NFL Draft History of Trade Value of #3 Pick

Amnorix · 04-13-2009, 07:18 AM

Patriots fans are lucky enough to have two truly superb amateur NFL observers -- AdamTJ and Miguel.

Miguel is a salary cap guru, and Adam is a general guru. Adam runs a blog, and recently posted the trade history of all NFL draft picks since 1992.

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/

What has teh #3 pick garnered in the past, you ask?

In 1997 the #3 and 63 picks got back the 11, 41, 70 and 100th pciks

In 2000 the 3 got back the 12, 24, 119 and 154.

Not sure just how useful it is in light of the fact that the economic value of the top 5 picks has become fairly prohibitive, and the "most recent" data goes back to when Clinton was still President....

keg in kc · 04-13-2009, 07:24 AM

If it happens, it'll probably be the least value to date.

**Skip Towne** · 04-13-2009, 07:34 AM

The #3 pick only has great value if it is owned by a team other than the Chiefs. If we have it, it is practically worthless.

keg in kc · 04-13-2009, 07:36 AM

It's only worthless because we happen to have our highest pick in decades in one of the worst top-10s of all time. Any other year and we should get the farm for it. But not this year.

Amnorix · 04-13-2009, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keg in kc

It's only worthless because we happen to have our highest pick in decades in one of the worst top-10s of all time. Any other year and we should get the farm for it. But not this year.

Not necessarily. The "value" of the top 5 picks is steadily degrading due to the economic consequences of drafting in that range. Any player picked in the top five is automatically going to be THE HIGHEST paid player in the NFL at his position, which is absolutely absurd. The "value" sucks.

LaChapelle · 04-13-2009, 08:29 AM

What you want to do, is pick the most imediate bust. That way you can clear him off the now cap rich books. A so-so pick will hang on your cap for years. Picking a bust this year is a breeze.

This year is a god send, it's really all how you look at it

Reerun_KC · 04-13-2009, 08:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skip Towne

The #3 pick only has great value if it is owned by a team other than the Chiefs. If we have it, it is practically worthless.

This....

SenselessChiefsFan · 04-13-2009, 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keg in kc

If it happens, it'll probably be the least value to date.

Well, the examples above are interesting. the first example the #3 overall pick was traded with a very high third round pick. This netted the team a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in return.

A good return on investment, but not a huge bounty of picks. Basically, the 1st was traded for a 1st and second, and the third was traded for a third and fourth.

In 2000, the team that wanted the third pick was the Redskins, so of course they overpaid. Even still, it was two firsts, a fourth and a fifth.

Last year, the Chiefs were offered the 10th overall pick, a 7th round pick and a first round pick in this year's draft for the #5 pick.

I think that Pioli would have taken that deal. I think that Pioli will be fine with taking a similar deal this year.

Will it be below market value according to the 'chart'? Probably, but it isn't about winning every deal on paper.... it is about doing everything you can to build the best possible team.

Micjones · 04-13-2009, 08:48 AM

I think the value of the pick won't match the Draft Value Chart, but I wouldn't just roll over to trade out of the #3 spot.

Has to net three picks.
Something like #12, #18, Fourth Round Pick

DTLB58 · 04-13-2009, 08:50 AM

Great info, thanks

All the pre-draft talk I have heard this year is Nobody wants to trade into the top 5.

According to these stats, a trade in the top 5 has happened 9 times since 1992 but not at all in the last 4 years.

I still think it's gonna happen this year. Somebody is going to panic and move up to grab Sanchez or Stafford.

LaChapelle · 04-13-2009, 08:53 AM

THe Jets are a bunch of reeruns, hope they have the ammo.

**Kyle DeLexus** · 04-13-2009, 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SensibleChiefsfan

Well, the examples above are interesting. the first example the #3 overall pick was traded with a very high third round pick. This netted the team a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in return.

A good return on investment, but not a huge bounty of picks. Basically, the 1st was traded for a 1st and second, and the third was traded for a third and fourth.

In 2000, the team that wanted the third pick was the Redskins, so of course they overpaid. Even still, it was two firsts, a fourth and a fifth.

Last year, the Chiefs were offered the 10th overall pick, a 7th round pick and a first round pick in this year's draft for the #5 pick.

I think that Pioli would have taken that deal. I think that Pioli will be fine with taking a similar deal this year.

Will it be below market value according to the 'chart'? Probably, but it isn't about winning every deal on paper.... it is about doing everything you can to build the best possible team.

Man, that would have been nice having an extra first this year.

**Rausch** · 04-13-2009, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Any player picked in the top five is automatically going to be THE HIGHEST paid player in the NFL at his position, which is absolutely absurd. The "value" sucks.

Even more so this year...

ChiefsCountry · 04-13-2009, 02:08 PM

It only sucks bc we have our LT and backed ourselves into a corner by trading for Cassel.

Mecca · 04-13-2009, 03:12 PM

The thing about them automatically being a top 5 paid player is why you take a player at a position that warrants the contract.

04-13-2009, 07:18 AM
Amnorix In BB I trust Join Date: May 2003 Location: Boston, Mass. Casino cash: $10029808	History of Trade Value of #3 Pick Patriots fans are lucky enough to have two truly superb amateur NFL observers -- AdamTJ and Miguel. Miguel is a salary cap guru, and Adam is a general guru. Adam runs a blog, and recently posted the trade history of all NFL draft picks since 1992. http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/ What has teh #3 pick garnered in the past, you ask? In 1997 the #3 and 63 picks got back the 11, 41, 70 and 100th pciks In 2000 the 3 got back the 12, 24, 119 and 154. Not sure just how useful it is in light of the fact that the economic value of the top 5 picks has become fairly prohibitive, and the "most recent" data goes back to when Clinton was still President....
Posts: 43,125

04-13-2009, 07:24 AM	#2
keg in kc oxymoron Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: OP/KC/Whatever Casino cash: $9556299	If it happens, it'll probably be the least value to date.
Posts: 58,682

04-13-2009, 07:36 AM	#4
keg in kc oxymoron Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: OP/KC/Whatever Casino cash: $9556299	It's only worthless because we happen to have our highest pick in decades in one of the worst top-10s of all time. Any other year and we should get the farm for it. But not this year.
Posts: 58,682

04-13-2009, 08:29 AM	#6
LaChapelle Banned Join Date: Mar 2009 Casino cash: $10004900	What you want to do, is pick the most imediate bust. That way you can clear him off the now cap rich books. A so-so pick will hang on your cap for years. Picking a bust this year is a breeze. This year is a god send, it's really all how you look at it
Posts: 8,588

04-13-2009, 08:48 AM	#9
Micjones Whose house? Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: KCMO Casino cash: $10005180	I think the value of the pick won't match the Draft Value Chart, but I wouldn't just roll over to trade out of the #3 spot. Has to net three picks. Something like #12, #18, Fourth Round Pick __________________ It's like when I'm right I'm right, when I'm wrong I could been right, so I'm still right cause I coulda been wrong.
Posts: 15,344

04-13-2009, 07:34 AM	#3
Skip Towne Supporter Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: T-Town Casino cash: $10004900	The #3 pick only has great value if it is owned by a team other than the Chiefs. If we have it, it is practically worthless.
Posts: 69,689

04-13-2009, 08:50 AM	#10
DTLB58 DT CARD COLLECTOR Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: ManCave Casino cash: $10005837	Great info, thanks All the pre-draft talk I have heard this year is Nobody wants to trade into the top 5. According to these stats, a trade in the top 5 has happened 9 times since 1992 but not at all in the last 4 years. I still think it's gonna happen this year. Somebody is going to panic and move up to grab Sanchez or Stafford. __________________ 667 Different DT cards and counting
Posts: 7,574

04-13-2009, 08:53 AM	#11
LaChapelle Banned Join Date: Mar 2009 Casino cash: $10004900	THe Jets are a bunch of reeruns, hope they have the ammo.
Posts: 8,588

04-13-2009, 02:08 PM	#14
ChiefsCountry The Insider Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Lake of the Ozarks Casino cash: $2198752	It only sucks bc we have our LT and backed ourselves into a corner by trading for Cassel.
Posts: 49,690

04-13-2009, 03:12 PM	#15
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $2497050	The thing about them automatically being a top 5 paid player is why you take a player at a position that warrants the contract.
Posts: 111,016