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Old 09-12-2013, 12:32 AM  
Kaepernick Kaepernick is offline
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QBR is complete and utter crap

Look at the stat line. How in hell can Andy Dalton beat any of these 3 guys in rating? He is smoked in passer rating but dominates QBR. It looks like the completion % is way too heavily weighted. That is all I can figure. I don't give a damn if he completed 80% to Peyton's 65%, there is no way in hell a guy with 7 TDs and 0 INTs should be trumped by a guy with 2 TDs and 2 INTs, especially with 180 less yards.

I realize QBR is complicated and that a game losing INT is weighted far differently than an INT in the first minute of a 50 point blowout. I realize a TD in garbage time is not rated the same a game-winning walk-off TD. That is the good news.

But this is just WRONG.

QBR is just pure and utter crap if it can't handle this kind of immense disparity. There is no way in any sane world that 2 TD/2 INT/282 yards beats out 7 TD/0 INT/462 yards. It just isn't possible.


QBR
91.8 - Dalton
89.8 - Kaepernick
83.6 - Peyton
70.0 - Rodgers


Passer Rating
141.1 - Peyton
129.4 - Kaepernick
102.6 - Rodgers
97.2 - Dalton


Stat Line
Peyton - 27/42 for 462 yards, 64%, 7 TDs, 0 INT, 3 sacks
Kaeper - 27/39 for 412 yards, 69%, 3 TDs, 0 INT, 2 sacks
Rodgrs - 21/37 for 333 yards, 57%, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 2 sacks
Dalton - 26/33 for 282 yards, 79%, 2 TDs, 2 INT, 1 sacks
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:16 PM   #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
I'm sure Jake made a few nice throws.

You need to stop actin' a fool. Over Jake will fall and Kaepernick will rise.
Yes, I'm sure Jake's 125 yards and 55% completion rate were incredibly impressive.
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:17 PM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MagicHef View Post
Yes, I'm sure Jake's 125 yards and 55% completion rate were incredibly impressive.
Do you disagree with my point that PFF has a more sound rating system than QBR or traditional QB rating?

Those systems take into account numbers and nothing else.
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:21 PM   #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
Do you disagree with my point that PFF has a more sound rating system than QBR or traditional QB rating?

Those systems take into account numbers and nothing else.
Yeah, probably.

Let me ask you (taking from your previous example): which is more valuable to a team, a screen pass that goes for 18 yards, or an 18 yard pass with no YAC?
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:22 PM   #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MagicHef View Post
Yeah, probably.

Let me ask you (taking from your previous example): which is more valuable to a team, a screen pass that goes for 18 yards, or an 18 yard pass with no YAC?
They're equally valuable in the course of a game.

However, when determining credit for a play, and what a QB should be praised for, an 18-yard strike into a tight window is far more praiseworthy.
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:27 PM   #65
Just Passin' By Just Passin' By is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
QBR and PFF are completely separate.

PFF actually takes into account things like degree of difficulty of a throw.

If QB throws a shitty pass and it goes for 50 yards, he doesn't get much credit for it.
PFF is a steaming pile of shit.
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:33 PM   #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
QBR and PFF are completely separate.

PFF actually takes into account things like degree of difficulty of a throw.

If QB throws a shitty pass and it goes for 50 yards, he doesn't get much credit for it.
And it has an even weaker correlation than QBR and Passer Rating..
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:33 PM   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
They're equally valuable in the course of a game.

However, when determining credit for a play, and what a QB should be praised for, an 18-yard strike into a tight window is far more praiseworthy.
Why? It seems like selling the down field pass to bring in pass rushers to make a screen successful deserves praise.

Do Palmer, Schaub, Stafford and Cutler deserve more praise for their passing performances than Peyton?
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:35 PM   #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Just Passin' By View Post
QBR and PFF formulaic stats are things to avoid.
yeah, one should listen to justblowin'cassle when it comes to QBs...
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:40 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by MagicHef View Post
Why? It seems like selling the down field pass to bring in pass rushers to make a screen successful deserves praise.

Do Palmer, Schaub, Stafford and Cutler deserve more praise for their passing performances than Peyton?
Probably because they made more difficult throws a greater percentage of the time.

It's just one ****ing game. It is possible for Carson Palmer to play slightly better than Peyton Manning in one week out of their entire careers.
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:43 PM   #70
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:46 PM   #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
Probably because they made more difficult throws a greater percentage of the time.

It's just one ****ing game. It is possible for Carson Palmer to play slightly better than Peyton Manning in one week out of their entire careers.
You agree that 242, 63.6%, 2TDs and 1 INT is indicative of a better performance than 463, 64.3%, 7 TDs and no INTs?

I'm not debating that it's possible for any of those guys to outplay Peyton one week. I just don't see it happening the week that Peyton happens to throw 7 TDs and 0 INTs.
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:52 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by MagicHef View Post
You agree that 242, 63.6%, 2TDs and 1 INT is indicative of a better performance than 463, 64.3%, 7 TDs and no INTs?

I'm not debating that it's possible for any of those guys to outplay Peyton one week. I just don't see it happening the week that Peyton happens to throw 7 TDs and 0 INTs.
This is why traditional QB rating is so flawed.

One of those seven TD passes was a freaking bubble screen that DT took to the house.

That's weighted a lot lower than a more difficult throw for the QB in PFF metrics.

If you want the most accurate QB rating system, it IS PFF. It's not perfect, but it's the best we've got.

It does awesome things, like tell us Matt Cassel actually sucked in 2010.
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Old 09-12-2013, 03:01 PM   #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
This is why traditional QB rating is so flawed.

One of those seven TD passes was a freaking bubble screen that DT took to the house.

That's weighted a lot lower than a more difficult throw for the QB in PFF metrics.

If you want the most accurate QB rating system, it IS PFF. It's not perfect, but it's the best we've got.

It does awesome things, like tell us Matt Cassel actually sucked in 2010.
Wow, great point. That only leaves 6 TDs.

Why does difficulty matter? If a QB plays a game with one shoe, it would be a lot more difficult than playing with two. He'd probably get a higher PFF rating.
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Old 09-12-2013, 03:02 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by MagicHef View Post
Why does difficulty matter?
Because quarterbacks who attempt and complete more difficult passes deserve higher ratings than those who do not.
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Old 09-12-2013, 03:03 PM   #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
Because quarterbacks who attempt and complete more difficult passes deserve higher ratings than those who do not.
What about the QBs that attempt and do not complete more difficult passes? Like Locker?
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