Chiefs vs Broncos predictions

[TLO]

I've enjoyed making these for games earlier in the year, so why not make one for the biggest game in recent Chiefs history?

What I hope happens

Charles has a monster game. He finishes the game with 26 rushes for 158 yards and a TD. He also catches 8 passes for 75 yards.

Alex Smith shows he has the ability to be more than just a game manager, throwing for 263 yards and two TDs. More importantly, he has no turnovers on the day.

The Chiefs defense and special teams come up big. Succop hits all 3 of his FG tries, including 2 from 50 plus yards. The Chiefs defense sacks Manning 5 times, causing a fumble on a strip sack by Derrick Johnson. Marcus Cooper returns a Manning INT for a TD.

Chiefs win 37-28

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Sunday night is the only "sure loss" I see left on the schedule.

This team just doesn't look like 2003. I just can't see them collapsing down the stretch.

I think we split with San Diego and lose to either Indy or Washington. I don't think we're the 2003 team, and I do think we have a better chance of winning in the playoffs than any time since 1995, but I also don't think we're a 15-1 or 14-2 team. We're still an offseason (and possibly a QB) away from that.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Manning hasn't ever played in the REAL Arrowhead, against a defense like this one.

True.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

You'll have to forgive me for not assuming that the Chiefs are going to finish 15-1 if they lose Sunday.

This is what I think is going to happen:

Denver beats KC sunday: tied, denver owns tie breaker
NE beats Denver (road), KC beats Chargers: KC one game lead
Chiefs beat Denver: KC 2 game lead
Denver beats Titans, Redskins beat Chiefs (road): KC 1 game lead
Denver beats Chargers, Chiefs beat raiders (road): KC 1 game lead
Denver beats Texans (road), Chiefs beat Colts: KC 1 game lead
Denver beats Raiders; Chargers beat Chiefs (road): tied at 13-3, denver owns tie breaker (strength of schedule)

(Redskins and Colts games are interchangeable to me; I think we lose one of them. The road game seems the most likely).

That's just a tossing poop at the wall prediction, of course things will probably go differently in the real world, but I have a feeling we're going to point back to a loss Sunday (if we lose...) as being a key to the season.

How about we make it a moot point and win.

That's the thing, you're starting off your hypothetical with a loss Sunday night. Even with that loss, there's all kinds of things that can happen.

If Denver loses Sunday night, try doing the same exercise for them.

As for your hypothetical, I'll take it. There is no way, under any circumstance, we want to go 13-3 and host a playoff game. NO WAY.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

I pointed out the schedules earlier. Denver's final games are I think significantly easier than ours. They have fewer divisional games (always tough...), and while we play the Colts at home and the Redskins on the road (both potential losses in my mind), they have the Titans at home and the Texans on the road (don't see them in any danger of losing either).

The Colts ****ing suck. They don't have a running game, they lost their best receiver in Reggie Wayne and their defense is led by a 32 year old that's slowing down. They were just pistol whipped at home by the Rams.

If the Chiefs lose that game, at Arrowhead, they have no business in the playoffs.

And the Redskins?

Either you're beat down from years of being a Chiefs fan or you're not watching any other team other than the Chiefs. There is no ****ing way I can look at either of those games and even believe there's a 5% chance of a loss.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

I think we split with San Diego

The Chiefs will not lose to the Chargers at Arrowhead. Period. They're a bad team that doesn't play well on the road.

The only way the Chiefs lose at San Diego on December 29th is because Reid is resting his starters for the playoffs. By that point, San Diego will have packed it in because they won't make the playoffs. The weather will be nice, the fans will be out of town for the holidays or hosting family members, blah, blah, blah.

Either way, if the Chiefs lose to San Diego, it won't mean anything at that point.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

Either you're beat down from years of being a Chiefs fan or you're not watching any other team other than the Chiefs. There is no ****ing way I can look at either of those games and even believe there's a 5% chance of a loss.

I've been watching a Chiefs team that can't sustain drives or finish offensive possessions with TDs and has to rely on field position gained from turnovers as well as return touchdowns to score enough points to barely win games.

Now, I don't think there's anything "fluke-y" about the 9-0 start, but I also don't believe the blueprint they've used is one that can be sustained or relied upon through 16 games. If this team is going to win more than 13 games, it will require a marked improvement on offense. And I don't have a reason, at this point, to believe that's going to happen.

In fact, if things stay the way that they've been, I think there's actually a real, albeit unlikely, possibility that they finish 12-4 or even 11-5.

[htismaqe]

As long as they don't finish 13-3, I'm good.

[mr. tegu]

Denver clearly has the most pressure on them in this game. It isn't even be a debate.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

I've been watching a Chiefs team that can't sustain drives or finish offensive possessions with TDs and has to rely on field position gained from turnovers as well as return touchdowns to score enough points to barely win games.

And apparently, you haven't looked around the rest of the NFL.

Originally Posted by keg in kc

Now, I don't think there's anything "fluke-y" about the 9-0 start, but I also don't believe the blueprint they've used is one that can be sustained or relied upon through 16 games.

Yet, the Broncos can sustain 43 points a game?

Grass is always greener.

Originally Posted by keg in kc

If this team is going to win more than 13 games, it will require a marked improvement on offense. And I don't have a reason, at this point, to believe that's going to happen.

And I disagree. The Chargers defense isn't good. The Colts defense isn't good. The Broncos defense isn't good. The Raiders and Redskins are garbage.

The Chiefs won't go undefeated but with their defense, they won't need to suddenly score 30 a game to win.

Originally Posted by keg in kc

In fact, if things stay the way that they've been, I think there's actually a real, albeit unlikely, possibility that they finish 12-4 or even 11-5.

Nonsense.

[duncan_idaho]

If the Chiefs win in Denver Sunday, it's hard to see them NOT winning the division.

But if they don't... I could see 2 and possibly 3 more losses from this group:

Home vs. Denver
Indy
@Washington
@San Diego

Indy's spirit might be crushed... Tavon Austin pretty much beat them single-handedly on Sunday. Not counting on that just yet, though.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

But if they don't... I could see 2 and possibly 3 more losses from this group:

Home vs. Denver
Indy
@Washington
@San Diego

You clearly haven't seen any of those teams play this season, especially the Colts since they beat the Broncos.

Washington is 3-6. They're awful. I've already explained the San Diego game.

[DaneMcCloud]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Denver clearly has the most pressure on them in this game. It isn't even be a debate.

Denver has to play a tough Chiefs team in 20 degree weather Sunday night, then head to New England and Kansas City in successive weeks.

Even if the Chiefs lose Sunday, they'll send Peyton Manning to New England in worse shape than he is currently, then will have to face the Chiefs and the Arrowhead crowd the following week.

At his age, I wouldn't be surprised to see him miss a game before the season's over.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

And apparently, you haven't looked around the rest of the NFL.

Yes Dane, because ignorance is the only reason anyone could possibly have a perception that differs from your own.

Yet, the Broncos can sustain 43 points a game?

Where did I say that?

(Answer: nowhere)

The Chiefs won't go undefeated but with their defense, they won't need to suddenly score 30 a game to win.

Again, where did I say that?

I don't think they'll need 30 points a game. I do think they'll need an offense that's actually consistently contributing to the team's time of possession, that isn't leaving big plays on the field every week, and isn't trying to cover a wholesale ineffectiveness under the cloak of "winning field position".

What I'm saying is that the offense, at some point, is going to have to contribute to some of these wins. That doesn't mean scoring thirty points. Although it may occasionally mean scoring 23 or 24 or even 27. Gasp. So many points.

If they don't, if things stay as they have been, I think it's pretty likely that they lose some games that you and I both think they should win. Hell, that's without even considering the possibility of the defense having an off week.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

The Chiefs won't go undefeated but with their defense, they won't need to suddenly score 30 a game to win.

Absolutely agree with this.

[Dinny Bossa Nova]

Dontari Poe had a good game against Dallas' starting quarterback. Hali sacked Eli twice. I don't know if Denver's OL is ranked very high. I just have a feeling Hali and Poe are going to have big days, and Poe will send Peyton to the bench.

Is Jacksonville's defense any good? Peyton had a tough day against them. He completed three passes to Washington's defense, and doesn't seem to be "risk-adverse." Hali and Poe can make things difficult even if they aren't getting their hands on him. Peyton doesn't seem to play well rattled. I hope at some point his focus on getting the refs lined out causes some problems, as well.

As far as our offense goes, it would be great if this is the coming out party for all the stuff Andy has "kept under wraps", but I think it will be more like our OL finally plays up to the level of 5 Mini-Ditkas, allowing the offense to contribute just enough to help us to go 1-0 this week.

I have no idea what the final score will be. Peyton is kinda like two touchdowns just by showin up. Our D seems to turn likely TDs into field goals and INTs to Pick6s. Our O is not arena type. Succop is money.

Chiefs win 23-17?

(I know, that's why I never make predictions.)

Dinny