Can JaMarcus Russell Find Success? A Statistical Comparison Shows the Truth

[Over-Head]

The views and opinions are not mine, just a glimmer of hope.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/3...sletter#page/1

by Jay Dee Correspondent
At this moment in time there is more controversy surrounding JaMarcus Russell than any other player wearing Silver and Black.

Some of it is harsh criticism; some of it is blind devotion.

Those that criticize him are pointing to every aspect of his life: his game, his behavior, and his spending habits.

Those that blindly support him are primarily using his unrealized physical potential and the color of his skin to make their case.

I wrote an article called, "JaMarcus Russell: A Coach's Perspective" that focused on his mechanics and nothing more. I was fair and objective in my assessment and never mentioned his race, work ethic, or attitude, yet I was still branded a racist by his blind supporters.

Here's a novel idea!

Let's compare him to other players that have come before him and were just as highly touted. Not just black quarterbacks, not just first overall picks, but quarterbacks that were billed as their team's savior coming out of college just like Russell was.

This article will not use anything but statistics to relate Russell's success or failure to that of other players who came into the league under similar circumstances.

If you infer anything else, it's because you're looking for a fight. This article is NOT about race; it's about production. Nothing more.

I will be using three so-called "busts" and three players that went on to success.

So...how does Russell stack up against other "franchise" picks?


Rick Mirer
was drafted with the second overall pick by the Seattle Seahawks in 1993. He was billed as the second coming of Joe Montana.

The team was coming off a 2-14 season in which they started Stan Gelbaugh for eight games and Kelly Stouffer for seven. Neither of these men played very well at all, and the team needed a signal caller in the worst way.

In his first 16 starts, Mirer went 6-10. His stats weren't great, but his play was promising for a rookie. His completion percentage was 56.4 percent, and he had 12 TDs, 17 INTs, and 13 fumbles with a passer rating of 67.0.

In his first 16 starts, Russell went 5-11 and had a completion percentage of 53.9 percent with 15 TDs, 12 INTs, and 16 fumbles for a passer rating of 66.5.

Based on these statistics, Mirer was only slightly better than Russell, but better nonetheless.

Joey Harrington
was taken third overall by the Detroit Lions in the 2002 draft. The Lions were a pitiful team with a history of losing, and they felt that Harrington was their first step in the right direction.

They were wrong...very wrong!

Although Harrington played decently at times, he was never able to put together a winning record, and only once did he throw more touchdowns than interceptions in a season.

In his first 16 starts Joey earned a record of 4-12. He completed 52.9 percent of his passes for 3,091 yards, 18 TDs, 22 INTs, and a passer rating of 61.9.

The inflated yardage is due more to the fact that the Lions couldn't run the ball and were always playing from behind; thus Harrington had many more attempts than most QBs, including Russell.

Based upon these stats, I would give the edge to JaMarcus Russell overall by a comfortable margin

Akili Smith
came from the University of Oregon and was drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals with the third overall pick in the 1999 draft.

The Bengals were arguably the worst team in the NFL for the decade of the 1990s. High-priced free agent Neil O'Donnell wasn't performing as well as they had expected, and backup Jeff Blake was not even close to fulfilling his potential.

A history of bad draft day decisions had plagued this team. The likes of David Klingler and Ki-Jana Carter came to symbolize the futility of the Bengals' war room decisions.

Smith was supposed to be their redemption. He was a "can't miss" in their mind. So much for that theory!

In his first 16 starts, he threw for 2058 yards, five TDs, 12 INTs, and only completed 47.1 percent of his passes. He only managed a 3-12 record in that time. Those three wins would prove to be the only ones of Akili's career.

It's obvious that Russell wins this comparison.

Peyton Manning
was the first overall pick in the 1998 draft from the University of Tennessee. He was billed as the best quarterback to be drafted since Joe Montana.

That prediction is not that far off base, but how did he fare in his first 16 starts compared to JaMarcus Russell?

Manning led the Colts to a 3-13 record, throwing for 3,739 yards, 26 TDs, 28 INTs, and completing 56.7 percent of his passes for a passer rating of 72.1.

By comparison, Russell had a better win-loss record and threw more TDs than INTs, but he had fewer yards and a lower passer rating than Manning did.

Don't misunderstand; I would not suggest that Russell is a better player than Manning, [I]but he did win more games in his first 16 starts[/I]. Isn't winning the most important statistic by which to be judged?


Terry Bradshaw
Before the term "franchise quarterback" was coined, Bradshaw fit that title perfectly.

Drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers with the first overall pick in the 1970 draft, his career got off to a tumultuous start, to say the least. It was so bad, in fact, that there was talk of him getting traded or even cut.

The turmoil continued into his second and third seasons. He was benched several times in favor of Joe Gulliam. It wasn't until his sixth season that he actually threw more TDs than INTs. In all, only seven of his 14 years produced more TDs than INTs.

Bradshaw manged to turn things around and went on to a Hall of Fame career as the first quarterback to start and win four Super Bowl titles, with Joe Montana being the only other man that can say that.

In his first season he started just eight games. He threw for 1,410 yards, completing only 38.1 percent of his passes. The most startling thing is that he only threw for six TDs with a ridiculous 24 INTs. No wonder he couldn't stay in the starting lineup!

It is clear that JaMarcus Russell is off to a better start than this Hall of Famer!

John Elway
Quite probably the most hated man in Raider Nation!

Elway stirred up the league when he refused to play for the Colts after they drafted him first overall in the 1983 draft. He instead opted to play professional baseball in the New York Yankees organization.

After being traded to the Denver Broncos, Elway started 10 games in 1983, going 4-6. He threw for 1,663 yards, completing only 47.5 percent of his passes for a passer rating of 54.9 and throwing twice as many INTs (14) as TDs (seven).

Elway rebounded in subsequent years and went on to become a back-to-back Super Bowl champion and earned himself a spot in Canton. Judging by his first season, no one would have seen that coming.

Looking at his early career stats, it's obvious that Russell is ahead of Elway at that point of their careers.

So what does it all mean?

other than JR suckgoattoes for breakfast

What this means is that you can't judge a player's greatness or failure by what you see in the first few years of his career.

I've shown that Russell got beat in a direct comparison against a player that went on to do absolutely nothing but fill out a roster in Rick Mirer, but played much better than two Hall of Famers in Elway and Bradshaw.

I also proved that Peyton Manning didn't even win as many games as Russell did in his first 16 starts.

Put all this together, and I'm left with only one common thread.

Every player on this list established what kind of player he was destined to be by his third season. Those that went on to fail failed in their third years. Those that went on to succeed succeeded in their third years.

So, my advice to JaMarcus Russell would be this:

If you want to be a champion in this league and want to shut all your naysayers up, you'd better bring it strong this year. If you don't, you may never get another chance.