So what becomes of Trent Green?

[Deberg_1990]

If we bring in a new coach with a new offensive philosophy does that mean that Trent will leave? Hes never played in any other system but this one. Would he be as good in a different offensive system?? Something else to ponder over........

[JohnnyV13]

Originally Posted by Vlad Logicslav

I searched to find the stats on that and have not been able to come up with them.

Would this not just point out that our scoring off the passing game fell off since our running TDs were virtually identical all three years?

Vlad, we're getting into a rather complicated area of statistical analysis: systems modelling. Now, unfortunately, I have only some rudimentary education in this area, since I took a class in enviromental systems modelling as a molecular bio grad student (a degree I never finished).

Also, I have some training in experimental analysis, which is trying to discern what experimental results mean.

Now, the basic thing I'm talking about is that statistical models are, by nature, simplifications of dynamic systems. If they weren't simplificiations they'd be useless, b/c what you are doing is breaking down a dynamic system into simplier components to allow you to compare, and analyse, different situations.

What you are saying, that the overall rushing TDs indicate a similar rushing performance each of the last 3 seasons MAY be true. BUt, it also may NOT be.

Sometimes, in a complex system, a "bottom line" stat may say the same so that the system appears static, but beneath the surface there is actually quite a bit of change going on. This is because in a dynamic system the "outputs" can be affected by multiple factors.

You basically have taken the "static" position, while I'm taking the "change beneath the surface" position.

My contention is that in 04, offenses trended upward due to adjustments to rule changes, and league-wide that trend is pretty clear if you compare it to 03 and 05. Now, in application to the chiefs, this trend doesn't seem to hold true b/c points were virtually identical.

However, total yards and passing yards were up. I'm contending that Priest's injury in the 1st half of 04, "disguised the upward trend" b/c it made a less efficient offense score the same amount.

That 1st half vs. 2nd half rushing TD analysis seems to suggest that my analysis is a reasonable interpretation of the data. At the first half pace we'd have 36 rushing TDs, but in the second half of the season that dropped to 26 TDs per season (below the 03 production).

Now, when we look at 05, yards and points are down across the board for offenses. NO ONE scored 480 points in the NFL this season. Yardage is also down by about 20 yards per game.

Add in the Roaf injury, I think you account for most of the drop off in externals factor rather than a significant drop in Trent's performance.

But, this is all a murky situation. We don't have enough repetitions or controlled conditions to make a difinitive analysis. We're just looking at inadequate data trying to also use our experience in watching the actual games to analyse a data trend. This is murky business.

What this data means is actually a rather unclear matter of analysis.