AccuScore: Chiefs take big step; 49ers alive

[Bill Lundberg]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slu...yoffodds122110

AccuScore uses past performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, matchup, and game-situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability teams have of winning each game, winning their division, and making the playoffs. Here is the AccuScore.com analysis of the 2010 NFL season after Week 15. Visit AccuScore.com for weekly updates to the season forecast and all game forecasts.


AFC

The Chiefs got quarterback Matt Cassel(notes) back and got a dominating rushing performance this past week to put them in great position to take the AFC West title. The Chargers are heavy favorites in both of their remaining games and have over a 55 percent chance of closing with two wins, but they aren’t in the driver’s seat for the playoffs. With the Ravens and Jets both winning, the chances of an AFC West team getting a wild-card spot is unlikely. San Diego and Oakland both won on Sunday, but their playoff chances still dropped considerably because of the Chiefs’ win.

The Jets’ win in Pittsburgh was huge. With a likely first-round matchup against the inexperienced Chiefs, the Jets are probably better off in the No. 6 spot than the Ravens at No. 5. Baltimore will likely have to go to Indianapolis. The Steelers may have lost to the Jets, but they locked up a playoff spot and are still likely to win the AFC North by having a better division record than the Ravens.

The Colts regained control over the AFC South and are the 63.6 percent favorite to win the division. The Jaguars saw their chances drop over 20 percentage points by losing in Indianapolis. There is only a 35 percent chance that the Jags win out, and even if they do they cannot pass the Colts who have the tiebreaker.

WEEK 15 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 15 WK 16 % DIFF WIN DIV
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 54.4% 89.7% 35.3% 86.3%
NEW YORK JETS 75.3% 96.3% 20.9% 1.6%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 44.2% 63.6% 19.3% 63.6%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 97.3% 98.8% 1.5% 30.2%
TENNESSEE TITANS 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 1.1%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 99.8% 100.0% 0.2% 69.8%
BUFFALO BILLS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DENVER BRONCOS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 98.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS 0.3% 0.0% -0.3% 0.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 8.7% 2.0% -6.7% 2.0%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 58.6% 36.8% -21.8% 35.3%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 51.8% 11.8% -40.0% 11.8%
NFC

The Bears hammered the Vikings to win the NFC North, and the Packers saw their playoff chances plummet as a result. If Aaron Rodgers(notes) is healthy the Packers are a 58 percent favorite to beat the Giants in Week 16, so they still have a chance if they can beat Chicago in Week 17. The Saints and Giants may have both lost in Week 15, but they are still clear-cut favorites for the wild-card spots.

The three-team race for the NFC West is still alive. Amazingly, the 49ers have a 28 percent chance to win out and take the division. The Rams are actually winning less than 50 percent of Weeks 16 and 17 simulations, but they are still ultimately winning the division 43 percent of the time, which is more than the 49ers and Seahawks.

WEEK 15 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 15 WK 16 % DIFF WIN DIV
CHICAGO BEARS 61.7% 100.0% 38.3% 100.0%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 87.2% 99.9% 12.7% 99.2%
NEW YORK GIANTS 67.4% 79.4% 12.0% 0.8%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 16.2% 28.1% 11.9% 28.1%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 93.1% 97.4% 4.2% 7.9%
ATLANTA FALCONS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 92.1%
CAROLINA PANTHERS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DALLAS COWBOYS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DETROIT LIONS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0%
ST. LOUIS RAMS 47.2% 42.8% -4.4% 42.8%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 36.4% 29.1% -7.4% 29.1%
GREEN BAY PACKERS 53.7% 22.2% -31.6% 0.0%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 36.9% 1.1% -35.8% 0.0%

[notorious]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

LOL how? B/c we played like absolute piss, in your place, and still won?? That logic makes no sense. If we're clicking on all cylinders, you're not beating us, period. We beat you guys in a race driving a ****ing hooptie haha. I'd be very worried about playing us at home where I think we're 5-2 this season. Losing to a Miami team that is close to flawless on the road and Houston who really isn't terrible.

You are not helping the Stereotype of s right now.


JFC

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

LOL how? B/c we played like absolute piss, in your place, and still won?? That logic makes no sense. If we're clicking on all cylinders, you're not beating us, period. We beat you guys in a race driving a ****ing hooptie haha. I'd be very worried about playing us at home where I think we're 5-2 this season. Losing to a Miami team that is close to flawless on the road and Houston who really isn't terrible.

Heh...short-term memory loss is creeping in, huh Al?

[JTagg7754]

And personally I don't care about making the playoffs. We're not ready to play w/ those teams. Sure it'd be pretty to have in writing but I'm not about moral victories. I want a good team before we try to compete w/ the big boys.

[Rams Fan]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

And personally I don't care about making the playoffs. We're not ready to play w/ those teams. Sure it'd be pretty to have in writing but I'm not about moral victories. I want a good team before we try to compete w/ the big boys.

You should be proud about the Raiders this year. I think they're about a draft away from being a playoff quality team.

[JTagg7754]

Originally Posted by notorious

You are not helping the Stereotype of s right now.

JFC

Originally Posted by DaFace

Heh...short-term memory loss is creeping in, huh Al?

Yeah, I had a brain fart. I shouldn't go out holiday drinking the night before I have to be at work at 9 in the morning. Stupid people that come into town and don't have shit to do tomorrow talking me into bad life decisions. I need a nap haha

[JTagg7754]

Originally Posted by Rams Fan

You should be proud about the Raiders this year. I think they're about a draft away from being a playoff quality team.

Oh I'm pumped about the turnaround except for one thing.... it means Jason Campbell will be around for a while. I hate his inconsistent ass. He'll play a good game or two and make you think he's got it then throw up shitters against some of the worst teams (take the Chiefs last year for instance when he got benched for Todd Collins) or the St Louis game this season (granted we didn't know the dramatic turnaround for you guys). Bruce had to save his ass that game

[notorious]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

Yeah, I had a brain fart. I shouldn't go out holiday drinking the night before I have to be at work at 9 in the morning. Stupid people that come into town and don't have shit to do tomorrow talking me into bad life decisions. I need a nap haha

Props for owning up.


You guys are a QB and OC away from being really scary.

[Rams Fan]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

Oh I'm pumped about the turnaround except for one thing.... it means Jason Campbell will be around for a while. I hate his inconsistent ass. He'll play a good game or two and make you think he's got it then throw up shitters against some of the worst teams (take the Chiefs last year for instance when he got benched for Todd Collins) or the St Louis game this season (granted we didn't know the dramatic turnaround for you guys). Bruce had to save his ass that game

That game made me pissed. A dumbass roughing the passer call. Maybe the Raiders draft a QB in the middle of the draft?

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

And personally I don't care about making the playoffs.

Then shut your whore mouth and go play farmaland or whatever the **** menstruating women do on sundays...

[JTagg7754]

Originally Posted by notorious

Props for owning up.


You guys are a QB and OC away from being really scary.

Originally Posted by Rams Fan

That game made me pissed. A dumbass roughing the passer call. Maybe the Raiders draft a QB in the middle of the draft?

You guys are on the right path. We'll probably have an opening also b/c I doubt Bruce get's signed again. Dude might be a decent QB (like a notch above Campbell) but he can't stay healthy to save his life.

I'm really liking the Devlin kid out of Delaware. Saw him play at PSU when he was a freshman and he's progressed nicely. Won't be too expensive either (pick wise) b/c of where he plays.

[Los Pollos Hermanos]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

It'll be a bittersweet victory in a couple weeks b/c I ****ing hate the Chargers so damn much and beating you guys will probably put them in the playoffs

But then the Raiders could be the first team to ever sweep their division and miss the playoffs. That's something to hang your hat on.

[Rams Fan]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

You guys are on the right path. We'll probably have an opening also b/c I doubt Bruce get's signed again. Dude might be a decent QB (like a notch above Campbell) but he can't stay healthy to save his life.

I'm really liking the Devlin kid out of Delaware. Saw him play at PSU when he was a freshman and he's progressed nicely. Won't be too expensive either (pick wise) b/c of where he plays.

How is Jacoby Ford? Any chance he becomes the Raiders #1?

[Hydrae]

Originally Posted by JTagg7754

And personally I don't care about making the playoffs. We're not ready to play w/ those teams. Sure it'd be pretty to have in writing but I'm not about moral victories. I want a good team before we try to compete w/ the big boys.

See, I look at it differently. I hope the Chiefs make the playoffs even though I know they will most likely be out the first round. But I want these young guys to have the experience of playing in the post season tournament so when they go back next year they are ready to take the next step and progress deep into the playoffs.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by ChiefsfansofDallas

But then the Raiders could be the first team to ever sweep their division and miss the playoffs. That's something to hang your hat on.

That also means we don't make the playoffs.

And the Raiders sweep us.

LOSE-LOSE situation.

[JTagg7754]

Originally Posted by ChiefsfansofDallas

But then the Raiders could be the first team to ever sweep their division and miss the playoffs. That's something to hang your hat on.

THAT is something I would be extremely pumped about. I can't think of the last time we could say that. I mean, the Raiders ended a SHITLOAD of streaks this season.

Just to name some:

- Consecutive losses to SD (was at 13 I think)
- Double digit losing seasons
- 11 loss seasons
- winning record in the division
- Possible overall winning record..

many more also. I have been pleased w/ them this year but they're still not legit. Not yet. Close though.

Originally Posted by Rams Fan

How is Jacoby Ford? Any chance he becomes the Raiders #1?

I love Ford. He has been one ****ing hell of a surprise. He is the reason we beat KC last time we played them. He single-handily took over that game especially when he burnt Flowers in OT (the guy everyone here said was better than Nnamdi......... very wrong).

He's never gonna be a number 1 guy though unfortunately. Raider fans keep whining about getting a WR first or spending big money of a Fitzy or something but I don't get it. We throw to our WRs maybe.... 8 times a game... all the WRs not just one of them. Why spend huge money on someone you're rarely gonna use b/c your offense is a run-based offense? We need a QB, RT, and OLB. If Seymour sticks around and we get some holes filled, I could see them being pretty dman good.