Chiefs Mellinger: Chiefs’ biggest problem isn’t turnovers, it’s the QB - Page 8

dallaschiefsfan · 10-13-2012, 04:22 PM

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/10/13...#storylink=cpy

Posted on Sat, Oct. 13, 2012
Chiefs’ biggest problem isn’t turnovers, it’s the QB
By SAM MELLINGER
The Kansas City Star

The talk around the Chiefs is about turnovers. Gotta limit turnovers. Take care of the ball. Value the football. For all the talk about Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn and whether this hot mess of a season can be saved, so much of what’s been said and focused upon in team meeting rooms has been about limiting turnovers.

On the surface, it makes fine sense. The Chiefs outgained every opponent this season but have turned the ball over 19 times already. That’s a silly number, you know. It’s more than three teams had all of last season, and on pace for more than any team in the last 30 years.

Internally, the Chiefs seem to believe this is their biggest problem, that fixing the turnovers will stop the angry banners from flying over Arrowhead Stadium, and soften the criticism of general manager Scott Pioli, and redirect attention to what finally looks like a very good defense.

The thing is, that belief is just wrong. The much bigger problem is the quarterback, whether it’s Cassel or Quinn. The facts are overwhelming.

Think about this: teams with more yards of offense are winning 65 percent of the time this season, teams with more rushing yards are winning 68 percent of the time, and teams with fewer turnovers are winning 76 percent of the time.

Teams with the higher passer rating are winning 85 percent of the time.

Quarterback play trumps all, even turnovers, and it is past time the Chiefs join the 21st century. And to the point that Cassel is on the hook for 14 of the Chiefs’ turnovers, these issues are correlated, but it only matters if the Chiefs see it this way and drastically change their priorities.

Because they are swimming upstream, running a race with ankle weights, and competing in a beauty contest without makeup. They’re focused on the wrong things. This is the most frustrating kind of losing.

Even if the Chiefs fix what they think they’re doing wrong, they’ll still be doing it wrong.

In general terms, this is not new, of course. The need for an improved quarterback situation is a staple column topic here, and criticism of Pioli’s confidence in Cassel is now part of Kansas City’s DNA.

But as the evidence stacks up, the Chiefs should be forced into making major changes — regardless of who is in charge. Consider this a public service.

The purpose today isn’t to rehash old arguments, but to look at them from different perspectives. Like, for instance, Las Vegas oddsmakers. Sports books have proprietary quarterback rating systems that are among their biggest factors in setting lines.

Elite passers like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are worth as much as a touchdown — an enormous number in a league where only one game opened with a line bigger than five points this week.

Curious what happened when Cassel was officially ruled out this week in favor of Quinn, who has completed just 52 percent of his passes and hasn’t started a game in three years?

“No (line) move whatsoever on Cassel,” says Pat Morrow, head oddsmaker for Bovada.

In oversimplified terms, the Chiefs have focused on every position but quarterback, convinced that if the rest of the roster is strong enough they can win without a Hall of Fame passer. This is a bit like trying to start a fire with two sticks instead of a Zippo.

Even ignoring how horrendous Cassel was this year before his concussion, and that Quinn also isn’t good, the philosophy is so clearly outdated (at best) or delusional (at worst) that it has some fans rooting for losses so the team might be convinced to draft a quarterback.

The facts are overwhelming. The last game-managing quarterback to win a Super Bowl was Brad Johnson a decade ago, and in the last 25 years, every Super Bowl-winning quarterback but three (Johnson, Trent Dilfer and Mark Rypien) is either in the Hall of Fame or likely to be inducted.

The NFL’s emphasis on parity, particularly through the salary cap, makes it nearly impossible to be so good at other positions that a team can be merely OK at the most important spot.

But Ben Roethlisberger can compensate for a mediocre offensive line, Aaron Rodgers can make up for a weak running game, and Tom Brady can hide a bad defense.

Changes in how football is played — from rules favoring the offense to quarterbacks entering the league much better prepared than ever before — mean that “good” is no longer good enough. It used to be that quarterbacks needed to throw catchable balls. Now, they’re relied on for passes so accurate that the receivers maintain speed and extend plays after the catch.

When the Broncos traded Jay Cutler to the Bears a few years ago, Chicago ended up with the second-best record in the NFC and Denver ended up with the second pick in the draft. Various studies have shown that when elite quarterbacks face non-elite passers, they win about 80 percent of the time.

The Chiefs are essentially trying to make hay in that 20 percent. They are knowingly going into most games disadvantaged in something that league-wide numbers and Vegas experts with millions on the line say is even more critical than turnovers. They are doing this on purpose.

It’s incredible how much of the Chiefs’ mess could be cleaned up with a better quarterback situation.

The worst part is that the Chiefs seem to be the only team in the league that doesn’t see this. With the possible exception of the Jets — who reached two AFC championship games with Mark Sanchez — no team has gone nearly as long as the Chiefs without an honest effort to improve nearly as bad a quarterback situation.

The Chiefs are either smarter than every other team in the league, or spinning their wheels in thick mud, and at 1-4 with the NFL’s fifth-worst point differential, the evidence is stacking up fast.

It tells you plenty that Chiefs fans are relieved to see Quinn. Imagine if they actually had a promising quarterback. One that wasn’t given up on after 12 starts in Cleveland, who hasn’t been behind Ken Dorsey and Tim Tebow and Derek Anderson on the depth chart.

Instead, the Chiefs have put their fans in the awkward position of wondering whether it’s better the team continues to lose so that the organization may have more motivation and opportunity to fix its fundamental flaw.

This is what happens when a fan base is forced to wait for a team to recognize reality.

To reach Sam Mellinger, call 816-234-4365, send e-mail to smellinger@kcstar.com or follow twitter.com/mellinger. For previous columns, go to KansasCity.com.

© 2012 Kansas City Star and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved. http://www.kansascity.com

**SAUTO** · 10-13-2012, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

Routt was around 23 on the year and Carr was around 27 prior to the Baltimore game last time I asked him.

I think that was actually two Weeks ago.

He said em the other day.

I think he tried to use routt's number 69 and then wouldn't say carr's

I called him a little or whiny bitch and he said 48 iirc.

Search it. I can't on my phone
Posted via Mobile Device

FringeNC · 10-13-2012, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

This team ran the ball 42 times and passed it 18 against Jacksonville in 2010. Seriously, I am on an iPad and still found it in less than a minute.

We threw the ball 4 times or something in the first half last week. It was a so "over the top" indictment of Cassel by Daboll. Not saying we'll be Air Quinn, but we resemble an NFL team. (By the way, the Jax R-P ratio was also an indictment of Cassel. Haley hated the MF'er.)

htismaqe · 10-13-2012, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BossChief

Don't blame shift/throw insults and act like all I'm doing is playing a semantics game.

NFL teams don't gameplan the way we did against Baltimore unless they are totally trying to hide the quarterback and that was the point you refuted.

Shit, even the Baltimore players were saying it DURING THE GAME.

No that wasn't the point I refuted at all.

First, Fringe said he'd NEVER seen that kind of gameplay before. He obviously has or he hasn't been watching this team.

Second he said that Daboll did it it to spite Pioli's which is frankly laughable. I suppose Charlie Weis was flipping Pioli's the bird in 2010 too right?

I absolutely agree with you that this kind of gameplan is used to hide the quarterback. Of course, this is the first time you've said that in this thread.

htismaqe · 10-13-2012, 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DTLB58

Tell me the last time you heard an NFL official use the words "In the grasp" when they make the call?

They don't use that terminology any longer, it's either called the play dead or forward motion was stopped. The ref blew his whistle to supposedly protect the player, even though it has been stressed to them over the past few years to let the players play.

It's a coin flip, we could easily see a game this week where the same play is let played out. Hell, last year I was watching the exact same plays being called differently simultaneously thru Sunday ticket watching two different tv's.

I don't know that the refs have EVER used that terminology. But they call it EVERY WEEK and have for over 40 years. Sometimes they let them play, sometimes they don't. It's a judgement call but a bad call it was not.

htismaqe · 10-13-2012, 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FringeNC

We threw the ball 4 times or something in the first half last week. It was a so "over the top" indictment of Cassel by Daboll. Not saying we'll be Air Quinn, but we resemble an NFL team. (By the way, the Jax R-P ratio was also an indictment of Cassel. Haley hated the MF'er.)

Weis was the OC in 2010. Either Haley hated Cassel or Weis did. You can't have that both ways.

And of course it's an indictment of Cassel. Pretty much every game is. But that's not what you said. You said the gameplan was designed as a message to PIOLI'S, which is silly. The gameplan was designed to try and win, which isn't possible if Cassel has to throw the ball.

FAX · 10-13-2012, 09:01 PM

I would just like to say that Margot Kidder is, by far, the ugliest, scrawny-assed female ever born.

FAX

**J Diddy** · 10-13-2012, 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I don't know that the refs have EVER used that terminology. But they call it EVERY WEEK and have for over 40 years. Sometimes they let them play, sometimes they don't. It's a judgement call but a bad call it was not.

Let me introduce you to my definition of a bad call. If a call can very well go either way, but in this instance goes against my team it is a bad call. Had they adhered to my definition we would have won last week. This week I'm assuming they will and will thereby keep my phone line free.

**BigMeatballDave** · 10-13-2012, 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I don't know that the refs have EVER used that terminology. But they call it EVERY WEEK and have for over 40 years. Sometimes they let them play, sometimes they don't. It's a judgement call but a bad call it was not.

Years ago they did use the term 'in the grasp'.

I remember this because my dad used to say 'in the grass' LOL

It was mostly used in the 80s. Not sure why they quit.

**J Diddy** · 10-13-2012, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FAX

I would just like to say that Margot Kidder is, by far, the ugliest, scrawny-assed female ever born.

FAX

Christopher Reeve is so going to **** you up over that.

**J Diddy** · 10-13-2012, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave

Years ago they did use the term 'in the grasp'.

I remember this because my dad used to say 'in the grass' LOL

It was mostly used in the 80s. Not sure why they quit.

Because people were all "he's in the grass, hehe" and then take a bong hit.

**BossChief** · 10-13-2012, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

No that wasn't the point I refuted at all.

First, Fringe said he'd NEVER seen that kind of gameplay before. He obviously has or he hasn't been watching this team.

Second he said that Daboll did it it to spite Pioli's which is frankly laughable. I suppose Charlie Weis was flipping Pioli's the bird in 2010 too right?

I absolutely agree with you that this kind of gameplan is used to hide the quarterback. Of course, this is the first time you've said that in this thread.

They ran the gameplan because they were forced to start Cassel and that was all they could do to win.

You were giving him shit for "never having seen that gameplan before" by saying "ive seen that at least a half dozen times in the last 18 months" both comments were hyperbole and I was just the guy to point it out. shoot me.

How is only throwing it 6 times in the first half NOT a slap in the face of Piolis hand chosen and handcuffed to the starting spot QB?...same goes for the Jacksonville game from 2010.

Both games are shouting as loud as a coach can "THIS QB IS TOTALLY WORTHLESS" by actions instead of words.

Even the announcers were like "if you dont trust him, put someone else in"

Charlie Weis and Haley BOTH didn't like Cassel and that was part of those tweets that were from first hand knowledge of the situation.

NJChiefsFan · 10-13-2012, 10:11 PM

If there is ever proof of stats being misleading, the Chiefs offense is that proof. Numbers can not always be taken at face value.

Crush · 10-13-2012, 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FAX

I would just like to say that Margot Kidder is, by far, the ugliest, scrawny-assed female ever born.

FAX

She was the Mark Castle to Superman's Tom Brady.

**bevischief** · 10-13-2012, 10:44 PM

NO SHIT!

TEX · 10-14-2012, 12:21 AM

FIRE PIOLI.

10-13-2012, 04:22 PM
dallaschiefsfan Herm is the worst...horrible Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $4418850	Mellinger: Chiefs’ biggest problem isn’t turnovers, it’s the QB Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/10/13...#storylink=cpy Posted on Sat, Oct. 13, 2012 Chiefs’ biggest problem isn’t turnovers, it’s the QB By SAM MELLINGER The Kansas City Star The talk around the Chiefs is about turnovers. Gotta limit turnovers. Take care of the ball. Value the football. For all the talk about Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn and whether this hot mess of a season can be saved, so much of what’s been said and focused upon in team meeting rooms has been about limiting turnovers. On the surface, it makes fine sense. The Chiefs outgained every opponent this season but have turned the ball over 19 times already. That’s a silly number, you know. It’s more than three teams had all of last season, and on pace for more than any team in the last 30 years. Internally, the Chiefs seem to believe this is their biggest problem, that fixing the turnovers will stop the angry banners from flying over Arrowhead Stadium, and soften the criticism of general manager Scott Pioli, and redirect attention to what finally looks like a very good defense. The thing is, that belief is just wrong. The much bigger problem is the quarterback, whether it’s Cassel or Quinn. The facts are overwhelming. Think about this: teams with more yards of offense are winning 65 percent of the time this season, teams with more rushing yards are winning 68 percent of the time, and teams with fewer turnovers are winning 76 percent of the time. Teams with the higher passer rating are winning 85 percent of the time. Quarterback play trumps all, even turnovers, and it is past time the Chiefs join the 21st century. And to the point that Cassel is on the hook for 14 of the Chiefs’ turnovers, these issues are correlated, but it only matters if the Chiefs see it this way and drastically change their priorities. Because they are swimming upstream, running a race with ankle weights, and competing in a beauty contest without makeup. They’re focused on the wrong things. This is the most frustrating kind of losing. Even if the Chiefs fix what they think they’re doing wrong, they’ll still be doing it wrong. In general terms, this is not new, of course. The need for an improved quarterback situation is a staple column topic here, and criticism of Pioli’s confidence in Cassel is now part of Kansas City’s DNA. But as the evidence stacks up, the Chiefs should be forced into making major changes — regardless of who is in charge. Consider this a public service. The purpose today isn’t to rehash old arguments, but to look at them from different perspectives. Like, for instance, Las Vegas oddsmakers. Sports books have proprietary quarterback rating systems that are among their biggest factors in setting lines. Elite passers like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are worth as much as a touchdown — an enormous number in a league where only one game opened with a line bigger than five points this week. Curious what happened when Cassel was officially ruled out this week in favor of Quinn, who has completed just 52 percent of his passes and hasn’t started a game in three years? “No (line) move whatsoever on Cassel,” says Pat Morrow, head oddsmaker for Bovada. In oversimplified terms, the Chiefs have focused on every position but quarterback, convinced that if the rest of the roster is strong enough they can win without a Hall of Fame passer. This is a bit like trying to start a fire with two sticks instead of a Zippo. Even ignoring how horrendous Cassel was this year before his concussion, and that Quinn also isn’t good, the philosophy is so clearly outdated (at best) or delusional (at worst) that it has some fans rooting for losses so the team might be convinced to draft a quarterback. The facts are overwhelming. The last game-managing quarterback to win a Super Bowl was Brad Johnson a decade ago, and in the last 25 years, every Super Bowl-winning quarterback but three (Johnson, Trent Dilfer and Mark Rypien) is either in the Hall of Fame or likely to be inducted. The NFL’s emphasis on parity, particularly through the salary cap, makes it nearly impossible to be so good at other positions that a team can be merely OK at the most important spot. But Ben Roethlisberger can compensate for a mediocre offensive line, Aaron Rodgers can make up for a weak running game, and Tom Brady can hide a bad defense. Changes in how football is played — from rules favoring the offense to quarterbacks entering the league much better prepared than ever before — mean that “good” is no longer good enough. It used to be that quarterbacks needed to throw catchable balls. Now, they’re relied on for passes so accurate that the receivers maintain speed and extend plays after the catch. When the Broncos traded Jay Cutler to the Bears a few years ago, Chicago ended up with the second-best record in the NFC and Denver ended up with the second pick in the draft. Various studies have shown that when elite quarterbacks face non-elite passers, they win about 80 percent of the time. The Chiefs are essentially trying to make hay in that 20 percent. They are knowingly going into most games disadvantaged in something that league-wide numbers and Vegas experts with millions on the line say is even more critical than turnovers. They are doing this on purpose. It’s incredible how much of the Chiefs’ mess could be cleaned up with a better quarterback situation. The worst part is that the Chiefs seem to be the only team in the league that doesn’t see this. With the possible exception of the Jets — who reached two AFC championship games with Mark Sanchez — no team has gone nearly as long as the Chiefs without an honest effort to improve nearly as bad a quarterback situation. The Chiefs are either smarter than every other team in the league, or spinning their wheels in thick mud, and at 1-4 with the NFL’s fifth-worst point differential, the evidence is stacking up fast. It tells you plenty that Chiefs fans are relieved to see Quinn. Imagine if they actually had a promising quarterback. One that wasn’t given up on after 12 starts in Cleveland, who hasn’t been behind Ken Dorsey and Tim Tebow and Derek Anderson on the depth chart. Instead, the Chiefs have put their fans in the awkward position of wondering whether it’s better the team continues to lose so that the organization may have more motivation and opportunity to fix its fundamental flaw. This is what happens when a fan base is forced to wait for a team to recognize reality. To reach Sam Mellinger, call 816-234-4365, send e-mail to smellinger@kcstar.com or follow twitter.com/mellinger. For previous columns, go to KansasCity.com. © 2012 Kansas City Star and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved. http://www.kansascity.com
Posts: 2,012

10-13-2012, 09:01 PM	#111
FAX testing ... 1, 2, 3 Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Tennessee Casino cash: $6753759	I would just like to say that Margot Kidder is, by far, the ugliest, scrawny-assed female ever born. FAX
Posts: 44,492

10-13-2012, 10:11 PM	#117
NJChiefsFan I've Made a Huge Mistake Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: NJ Casino cash: $5760423	If there is ever proof of stats being misleading, the Chiefs offense is that proof. Numbers can not always be taken at face value.
Posts: 12,235

10-13-2012, 10:44 PM	#119
bevischief .... Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Somewhere Kansas Casino cash: $8659352 VARSITY	NO SHIT!
Posts: 27,731

10-14-2012, 12:21 AM	#120
TEX Out Gunning CP's Fandom Police Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Laguna Beach, CA Casino cash: $2363127	FIRE PIOLI. __________________ "The CHIEFS, HAVE THEIR DYNASTY!"
Posts: 34,684