going to make it. What I'm seeing now is someone that doesn't even get to risk averse, he's just playing scared. That was absolutely not a knock against him in SF.

[Red Dawg]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

So far this season, our success has been clearly dependent on our defense.

Our defense is bad ass and I said one man. We are not solely dependent on Smith the way they are on Manning is my point. We are not completely dependent on a passing game. JC, st and defense is how we have won so far. If we lost Smith for a few games we could still wini. If they lost Manning they would not.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Tuckdaddy

Our defense is bad ass and I said one man. We are not solely dependent on Smith the way they are on Manning is my point. We are not completely dependent on a passing game. JC, st and defense is how we have won so far. If we lost Smith for a few games we could still wini. If they lost Manning they would not.

if we lost charles we would not

[Molitoth]

Originally Posted by loochy

if we lost charles we would not

Depends. Maybe Alex would be forced to utilize his other weapons and stop relying on the RB checkdown so often.