Alex Smith Traded to Chiefs

[Deberg_1990]

Well, it looks like the deal is done.



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Jay Glazer @JayGlazer
49ers have completed a trade with the Chiefs for Alex Smith, tho can't be official til March 12. Chiefs really made a commitment to Smith


Jay Glazer @JayGlazer
Deal has been agreed upon between Chiefs and 49ers. Compensation unclear but I'm told again Chiefs have made a clear commitment to Smith.

[Red Dawg]

Originally Posted by BossChief

Us trading for Alex Smith is just as bad as the Browns taking Weeden in the first.

Shut the hell up. Not even close.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by Tuckdaddy

Shut the hell up. Not even close.

How isn't it?

We actually spent more for an older, injury prone game manager.

[Mav]

Originally Posted by BossChief

How isn't it?

We actually spent more for an older, injury prone game manager.

Alex Smith is younger than Brandon Weeden fyi.

[Darien25]

I had a long conversation with John L. Smith a few days ago and he thought that
Chiefs fans would generally be happy with Alex Smith. I wanted to tell him otherwise
but we were having such a good day that I did not want to spoil it.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Darien25

I had a long conversation with John L. Smith a few days ago and he thought that
Chiefs fans would generally be happy with Alex Smith. I wanted to tell him otherwise
but we were having such a good day that I did not want to spoil it.

Did he ask you for money?

[TheOtherRedTeam]

Originally Posted by Alex Smith Fan

well, let me see.

27 games when you factor in the playoffs, all under the 2011 nfl coach of the year, with a 20-6-1 record, or the 5 years under guys like, mike nolan, jeff hostler, mike martz, jimmy ray, mike johnson, and mike singletary. None if i am not mistaken that are still in the nfl. You tell me.

Mike Nolan - Defensive coordinator for the Falcons.

Jim Hostler - Just won a Super Bowl as part of the Ravens staff
http://www.baltimoreravens.com/team/...a-005cb923522d

Martz retired from the NFL correct.

Jimmy Raye is an assistant coach with the Bucs
http://www.buccaneers.com/team/coach...0-fa991a211f65

Mike Johnson was only an OC for 1/2 a season, yet, Alex actually threw 18 TDs with Johnson as OC, so not sure why you'd throw him under the bus. But you are technically correct, as he became the OC then interim HC for UCLA.

Mike Singletary - LB and assistant coach with the Vikings.

You got 2 out 6 right!

[Darien25]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Did he ask you for money?

Yeah, I'm not sure what to think about the guy. He's recruiting my son to play
football at this small college in Durango. Last year Arkansas and this year Ft. Lewis College. He doesn't seem to stay anywhere very long.

[Mav]

Originally Posted by TheOtherRedTeam

Mike Nolan - Defensive coordinator for the Falcons.

Jim Hostler - Just won a Super Bowl as part of the Ravens staff
http://www.baltimoreravens.com/team/...a-005cb923522d

Martz retired from the NFL correct.

Jimmy Raye is an assistant coach with the Bucs
http://www.buccaneers.com/team/coach...0-fa991a211f65

Mike Johnson was only an OC for 1/2 a season, yet, Alex actually threw 18 TDs with Johnson as OC, so not sure why you'd throw him under the bus. But you are technically correct, as he became the OC then interim HC for UCLA.

Mike Singletary - LB and assistant coach with the Vikings.

You got 2 out 6 right!

and yet, mike singletary, and mike nolan have no recovered nor been serious canidates for coaching jobs since their firing. Mike nolan is actually coaching on his 3rd team after stops with denver, and miami, mike singletary, just worthless. Mike johnson was okay, but the point is, that none of the coaches that were there, are heavily sought after by other franchises. Good post. I repped it. But, can we at least agree that harbs and nolan are the biggest reasons for any success out of alex smith? Which originally was the point....

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by Darien25

Yeah, I'm not sure what to think about the guy. He's recruiting my son to play
football at this small college in Durango. Last year Arkansas and this year Ft. Lewis College. He doesn't seem to stay anywhere very long.

For reals? Oh, Dude.

First off, he's a swindler. He lost all of his money in "bad" real estate deals. He failed to tell the A.D. at Arkansas that he was having financials issues, was being sued by multiple entities and was soon declaring bankruptcy.

Look, I have absolutely no problem with people that have made poor financial choices and are in dire straits. But to take over a major college program that was reeling from a prior coach that had serious improprieties and poor behavior, Smith was negligent in his responsibilities.

Good luck with your son. If he's been recruited once, he'll be recruited again.

[Ming the Merciless]

What is the MOST Alex Smith can do for this team? Whats his upside? Call that X

What are we missing out on by not taking the best QB in this draft, and starting to develop him? What is the upside of this person.........Call that Y

What did we give up in terms of draft picks? Call that Z.


If X = Y+Z, or more.....Then fine....

I don't see how that is possible , personally...X just isn't a big enough number to cancel out Y and Z.......

Of course, if we DO end up with a top QB out of this draft somehow, then this will matter much less....

[opposition]

Originally Posted by Alex Smith Fan

and yet, mike singletary, and mike nolan have no recovered nor been serious canidates for coaching jobs since their firing. Mike nolan is actually coaching on his 3rd team after stops with denver, and miami, mike singletary, just worthless. Mike johnson was okay, but the point is, that none of the coaches that were there, are heavily sought after by other franchises. Good post. I repped it. But, can we at least agree that harbs and nolan are the biggest reasons for any success out of alex smith? Which originally was the point....

These guys are good coaches they were just not prepared to be NFL head coaches. I think both could be successful somewhere now that they know what to expect. Both were in completely over their heads.

[Mav]

Originally Posted by opposition

These guys are good coaches they were just not prepared to be NFL head coaches. I think both could be successful somewhere now that they know what to expect. Both were in completely over their heads.

i personally think the biggest attribute to being a great head coach, is the ability to adapt. something that bill bellicheat has shown, jim harbs has already shown, john harbs, and tom coughlin. Mike nolan might change, but singletary, he is what he is. fire and brimstone, and he wants winners. its just him.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by opposition

These guys are good coaches they were just not prepared to be NFL head coaches. I think both could be successful somewhere now that they know what to expect. Both were in completely over their heads.

I think Mike Singletary will never be able to control his emotions, so he'll never be a good head coach.

Mike Nolan, like Norv Turner, is an excellent X's and O's guy, but not a leader or head coach.

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by Beeker

Thanks for the assists y'all, and no, I will NOT rape my family members.

So, you are looking for volunteers to rape your family members?

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by TheOtherRedTeam

Is Alex better than, worse than, or equal to Cassel? That depends on your point of view, and which criteria you select. Do you just look at the last two years, the last 4 years, or full body of work? It depends on your point of view.

I will say Reid chose Alex over Cassel because Alex has 3 years of experience in a WCO (2005, 2011, 2012), while Cassel was drafted and groomed for the Parcells style offense. As a matter of fit, Alex over Cassel. (and yes, I realize Parcells was a defensive guy, but he always had his hands on the offense) But I digress...

Some facts, stats, and a look into Alex vs the various notions about him:

Pre-Harbaugh
From 2005 thru 2010, Alex had a new OC almost every year. But not just a new OC, but a different offensive system. During the Steve Young years, and even the Garcia years, the 49ers went through numerous OCs, but they always kept the same Bill Walsh playbook as a basis, and each OC added or subtracted to it. Until 2004, when Dennis Erickson threw it out, and that was that. Since being drafted, Alex had WCO in 2005, Norv Turner's Coryell's offense in 2006, a weird WCO/Coryell offense administered by a OC who was former DB in 2007, Martz Air it out philosophy in 2008 (although Alex missed that season with an injury), Jimmy Raye's just hand it off to the RB and pass it to the TE philosophy in 2009, Raye for part of the season in 2010, then Raye was fired part way through the season.

So many fans give Alex a break for not just a turn over in OCs, but having completely different offensive philosophies every year, and wish for him to get a chance in some consistency. Others say, well, yeah, but his lack of a chance to be developed is not a reason to keep trying. There is something to be said for starting fresh (a notion I notice many Cheifs fans agree with).

With Harbaugh
During 2011 season the 49ers scored 35 total TDs:
17 passing from Alex
1 passing from Aikers on ST
14 Rushing (including 2 from Alex)
2 from Ginn on returns
1 on a pick 6 by Carlos Rodgers

Alex threw 5 INTs
The defense recorded 23 Ints
The team was +28 in turn over differential.

The concern I would have for the Chiefs is that in 2011, the 49ers defense had 23 INTs, and 38 total takeaways (23 int + fumbles recoveries), yet, Alex only threw 17 TD passes.

That is .739 TD passes per defensive INT. And only 1 TD pass per 2 defensive turn over (yikes).

The other concern is Alex took some 44 sacks in 2011, even with a good O-line.

In 2012, it got a bit better:
13 passing TDs from Alex
The defense had recording about 10 INTs when Alex went down. So his TD passe s per INT were in positive territory. Although it's noteworthy alex had already throw 5 INTs in 1/2 a season in 2012, after having only thrown 5 INTs all season in 2011. He had taken 24 sacks, so he was on pace to end


There is a discussion between "Alex just wins games" and "the defense carried the 49ers."

Breaking down the 2011 season, where the Alex lead 49ers went 13-3, and beat the Saints in a very memorible playoff game:

A look at the 2011 season:
1)Hawks: Alex had a single TD pass, Aikers had 4 FGs, and then in the 4th qtr, Ginn had both a kick off return and then punt return for TDs that won the game.

2) Cowboys: loss

3) Bengals: Offense only scored 13 points, but Bengals turned the ball over 3 times. 49ers take a saefty to helo run out the clcok (the same play the Raens used against them in the Super Bowl) 49ers win 13-8.

4) Eagles: Eagles had 3 turn overs, including Ronnie Browns now infamous fumble near the goal line, and Justin Smith's strip of Jeremy Maclin prevented the Eagles from a last minute score. Also the Eagles missed a FG. 49ers win by one point.

5) Tampa Bay: This game was a true Alex domination in a blow out win. To the point, the back up QB got mop up duty.

6) Lions: Alex Smith was absolutely clutch in the 4th qtr, making an incredible TD pass with the game on the line, but only after committing and INT and fumble earlier in the game. 49ers win by 6 points.

7) Browns: The Browns fumbled 5 times, plus Colt thrown an INT. 49ers offense scores 2 TDs.

8) Washington: 49ers score 1 Td, Redskins commit 3 turnovers.

9) Giants: Eli throws 2 INTs, 49ers score 2 TDs, Giants come back ends when Justin Smith blocks Eli's 4th qtr pass.

10) Arizona: The Cards commit 5 turnovers, including 3 INTs. Alex 2 TDs.

11) Ravens: Loss

12) Rams: solid win against a 2 win team.

13) Arizona: Loss

14) Steelers: 49ers face a very injured Big Ben, and the Steelers commit 4 turn overs.

15) Hawks: 49ers win on 4 FGs, a rushing TD, zero passing TDs. 19-17 final score.

16) Rams: Decent win over a 2 win team.

Post season:
17) The famed win over the Saints, 49ers INT Brees twice, and forced 3 fumbles. Saints turning the ball over 5 time total. Yes, alex was money in the 4th qtr, and no one can ever take away his incredible performance. But if it wasn't for the defense, the Saints win well before the clutch performance has a chance.


Every win last season, save the Tampa beat down and the two wins over the hapless Rams, were heavily reliant on defense and the opposing team turning the ball over.

There is a thought that, well, Alex didn't need to throw a lot of Touch downs because the 49ers often played with a lead, and his job was to hold the lead and risk a turn over in an attempt to run up the score. There is some truth to that in some games, but the evidence shows the 49ers won by more than 7 points in 7 of 13 wins:
1) The 1st Seahawls game were 2 special teams TDs in the 4th qtr are solely resonsible for having a big lead
2) The Tampa Bay beat down who won 4 games all season.
3) The hapless Browns whom ended the season 4-12
4) The Redskins ( 8 point margin of victory) whom ended the season 5-11
5) Rams, whom ended 2-14
6) Steelers who committed 4 turn overs as Ben was very injured
7) Rams again.

In 6 of the 49ers wins, Alex was not nursing a multiple score lead.
The Eagles, and Giants game in particular, ended with Justin Smith making a game saving defensive play. The Browns game required the 49ers punter to run out of bounds to help run out the clock.

Alex Smith only really had a dominate multiple point lead in 3 games, one against the 4-12 Bucs and two against the 2-14 Rams. You could argue the Steelers, but again, Ben was playing injured the Steelers turned it over 4 times

A quick look at 2012:
1) A Rodgers INT sets up Frank Gore's TD. Defense forces 4 inc to stop GB last minute come back.

2) A solid win over Detroit, but they only finished 4-12.

3) Loss to the Vikings.

4) An Epic beat down of the Jets, who weren't very good. Notable for Kaepernick coming on several plays and scoring. Oddly Alex had no scores of his own. Kaepernick scored on an option rushing play, Gore took a hand off from Alex in, Carlos Rodgers had fumble return for a TD, then in garbage time, Hunter had a hand off from Kaepernick.

5) A record breaking beat down of the Bills, who would get beaten down by several teams in 2012. Alex has 3 TD passes and throws for over 300 yards.

6) Loss to the Giants, where Alex threw 3 INTs.

7) A 13-6 win against the Seahawks.

8) The AZ game where Alex went 18-19 and 3 TDs. Often called his near perfect game, but even Alex admitted in the post game interview, he took sacks when he could have just thrown the ball away. He took 4 sacks for a 32 yards loss. His prefect game was not so perfect, but still, a solid win.

9) The now infamous Rams game where Alex got hurt.

2012 you certainly saw improvement from Alex, as well a steps back. He was hot at times, even if his two best games were against two really bad teams (Cardinals and Jets), but he was also cold at times, when he threw 3 INTs against the Giants in a dismal performance. His TDs were up, but his INT were up on there way up as well.

One could say, well, he was on pace for apprx 26 TDs to 10 INTs, which is technically true, but that is offset by the fact the 49ers had the Bears, Saints and Pats instead of the Jets and Bills in the 2nd part of the season.


As noted Alex has as many INT in 1/2 a season in 2012 as he had for all of 2011. Which is why I don't fully buy into the notion he doesn't turn the ball over.


The good: Alex is mentally tough. He's been boo-ed on the field, he's been thrown under the bus by more than once coach, he's had some awful seasons but he always came back to the 49ers with a smile and ready to play. He has even taken pay cuts and less than market rate contracts just to finish what he's started. His determination to be a winner and his loyalty to the team never waivers, no matter how bad it gets. He is clutch when he needs to be.

The Bad: He needs time to grasp an offense (which won't be so bad going to Reid). He needs time to develop chemistry with his WRs. He will get indecisive and take a sack. He has to be clutch in the 4th qtr due because he struggled to secure the win earlier.

Was he worth 2 picks? I predicted it would be one, either a single 3rd, OR a conditional pick based on playing time and level of success. I'm a bit baffled, given the full body of evidence and not just the cherry picked stats, that the trade is being reported for a 2nd and a conditional 3rd/2nd.

My gut says in the short term, Reid and Alex will work well enough together to win some games, and bring some respect to the Chiefs. I have my doubts about it working in the long run. Time will tell.

If somebody actually read all that I'll rape a puppy.