2014 Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

With my 6,000th post on ChiefsPlanet (it only took me 12 years to get here), I bring you: The 2014 Kansas City Royals Repository.

To be discussed here: All things Royals, as they attempt to post another winning season and make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

25-man RosterAvailable HERE

AL Central Standings:

Link

Duncan's Top 20 Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1) 3B Hunter Dozier ETA: 2015
Dozier started slowly at A+ Wilmington but caught fire in May and June, earning a mid-season promotion to AA Northwest Arkansas. Big, strong kid with good plate discipline skills and solid power who projects to be an above-average glove at 3B with solid power.

2) SS Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi ETA: 2017
Mondesis is the opposite of Dozier…. Started red-hot at Wilmington before back spasms derailed him for a few weeks and hasn’t gotten it going since coming back. Scouting reports have been great – defense and speed both improved over the offseason. Still a chance to be an elite SS, with 40 SB speed, plus glove, .300 average and some pop.

3) LHP Sean Manaea | ETA: 2015
Scouting reports outperform the stat line so far. Missing a ton of bats at A+ but not preventing runs like you’d expect to see. Needs to work deeper into games (gradually working about an inning deeper/month so far this year) and improve control. Walks are biggest concern right now, but could be elevated due to work on extra off-speed offerings. Still has No. 2 starter potential, could be higher if the great control he exhibited before his hip surgery eventually comes back.

4) RHP Kyle Zimmer| ETA: 2015
Should be NO. 1 on the list and is probably the Royals most VALUABLE current prospect, but he hasn’t thrown a ball in 4-5 weeks and had only been throwing for 2-3 weeks when he was shut down then.

5) LHP Brandon Finnegan| ETA: 2015
Top 2014 draft choice is an undersized lefty who will start at A+ Wilmington after anchoring CWS run for TCU. Good fastball, better slider, change that needs work to stick as a starter, but if he sticks, No. 2/No. 3 starter upside. Likely a top 10 or even top 5 pick if he doesn’t miss 1 start in the middle of the college season as a precautionary move.

6) RHP Miguel Almonte| ETA: 2016
Have heard some say Almonte is more advanced as a pitcher at A+ than Yordano Ventura was (comparison because both were cheap signs out of Latin America). Really advanced changeup and a curve that is working out well (where the ‘more advanced’ comment comes from). Fastball velo is good but not great – 92-94. Like Manaea, working on his second-best offspeed pitch and leaning less on his bread-and butter (changeup), which has hurt his numbers a bit.

7) RHP Christian Binford 2017
Reverse case of “don’t just scout stat lines.” Based on his stats at A+, you’d think he was an elite prospect, but there are questions about Binford’s stuff playing up at higher levels. Tall righty with great command of fastball, slider and a good and still developing changeup. None of those pitches profiles as better than average, though, limiting his likely upside to back-end rotation guy.

8) SS Orlando Calixte| ETA: 2016
I still like him more than many. Good combination of SS/MI skills and power. Started hot at NWA but in a slump at moment.

9)LHP Foster Griffin | ETA: 2019
Tall, projectable lefty taken in 2014 draft. Viewed as a great value in the sandwich round and probably would have been KC’s pick at No. 17 if Finnegan hadn’t fallen. High school arm who is going to take a while to develop.

10) RF Jorge Bonifacio| ETA: 2016
Hasn’t hit as well as expected in his second go-round at AA NWA. Power still sapped, and average skills have dipped. Once looked like he might be an option in RF at some point in 2015, now looks like 2016 is optimistic. Still young for his level.

11) 3B/2B Cheslor Cuthbert| ETA: 2016
Cuthbert has had better luck at NWA than Boni and is also extremely young for level. HE’s been moved to 2B since Dozier was promoted, which could put a new spin on Cuthbert’s prospects. If he sticks at 2B, bat plays up much better. Good OBP/plate discipline and solid power, but needs to continue improving contact skills

12) C Chase Vallot| ETA: 2020
Young (just 17) C with tremendous power. One of the top prep bats and a great value for KC where it got him. If he sticks at C, expect him to move slowly, but the bat may force the issue (or force him to another position).

13) C Zane Evans| ETA: 2017
GA Tech product has handled Wilmington better than most RH bats and probably is in line for a promotion to NWA sometime soon. Decent pop, decent skills behind the plate. Could be a nice reserve catcher.

14) RHP Scott Blewett| ETA: 2020
Tall, projectable righty with a fresh arm but some injury concerns on his shoulder that slipped him out of Round 1 of MLB draft. Big time potential.

15) CF Bubba Starling | ETA:
Bubba Starling has great tools. Bubba Starling (still) can’t hit. That’s all I have to say about that.

16) 1B Samir Duenez| ETA:
I still like him, even though the attempt to run him through full season ball at 17 did not go well.

17)LF/RF Elier Hernandez| ETA:
Hernandez still pops up in scouting reports but still is very raw and toolsy.

18) RHP Pedro Fernandez| ETA:
Pop-up player on the same track as Ventura and Almonte. Similar signing, similar profile. One to watch over next few years.

19) SS Marten Gasparini| ETA:
Royals’ most expensive international signing likely moves to CF eventually, but his speed and athleticism are intriguing abilities. Early reports from complex ball are very positive on him.

20) RHP Niklas Stephenson| ETA:
Interesting pop-up candidate who found 10 more MPH on his fastball by using a weighted ball during workouts over the winter. Now sits mid-90s with fastball and is dominating at rookie ball (after having an ERA over 8 there a year ago). Likely promoted to a higher challenge soon.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DeepSouth

Bonifacio was designated for assignment last Saturday. With only four days left before something has to be done with him, I'm surprised we haven't heard any rumors about his future. Anyone have any ideas?

Dodgers and Yankees both make a lot of sense.

[lewdog]

We are way too excited for this season as this thread is moving wayyyyy to fast for me to keep up!

[chefsos]

Quick...Where's Globe Life Park?

Hint: Your ballclub (as well as mine) will be playing there sometime this season.

Spoiler!

The ****in' Rangers prostituted sold naming rights (again) to their ballpark. Ugh. I'm kind of weirdly proud that the Chiefs, Orioles, and Royals haven't...yet.

[DJJasonp]

so here's a question......if Glass were to say naming rights at the "K" would bring in an additional 10 million a year......and he, contractually, would have to add that to the payroll (thus, allowing extra room for let's say, Santana signing)......

Would you be ok with it?

(leave out the obvious that he COULD add the 10 million a year from other sources if he really wanted to)

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by DJJasonp

so here's a question......if Glass were to say naming rights at the "K" would bring in an additional 10 million a year......and he, contractually, would have to add that to the payroll (thus, allowing extra room for let's say, Santana signing)......

Would you be ok with it?

(leave out the obvious that he COULD add the 10 million a year from other sources if he really wanted to)

If I remember correctly, the extra revenue would only amount to 2-3 million per year.

[DJJasonp]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

If I remember correctly, the extra revenue would only amount to 2-3 million per year.

yeah, I figured as much.....all hypothetical, of course.

[SPATCH]

PECOTA has us finishing under .500. What gives?

[stonedstooge]

Originally Posted by the_spatula

PECOTA has us finishing under .500. What gives?

IT'S OUR TIME DAMMIT. My official motto for the year

[Simplicity]

Originally Posted by the_spatula

PECOTA has us finishing under .500. What gives?

No "media" or no one outside of the fan base believe in us.

[C3HIEF3S]

Originally Posted by the_spatula

PECOTA has us finishing under .500. What gives?

Our pitching staff behind Shields is mostly question marks.

[SPATCH]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

Our pitching staff behind Shields is mostly question marks.

Yeah, hopefully our defense makes up for some of that.

As was mentioned earlier in the thread, the projections don't take defense into account very well.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by DJJasonp

so here's a question......if Glass were to say naming rights at the "K" would bring in an additional 10 million a year......and he, contractually, would have to add that to the payroll (thus, allowing extra room for let's say, Santana signing)......

Would you be ok with it?

(leave out the obvious that he COULD add the 10 million a year from other sources if he really wanted to)

Since this is a fantasy scenario that has no basis in reality, I don't need to think about it.

Naming rights are worth a mere pittance even in large markets. Its not worth it.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by the_spatula

PECOTA has us finishing under .500. What gives?

Our defense last year was incredible, as measured by objective statistics. It contributed about 5-6 extra wins, so if we had a league average defense, we would have struggled to get over .500.

Projections (like PECOTA) can not project defense, so they basically assume everyone's defense is average and project batting and pitching. That is usually fine for most teams, but if you think your team's defense will be either horrid or elite, then the projections might be off.

Our defense had better be elite again in 2014, because even if our offense takes a big step forward like we hope, it won't matter if our defense regresses to merely average, because our starting pitchers won't blow teams away.

[clyde05]

Originally Posted by clyde05

We can't lose Hosmer. So we lose Hosmer and Shields in same year were back to a 60 win team.

My bad got wrong info, sorry.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Our defense last year was incredible, as measured by objective statistics. It contributed about 5-6 extra wins, so if we had a league average defense, we would have struggled to get over .500.

Projections (like PECOTA) can not project defense, so they basically assume everyone's defense is average and project batting and pitching. That is usually fine for most teams, but if you think your team's defense will be either horrid or elite, then the projections might be off.

Our defense had better be elite again in 2014, because even if our offense takes a big step forward like we hope, it won't matter if our defense regresses to merely average, because our starting pitchers won't blow teams away.

PECOTA (and other projection systems, but especially PECOTA) is also terrible at projecting young players' progression. Part of that is because young guys are so unpredictable. Another part of that is because most projection systems assume some regression as part of their formula. It may make sense mathematically, on paper, but it doesn't make a ton of sense to project a young hitter who has had some success to regress at ages 26-30. Not in real life.

A guy like Hosmer, who was very good as a rookie, bad as a sophomore, meh for two months and then awesome for 4 months in year 3, is very hard to project accurately.

PECOTA, for example, has Eric Hosmer projected at:
.276/17 HR/75 R/77 RBI/.334 OBP/.423 SLG

From June 1, 2013 - when he really seemed to have worked through his growing pains - Hosmer was: .318/.367/.494 with 16 HR and 63 RBI.

Human projection systems see Hosmer as more like .300/.350/.475 with 20-25 HR and 90-100 RBI.

Just one example of where PECOTA is inadequate.