Chiefs' offense: "one of the worst in the league, by nearly every measure"

[the Talking Can]

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/9...chiefs-offense

some numbers to chew on from arrowhead pride

The Chiefs are actually 12th in the league in PPG, at 23.7. But if you take away the 14 points the defense is directly responsible for, that number drops to 19 PPG, which would be tied for 23rd - with the Raiders. The Chiefs are relying on the defense to score points, which isn't good. Defensive scoring is random and shouldn't be part of the game plan. They didn't need Tamba Hali's pick-6 to beat the Jaguars, but they did need Eric Berry's against the Eagles.

They also are just not moving the ball; their 333 yds/gm is 21st in the league and their 4.9 yds/play ranks 25th. "Well Kyle," you may ask, " if the Chiefs offense is so bad, how are they undefeated this year?" That's an excellent question, thank you for asking. The answer is that the defense and special teams are much, much better than we thought.

The problem the Chiefs are having is getting to the Red Zone in the first place. They're 30th in yards per drive, with only Tampa Bay and Jacksonville behind them, and Cleveland directly in front of them (not good company to be in). This is a really, really bad offense. But here's the real kicker: the Chiefs' offense has the best starting field position in the NFL this year, and still can't score.

The Chiefs average 17 yards per drive better field position than their opponents (ok, ok, 16.95), the best mark in the NFL (2nd table). Only two other teams average more than 10 yards better starting field position than their opponents (New England and Chicago). The Chiefs' average starting line of scrimmage (LOS) is their own 36.97 yard line (best in the NFL), while their opponents average starting LOS is their own 20.02 yard line (also best in the NFL). What all of that means is the Chiefs's offense is handed consistently great starting field position and can't do anything with it, then they let the special teams pin opponents deep in their own territory. The defense bails out the offense by not letting opponents move the ball, giving the offense the ball back with great starting field position. Lather, rinse, repeat.

There's a nice breakdown of our defense against philly over there as well:
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/9/2...p-kelly-eagles

I have to reiterate and emphasize just how much the Chiefs played man to man -- like a ton of it. And they have the secondary to handle it, unlike most teams in the NFL. Specifically, they matched up Sean Smith on Cooper a lot on the outside. If this had been a prize fight, Cooper's corner would have thrown in the towel somewhere around the middle of the second quarter. Smith owned him right up until the end of the game when he started cramping up. Cooper just couldn't shake him, especially on those aforementioned deep routes Kelly had him running all game.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

Why can't it happen again in KC?

No one has said that it can't. Well, okay maybe someone trolling has, but for the most part the discussion has been about Alex Smith's *part* in the offensive struggles.

Not his sole responsibility for. Emphsis on that. Nobody is saying the offensive problems are his fault. There's absolutely no reason for the fan club rush in to his defense.

This is the gist of it: he's leading the league in ratio of passes that travel 10 yards or less beyond the LoS. There are purportedly (since it's difficult to see with broadcast TV camera angles...) receivers who are "NFL open" downfield, yet he's to date not even attempted to test any secondary deep. This may be contributing to the struggles on offense. He has faced pressure - because as we all know, the line has not been good - but he's also had plays where he's had time. And in the end he's playing this conservatively thus far despite his head coach's publicly stated desire this offseason to coach him into being a more aggressive QB.

As I said, there are several factors which are likely contributing to the offensive struggles. The offensive line is one. The injuries at tight end are one. The playcalling may even be one (although I, personally, think the issue is more one of execution than scheme).

And Alex Smith may be one.

This is not saying that Alex Smith sucks. This is not saying the team can't thrive with him behind center.

And I think we also all understand that this is a three game sample. But we can only judge the 2013 Chiefs offense based on what they've done on the field. That's all we have to go on at this point. Anything else would be conjecture and speculation.

Hopefully things begin to click and we can switch from discussing what hasn't worked to discussing what has.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

This is new information

Good to see you, Captain Obtuse.

[mcaj22]

how bad the o-line is, everyones favorite 'oooooooo' .gif is of Charles blowing up that shitty Eagles safety on a blitz but its actually telling how bad the o-line is because Charles lays out one guy and then right behind him there is another free guy coming in untouched.

that's two guys the o-line let passed unblocked because of complete breakdowns on their part and if we didnt have a guy as good as Charles to get at least one, Alex Smith would be dead by now.

the o-line is a dumpster fire

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

No one has said that it can't. Well, okay maybe someone trolling has, but for the most part the discussion has been about Alex Smith's *part* in the offensive struggles.

Not his sole responsibility for. Emphsis on that. Nobody is saying the offensive problems are his fault. There's absolutely no reason for the fan club rush in to his defense.

This is the gist of it: he's leading the league in ratio of passes that travel 10 yards or less beyond the LoS. There are purportedly (since it's difficult to see with broadcast TV camera angles...) receivers who are "NFL open" downfield, yet he's to date not even attempted to test any secondary deep. This may be contributing to the struggles on offense. He has faced pressure - because as we all know, the line has not been good - but he's also had plays where he's had time. And in the end he's playing this conservatively thus far despite his head coach's publicly stated desire this offseason to coach him into being a more aggressive QB.

As I said, there are several factors which are likely contributing to the offensive struggles. The offensive line is one. The injuries at tight end are one. The playcalling may even be one (although I, personally, think the issue is more one of execution than scheme).

And Alex Smith may be one.

This is not saying that Alex Smith sucks. This is not saying the team can't thrive with him behind center.

And I think we also all understand that this is a three game sample. But we can only judge the 2013 Chiefs offense based on what they've done on the field. That's all we have to go on at this point. Anything else would be conjecture and speculation.

Hopefully things begin to click and we can switch from discussing what hasn't worked to discussing what has.

Good post. That's a good summary of my feelings about it.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

There was plenty of good conversation yesterday about what makes up a good offense. Is it excitement and points? Or is there something to be said for efficiency?

I'm an Alex Smith skeptic. But as uncomfortable as game management may be, Smith has won an awful lot of games behind it, and somehow teams like the Sanchez-led Jets and recently the Russell Wilson led Seahawks are too. And yes, Smith did put the 49ers in a position to beat the Super Bowl champion Giants in the playoffs. So we can dismiss the wins and the playoff performance, but somehow... they're winning. And skeptics are closing down every single door to suggest that maybe there's something to it.

So I think it's a little one-sided to act like one side's being rational and the other is not. I hope the Chiefs find a new QB, but there's absolutely reason to think Smith can actually take this team deep into the playoffs.

As discussed last night, all of your examples of game managers playing well in the playoffs include a top 5 defense or a quarterback who stepped up his game in the playoffs. There's really nothing to argue there. I think maybe you're redefining 'game manager' a bit though, at least how it's used here. You've talked plenty about needing to put up points when needed, and for the most part you're talking about some pretty damn good "game managers".

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

As discussed last night, all of your examples of game managers playing well in the playoffs include a top 5 defense or a quarterback who stepped up his game in the playoffs. There's really nothing to argue there. I think maybe you're redefining 'game manager' a bit though, at least how it's used here. You've talked plenty about needing to put up points when needed, and for the most part you're talking about some pretty damn good "game managers".

That's a really good summary, yes. Like I said, Smith has to be elite in 4th quarters for this approach to work. Consistently. I don't think he can do it, but who really cares about talent limitations if he shows up when it matters? Because so far, he has shown that he is excellent at doing just enough to win games. Even if it's not pretty.

[KCTitus]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

...And I think we also all understand that this is a three game sample. But we can only judge the 2013 Chiefs offense based on what they've done on the field. That's all we have to go on at this point. Anything else would be conjecture and speculation.

Hopefully things begin to click and we can switch from discussing what hasn't worked to discussing what has.

And in that vain, I think one of the things that was different between last year and this year were a couple of big plays in the philly game -- Im thinking of the 3rd and 10+ conversions that were made to Avery to extend key drives late in the game. The 3rd and 15/17 to Avery set up the FG to extend the lead to two scores late. That *is* something that is different about this team from last year or many years past. Making key conversions at key times.

I think that's a good sign. Sure, one can call it luck and Philly's defense being so poor, but when it comes down to it the team had to execute and they did. I think those plays won the game for KC. There is no evidence that Matt Fudgestain would have been able to pull that off.

[Ace Gunner]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Jamaal Charles had damn near 2000 yards from scrimmage last year, with the worst QB situation in the league, and the OL is WORSE?

Get the **** out of here.

the Chiefs OL has been shit since 2007. duh.

whatever Jamaal has done has been on stretch plays around the defense using Albert & Bowe's blocks. He's had a few up the middle, but it has been rare.

In fact, many fans believe Jamaal is too small to run straight through a defense or get short ydg 1st downs & TD's in spite of the fact he has done those things when he gets blocking.

We're 3 games in, the blocking has been atrocious, yet Jamaal is avg 4.3 and on course for a 1,200 yd rushing year and 800yd receiving..... basically, another 2k from scrimmage season.

Yet the blocking absolutely blows and is hog tying the OC and the offense.

[CoMoChief]

Smith has almost no time to throw.

Our Oline sucks. How can you expect AS to drop back 7 steps if half of the Oline can't block? Hudson and Asamoah are getting pushed back into the pocket...great, now Smith has to move left or right into the pocket...so he decides to naturally move right because he's right handed. Welp, can't do that because Fisher got his ****ing ass kicked too. So now all of this being in a span of a couple or few seconds, AS is running for his life as he either scrambles to pick up a few yards with his legs on a broken play or he takes a sack.

Hey at least he's not throwing picks. When you have the best punter in the NFL that can pin teams back deep, it's MUCH better to take the loss of yardage and just punt (esp w/ this defense) than to throw a pick and give the ball to the other team w/ good field position. You put the defense in great positions to do it's job and let them get the ball back to you on offense so you can try again. That's the game we're playing right now...Herm Edwards has to be jacking off furiously to our style of play.

If our offense wants to get better 3 obvious things MUST happen.
- We need to hand the ball off to Charles more. At times the playcalling against PHI was ridiculous. He's the best player on this team, and one of the best in the NFL..you need to get the ball in his hands.
- Oline needs to block much better, particularly Eric Fisher.
- Give the ball to ****ing Jamaal Charles

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

That's a really good summary, yes. Like I said, Smith has to be elite in 4th quarters for this approach to work. Consistently. I don't think he can do it, but who really cares about talent limitations if he shows up when it matters? Because so far, he has shown that he is excellent at doing just enough to win games. Even if it's not pretty.

Sure, regardless of opinions no how you win in the playoffs or the easiest way to do so, etc; at the end of the post season, the 'how' doesn't matter. The only issue with it not being pretty so far isn't necessarily the ugliness, but what it might mean against the big boys.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Anyong Bluth

It's not a defense for the offense, but in the Dallas game alone Smith had 4 balls dropped by his receivers on 3rd down that would have been 1st down completions. You can spread the blame on offense around to everyone though. The line has struggled, they haven't gelled as a unit. Lack of a push and the ability to consistently rush between the tackles. Pass protection is shakey and inconsistent.

Smith's lack of vertical passing, and holding onto the ball too long sometimes. We can't seem to keep any of our TE's healthy- and that seems to be Smith's security blanket.

Oh I know. I totally agree with this.

I just find myself incredibly annoyed with the folks that think Alex Smith is some kind of quareterbacking god. I don't know why that group gets on my nerves and the haters don't, but that's the way it is.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by CoMoChief

Smith has almost no time to throw.

Our Oline sucks. How can you expect AS to drop back 7 steps if half of the Oline can't block? Hudson and Asamoah are getting pushed back into the pocket...great, now Smith has to move left or right into the pocket...so he decides to naturally move right because he's right handed. Welp, can't do that because Fisher got his ****ing ass kicked too. So now all of this being in a span of a couple or few seconds, AS is running for his life as he either scrambles to pick up a few yards with his legs on a broken play or he takes a sack.

Hey at least he's not throwing picks. When you have the best punter in the NFL that can pin teams back deep, it's MUCH better to take the loss of yardage and just punt (esp w/ this defense) than to throw a pick and give the ball to the other team w/ good field position. You put the defense in great positions to do it's job and let them get the ball back to you on offense so you can try again. That's the game we're playing right now...Herm Edwards has to be jacking off furiously to our style of play.

If our offense wants to get better 3 obvious things MUST happen.
- We need to hand the ball off to Charles more. At times the playcalling against PHI was ridiculous. He's the best player on this team, and one of the best in the NFL..you need to get the ball in his hands.
- Oline needs to block much better, particularly Eric Fisher.
- Give the ball to ****ing Jamaal Charles

Love this post. You rock!

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Sure, regardless of opinions no how you win in the playoffs or the easiest way to do so, etc; at the end of the post season, the 'how' doesn't matter. The only issue with it not being pretty so far isn't necessarily the ugliness, but what it might mean against the big boys.

I don't know why in week 4, people are so fixated about the playoffs, and stuck in this panic that a week 4 offense won't be far better by the time the playoffs arrive. Is this one of those "move the goal posts" things? People are stunned that KC is 3-0, and so now, their next strawman is "well, they'll get their ass kicked in the playoffs, so.."

One game at a time. If this offense is exactly where they are today (or worse) in December, then it would be time to worry. Not now, for ****'s sake.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by loochy

Oh I know. I totally agree with this.

I just find myself incredibly annoyed with the folks that think Alex Smith is some kind of quareterbacking god. I don't know why that group gets on my nerves and the haters don't, but that's the way it is.

another strawman... NO ONE thinks this here!

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by KCTitus

And in that vain, I think one of the things that was different between last year and this year were a couple of big plays in the philly game -- Im thinking of the 3rd and 10+ conversions that were made to Avery to extend key drives late in the game. The 3rd and 15/17 to Avery set up the FG to extend the lead to two scores late. That *is* something that is different about this team from last year or many years past. Making key conversions at key times.

I think that's a good sign. Sure, one can call it luck and Philly's defense being so poor, but when it comes down to it the team had to execute and they did. I think those plays won the game for KC. There is no evidence that Matt Fudgestain would have been able to pull that off.

What I'd like to hope is that Avery's game gives Smith some confidence in him, and we start seeing those throws earlier in the game.

The big difference about this team is that they appear to know how to win. And I don't think you can overestimate the value of that. For the better part of a decade the Chiefs have managed to lose games in about every way humanly possible. But this team has a blowout, a close win, and a near blowout that was much closer than it appeared (or should have been). Past Chiefs teams don't beat Dallas, in particular. They would lose that game late. Ditto for Philly. But not this team.

And that's with the offense performing poorly. And without I think all that much of a boost from the special teams aside from Colquitt's punting. I try not to think about what this team will look like if they put a game together where they're solid in all three phases. I can easily see a game this season where they have a ST score, a defensive score, and 3 offensive scores.

And I don't think we've seen the best of the defense yet, either. Interesting comment from Bob Glauber earlier when he was on with Soren Petro (Glauber is an NFL Insider from the NY Newsday for those who don't know): He believes this Chiefs defense is more talented (personnel wise) than any of Rex Ryan's units with the Jets.