Fantasy Baseball Trade Analysis

[AndChiefs]

I know we did something like this for football so I figured we may as well have a thread for it here as well. Does this seem as completely one-sided to you as it does to me?

Send James Shields, KC SP from SP to HARP
Send Brian Dozier, MIN 2B from UTIL to HARP

Receive Daniel Murphy, NYM 2B from HARP to Bench
Receive Jose Valverde, NYM RP from HARP to Bench

[cookster50]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

I've got 8 weeks to get into the top 4 of the league. I'm in 7th now. The treshhold for 4th place at the moment is 72-63-9, and I'm at 65-71-8.

I'm also losing to the guy in fourth place 3-6-6.

H2h you always take the bat then.

[duncan_idaho]

All right, people. Needs thoughts on this Keeper league deal. Auction league. $300 cap. 9 keepers/year. 24 active players (15 hitters, 9 pitchers). 5x5 roto.

I'm in 9th place (out of 14) after being hit pretty hard by injuries and having my pitching staff fall apart (Cain, Cobb, Shelby Miller, Justin Masterson are all rostered... ouch)

I give:

Troy Tulowitzki ($47 to keep next year), Trevor Rosenthal ($30 to keep), Manny Machado ($15 to keep), Tyson Ross ($5 to keep)

I get:

David Price ($28 to keep), Jean Segura ($13), Dustin Ackley ($7, but this is just a move that keeps my roster legal this year).

Reasoning:

I'm not making a move this year, so Tulo doesn't do me much good, and neither does Rosie. I would consider keeping Tulo for that price IF he weren't such an injury risk. Rosenthal has been good but not great, and I'm not winning this year anyway.

Machado is the one that hurts. I'm still a big believer in him, but I wanted Price badly. I now can keep Price and Chris Sale for a combined $40... each would go for $45 or more in the auction (Felix Hernandez went for $50, Verlander for $47 this year).

Here are the keepers this leaves me:

(LOCKS)
Price - 28
Sale - 12
Trout - 16
Harper - 13

(LIKELY)
Cody Allen - 4
Segura - 13

(POSSIBILITIES)
Allen Craig - 12
Oscar Taveras - 5
Dylan Bundy - 4 (hoping he gets at least a September call-up to work out of the pen, which would make him keep-eligible. He's moving through rehab schedule pretty quickly, and is one year and a few days removed from his TJ)
Noah Syndergaard - 5 (again, banking on big-time potential here and a call up)
Shelby Miller - 12 (has the potential to be a stud, but has been a big disappointment this year)
Marlon Byrd - 4
Ben Revere - 8 (pretty cheap for .280 BA, 40 SB and 80 R, at least in our league)
Nate Eovaldi - 4

Anyway, I figure this puts me into position to go into the auction next year with about $190-200 to spend (which is a ton). If Segura rebounds, I get a top 50 player at SS at an incredible price. Even if he doesn't, and I'm looking at a .250/10/80 R/40 RBI/30 SB player, that's a little below market value in our league (where he's still a top 150 player). I'm way ahead on value on SP compared to the rest of my team, have a cheap closer, a legit superstar in Trout, a should-be-star in Harper, and several other solid supporting players.

I also have Robby Cano at an un-keepable price ($44) sitting on the roster. I'll likely use him to upgrade a keeper spot or two, selling to a team in contention.

[Discuss Thrower]

I'd say the trade makes sense.

I always have the feeling any given Cardinals closer is just one step from being cast aside or hurt for whatever reason.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

I'd say the trade makes sense.

I always have the feeling any given Cardinals closer is just one step from being cast aside or hurt for whatever reason.

Yeah, it reloads my keepers a bit (Price at 28 is really a tremendous deal in this league) and sets me up to compete next year. Just have had horrific luck this year between injuries and regression. Second straight year on that.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Yeah, it reloads my keepers a bit (Price at 28 is really a tremendous deal in this league) and sets me up to compete next year. Just have had horrific luck this year between injuries and regression. Second straight year on that.

This is my first year in a big time money league.. I've clawed my way out of 10th to 6th...

What I hate about this league is the fact I have Greinke, Kershaw, Hudson, Buerhle, Garrett Richards, Santana, Gallardo, and Kazmir and I lose out on Ks, whip and era to teams with 4-5 closers, one or two legit starters and a bunch of guys that get picked up and dropped for each start.

And since my closers have been Soria, Balfour and Joe Smith I can't get saves so that's an automatic loss in that category too.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

This is my first year in a big time money league.. I've clawed my way out of 10th to 6th...

What I hate about this league is the fact I have Greinke, Kershaw, Hudson, Buerhle, Garrett Richards, Santana, Gallardo, and Kazmir and I lose out on Ks, whip and era to teams with 4-5 closers, one or two legit starters and a bunch of guys that get picked up and dropped for each start.

And since my closers have been Soria, Balfour and Joe Smith I can't get saves so that's an automatic loss in that category too.

What's the format?

It's a money league that allows streaming? Eff that.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

What's the format?

It's a money league that allows streaming? Eff that.

H2H categories. Runs, RBI, steals, Homers, slug, obp and Ks, Ws, Saves, quality starts, whip era.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

What's the format?

It's a money league that allows streaming? Eff that.

This week I'm playing #1 in the standings who has Ventura, Samardzija, Cishek, Rodney, Darvish, Melancon, Archer, J Zimmerman, Wainwright and Papelbon as his pitchers. So he only juggles maybe 3 pitchers a week as his last bench spot besides Wainwright is Roark out of DC.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

This week I'm playing #1 in the standings who has Ventura, Samardzija, Cishek, Rodney, Darvish, Melancon, Archer, J Zimmerman, Wainwright and Papelbon as his pitchers. So he only juggles maybe 3 pitchers a week as his last bench spot besides Wainwright is Roark out of DC.

Yeah. In a league like that which allows streaming you almost have to build a really dominant pitching staff and kill the streamers in ERA and WHIP (and in this case, quality starts probably, too, though sheer numbers can hurt you).

Streaming is really a garbage tactic and I think anyone who resorts to it is not a real fantasy baseball player.

In my pay league, we get one roster move a month. 24 active players (15 bats, 9 pitchers). 10 players in reserve. It really makes the league about your keepers, your draft day, and whether or not you have good luck during the season.

It's a lot more fun than seeing who can be first to the waiver wire.

[The Poz]

I was offered Strasburg and S. Castro for T. Rosenthal and F. Freeman

I have Tulo, so SS isn't a need for me. I could use the SP help but at the expense of a good 1B and closer?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by The Poz

I was offered Strasburg and S. Castro for T. Rosenthal and F. Freeman

I have Tulo, so SS isn't a need for me. I could use the SP help but at the expense of a good 1B and closer?

No. Unless it's a keeper league and you have a MI spot. And Castro is really cheap.

[The Poz]

Yeah, I rejected it. Strasburg has 2 wins in the past month while Freeman & Rosenthal have been quite productive.

[duncan_idaho]

With my pay league team still mired in the 8th/9th of 14 range, I have gone into full sale mode. Just moved Robby Cano and two waiver pickups ... return was Jose Fernandez, whom I can keep for $8 next year, $12 the year after, and so on.

Keeper list:

Trout - 16
Harper - 9
Taveras - 5
Segura - 17
Sale - 12
Price - 28
Fernandez - 8
Cody Allen - 4

TBD (Dylan Bundy for $4, Syndergaard for $5, Marlon Byrd for $4 among the options)

[Discuss Thrower]

Got offered Ortiz for Greinke.

[AndChiefs]

Trade that was just accepted in my keeper league...

Nolan Arenado for Elvis Andrus, Cody Allen, and Sonny Gray

What the...