Royals (New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository - Page 80

duncan_idaho · 08-15-2013, 08:13 AM

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

-King- · 09-23-2013, 01:04 PM

**** the Orioles. ****ing chokers.
Posted via Mobile Device

Archie F. Swin · 09-23-2013, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

FYI, Rays/Orioles about to start on MLB Network.

Go orioles?

CaliforniaChief · 09-23-2013, 01:05 PM

Still waiting for someone to come on here and say they're rooting for TB to make sure we finish ahead of them.

Indeed, go O's.

**alnorth** · 09-23-2013, 01:15 PM

Did quite a bit of work the last couple hours. I created a really basic Monte Carlo simulation and ran it a few hundred times, tabulating the results.

Here's the assumptions I used:

1) To make things simple, just ignore New York and Baltimore, and assume they won't make the playoffs.

2) Assume the following odds per game:

Cleveland defeats:

Chicago - 58.6%
Minnesota - 58.2%

Tampa Bay defeats:

Baltimore - 55.6%
New York - 60%
Toronto - 59%

Texas defeats:

Houston - 65.2%
Los Angeles - 52.9%

Kansas City defeats:

Seattle - 60.5%
Chicago - 62.8%

Along with running that through 500 times, I also ran a couple alternate scenarios a few times as well to see what the odds are for us if things go well today and down the road.

CaliforniaChief · 09-23-2013, 01:30 PM

Wow Al...that's intense. Still trying to understand it, honestly.

No score through 1. Archer's damned good.

**alnorth** · 09-23-2013, 01:30 PM

Summary of the above:

I think our chances are about 4.6%. If we win today and all our opponents lose their next game, then our chances are about 15.6%. If we win our next 6 games and go into the last game in Chicago with a 88-73 record, our chances are about 41.3%.

It is still possible to make it with 88 wins, and sometimes with 87. Our chances pretty much statistically go to zero with only 86 wins.

If we are not eliminated, then we are A LOT more likely to tie someone and have to play at least a 163rd game next Monday than we are to have sole possession of a wild card.

**gblowfish** · 09-23-2013, 01:32 PM

Baseball is such a math geek sport. I'm amused that somebody actually spent the time to figure out all the mathematics of this.

CaliforniaChief · 09-23-2013, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

Summary of the above:

I think our chances are about 4.6%. If we win today and all our opponents lose their next game, then our chances are about 15.6%. If we win our next 6 games and go into the last game in Chicago with a 88-73 record, our chances are about 41.3%.

It is still possible to make it with 88 wins, and sometimes with 87. Our chances pretty much statistically go to zero with only 86 wins.

If we are not eliminated, then we are A LOT more likely to tie someone and have to play at least a 163rd game next Monday than we are to have sole possession of a wild card.

Got it. Interesting.

**alnorth** · 09-23-2013, 01:36 PM

I also cheated a little bit. When figuring out KC's odds against their remaining opponents, I just ignored everything before August and assumed they would keep playing like they have been since August 1st.

**alnorth** · 09-23-2013, 01:40 PM

Couple surprises: I was surprised that we were eliminated that often even if we win out to 89. I figured at 89 wins we'd be in great shape. I was also surprised to see that we weren't necessarily cooked at 88 wins, and we even got there a few times at 87. (For 87 win playoff scenarios, at least 2 out of our 3 rivals obviously lost a whole lot of games)

CaliforniaChief · 09-23-2013, 01:45 PM

2 on, nobody out for TB in the 2nd.

CaliforniaChief · 09-23-2013, 01:46 PM

C'mon Chen!

CaliforniaChief · 09-23-2013, 01:47 PM

Machado blew that one. Instead of either tagging Myers and keeping runners on 1st/2nd or just immediately going to 2nd for a potential double play, Machado hesitated and just got the out at 2nd.

CaliforniaChief · 09-23-2013, 01:49 PM

And that mistake just cost the O's...and really us...a run. Sac fly makes it 1-0 Rays.

sedated · 09-23-2013, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

If we are not eliminated, then we are A LOT more likely to tie someone and have to play at least a 163rd game next Monday than we are to have sole possession of a wild card.

A 1-game playoff to earn a 1-game playoff? Wild, man.

08-15-2013, 08:13 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1580308	(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository New thread, this time with more burst. Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
Posts: 21,140

09-23-2013, 01:04 PM	#1186
-King- ▓▓▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▓▓ Join Date: Jan 2009 Casino cash: $2315743	** the Orioles. *ing chokers. Posted via Mobile Device*
Posts: 63,904

09-23-2013, 01:05 PM	#1188
CaliforniaChief #RIPAce Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $12372899	Still waiting for someone to come on here and say they're rooting for TB to make sure we finish ahead of them. Indeed, go O's.
Posts: 17,322

09-23-2013, 01:15 PM	#1189
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57166239	Did quite a bit of work the last couple hours. I created a really basic Monte Carlo simulation and ran it a few hundred times, tabulating the results. Here's the assumptions I used: 1) To make things simple, just ignore New York and Baltimore, and assume they won't make the playoffs. 2) Assume the following odds per game: Cleveland defeats: Chicago - 58.6% Minnesota - 58.2% Tampa Bay defeats: Baltimore - 55.6% New York - 60% Toronto - 59% Texas defeats: Houston - 65.2% Los Angeles - 52.9% Kansas City defeats: Seattle - 60.5% Chicago - 62.8% Along with running that through 500 times, I also ran a couple alternate scenarios a few times as well to see what the odds are for us if things go well today and down the road. __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 36,130

09-23-2013, 01:30 PM	#1190
CaliforniaChief #RIPAce Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $12372899	Wow Al...that's intense. Still trying to understand it, honestly. No score through 1. Archer's damned good.
Posts: 17,322

09-23-2013, 01:30 PM	#1191
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57166239	Summary of the above: I think our chances are about 4.6%. If we win today and all our opponents lose their next game, then our chances are about 15.6%. If we win our next 6 games and go into the last game in Chicago with a 88-73 record, our chances are about 41.3%. It is still possible to make it with 88 wins, and sometimes with 87. Our chances pretty much statistically go to zero with only 86 wins. If we are not eliminated, then we are A LOT more likely to tie someone and have to play at least a 163rd game next Monday than we are to have sole possession of a wild card. __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 36,130

09-23-2013, 01:32 PM	#1192
gblowfish Be Kind To Your Pets Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Glorious Independence, MO Casino cash: $17646178 VARSITY	Baseball is such a math geek sport. I'm amused that somebody actually spent the time to figure out all the mathematics of this.
Posts: 40,839

09-23-2013, 01:36 PM	#1194
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57166239	I also cheated a little bit. When figuring out KC's odds against their remaining opponents, I just ignored everything before August and assumed they would keep playing like they have been since August 1st. __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 36,130

09-23-2013, 01:40 PM	#1195
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57166239	Couple surprises: I was surprised that we were eliminated that often even if we win out to 89. I figured at 89 wins we'd be in great shape. I was also surprised to see that we weren't necessarily cooked at 88 wins, and we even got there a few times at 87. (For 87 win playoff scenarios, at least 2 out of our 3 rivals obviously lost a whole lot of games) __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 36,130

09-23-2013, 01:45 PM	#1196
CaliforniaChief #RIPAce Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $12372899	2 on, nobody out for TB in the 2nd.
Posts: 17,322

09-23-2013, 01:46 PM	#1197
CaliforniaChief #RIPAce Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $12372899	C'mon Chen!
Posts: 17,322

09-23-2013, 01:47 PM	#1198
CaliforniaChief #RIPAce Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $12372899	Machado blew that one. Instead of either tagging Myers and keeping runners on 1st/2nd or just immediately going to 2nd for a potential double play, Machado hesitated and just got the out at 2nd.
Posts: 17,322

09-23-2013, 01:49 PM	#1199
CaliforniaChief #RIPAce Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $12372899	And that mistake just cost the O's...and really us...a run. Sac fly makes it 1-0 Rays.
Posts: 17,322