AccuScore: Chiefs take big step; 49ers alive

[Bill Lundberg]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slu...yoffodds122110

AccuScore uses past performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, matchup, and game-situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability teams have of winning each game, winning their division, and making the playoffs. Here is the AccuScore.com analysis of the 2010 NFL season after Week 15. Visit AccuScore.com for weekly updates to the season forecast and all game forecasts.


AFC

The Chiefs got quarterback Matt Cassel(notes) back and got a dominating rushing performance this past week to put them in great position to take the AFC West title. The Chargers are heavy favorites in both of their remaining games and have over a 55 percent chance of closing with two wins, but they aren’t in the driver’s seat for the playoffs. With the Ravens and Jets both winning, the chances of an AFC West team getting a wild-card spot is unlikely. San Diego and Oakland both won on Sunday, but their playoff chances still dropped considerably because of the Chiefs’ win.

The Jets’ win in Pittsburgh was huge. With a likely first-round matchup against the inexperienced Chiefs, the Jets are probably better off in the No. 6 spot than the Ravens at No. 5. Baltimore will likely have to go to Indianapolis. The Steelers may have lost to the Jets, but they locked up a playoff spot and are still likely to win the AFC North by having a better division record than the Ravens.

The Colts regained control over the AFC South and are the 63.6 percent favorite to win the division. The Jaguars saw their chances drop over 20 percentage points by losing in Indianapolis. There is only a 35 percent chance that the Jags win out, and even if they do they cannot pass the Colts who have the tiebreaker.

WEEK 15 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 15 WK 16 % DIFF WIN DIV
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 54.4% 89.7% 35.3% 86.3%
NEW YORK JETS 75.3% 96.3% 20.9% 1.6%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 44.2% 63.6% 19.3% 63.6%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 97.3% 98.8% 1.5% 30.2%
TENNESSEE TITANS 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 1.1%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 99.8% 100.0% 0.2% 69.8%
BUFFALO BILLS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DENVER BRONCOS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 98.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS 0.3% 0.0% -0.3% 0.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 8.7% 2.0% -6.7% 2.0%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 58.6% 36.8% -21.8% 35.3%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 51.8% 11.8% -40.0% 11.8%
NFC

The Bears hammered the Vikings to win the NFC North, and the Packers saw their playoff chances plummet as a result. If Aaron Rodgers(notes) is healthy the Packers are a 58 percent favorite to beat the Giants in Week 16, so they still have a chance if they can beat Chicago in Week 17. The Saints and Giants may have both lost in Week 15, but they are still clear-cut favorites for the wild-card spots.

The three-team race for the NFC West is still alive. Amazingly, the 49ers have a 28 percent chance to win out and take the division. The Rams are actually winning less than 50 percent of Weeks 16 and 17 simulations, but they are still ultimately winning the division 43 percent of the time, which is more than the 49ers and Seahawks.

WEEK 15 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 15 WK 16 % DIFF WIN DIV
CHICAGO BEARS 61.7% 100.0% 38.3% 100.0%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 87.2% 99.9% 12.7% 99.2%
NEW YORK GIANTS 67.4% 79.4% 12.0% 0.8%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 16.2% 28.1% 11.9% 28.1%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 93.1% 97.4% 4.2% 7.9%
ATLANTA FALCONS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 92.1%
CAROLINA PANTHERS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DALLAS COWBOYS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DETROIT LIONS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0%
ST. LOUIS RAMS 47.2% 42.8% -4.4% 42.8%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 36.4% 29.1% -7.4% 29.1%
GREEN BAY PACKERS 53.7% 22.2% -31.6% 0.0%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 36.9% 1.1% -35.8% 0.0%

[Los Pollos Hermanos]

That article might as well be written in Spanish.

[notorious]

I must be and idiot, I don't understand why there are 4 percentage numbers for each team.


Nevermind



I have a 100% chance of being and idiot.

[WebGem]

This is what the table is.

[notorious]

It is criminal that St Louis still has a 42% chance with a record of 6-8. JFC

[JTagg7754]

It'll be a bittersweet victory in a couple weeks b/c I ****ing hate the Chargers so damn much and beating you guys will probably put them in the playoffs

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Bottom line is we have to win this Sunday and again next Sunday. Period!

[WebGem]

The Chiefs do not have an 86% chance to win their division, lol. That's absolutely reeruned, it's not even close to that high.

[JTagg7754]

Originally Posted by notorious

It is criminal that St Louis still has a 42% chance with a record of 6-8. JFC

Even worse that SF is still very much alive w/ a 5-9 record.

[Rams Fan]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

Even worse that SF is still very much alive w/ a 5-9 record.

Yep. But it will be 0% when the Rams beat the 49ers this week.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by ChiefsFan5840

The Chiefs do not have an 86% chance to win their division, lol. That's absolutely reeruned, it's not even close to that high.

Yeah, that's incredibly optimistic. I'd say 60%.

[WebGem]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Yeah, that's incredibly optimistic. I'd say 60%.

They're not being optimistic, they aren't Chiefs fans. It's probably that they're factoring in the Chargers road record and the fact they have 2 road games left, and vice versa with the Chiefs.

[Skyy God]

Originally Posted by ChiefsFan5840

The Chiefs do not have an 86% chance to win their division, lol. That's absolutely reeruned, it's not even close to that high.

Per simulating the next two weeks, that's absolutely the case. We should win out and, if we don't, it's because we let a lesser team play spoiler.

[WebGem]

Originally Posted by Pittsie

Per simulating the next two weeks, that's absolutely the case. We should win out and, if we don't, it's because we let a lesser team play spoiler.

I'm terribly sorry, but if you think we have anywhere near an 86% chance of finishing 2-0, you are completely wrong. I'd say we have at best a 70% chance of winning both games (.7 * .7 = .49 meaning 49% chance we win both) and that's being optimistic. Then there's the chance the Chargers lose a game, which isn't all that high, but it's possible. Trust me, we do not have an 86% chance of winning the division.

[notorious]

A lot can happen.


The probable scenario is that San Diego and the Chiefs each drop a game the next two weeks.