Gasoline at $4 Coming to a Pump Near You, Unfazed by Rising Tab

[Donger]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=afOlUzd30YOo

Pretty alarmist, IMO, but possible.

Spoiler!

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Whether it's $50 to fill up your Prius or $130 for the Ford Expedition, $4-a-gallon gasoline is coming to a pump near you.

Fuel prices are rising at a pace not seen since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita knocked out a third of the U.S. oil refining industry in 2005. Gasoline consumption is climbing twice as fast as last year and will accelerate when summer travel begins late next month.

``What we're surprised by is the increased demand,'' said James Mulva, chief executive officer at ConocoPhillips, whose refineries from California to New Jersey produce 56 million gallons of gas a day, enough to meet 14 percent of the country's needs. ``Even though the price of gasoline is up, the demand is up,'' he said in an April 12 interview in Houston.

Population gains and U.S. economic growth are causing an increase in fuel purchases, according to Orlando, Florida-based AAA, the nation's largest organization for motorists. The U.S. economy will expand at a 2.4 percent annual pace in the second quarter, up from 1.8 percent in the first three months, according to the median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Gasoline use is rising almost 5 percent above the five-year average.

Americans are resigned to higher prices, says David Pursell, a principal with Pickering Energy Partners, a consulting firm in Houston.

``Last year, we had pump prices well over $3 for the summer and gasoline demand was up,'' Pursell said in an interview. ``Would $4 gasoline cause demand contraction? I think it will, but I also thought $3 gasoline would.''

Pump Prices

Gasoline inventories, measured by the days of demand they will cover, are at the lowest level in two decades for this time of year because of refinery fires, power failures and maintenance work oil companies failed to complete in 2006. No new U.S. refinery has been built in three decades, increasing the strain on existing plants.

Pump prices in the U.S. may increase to $4 a gallon from a nationwide average of $2.87 today, especially if hurricanes threaten Gulf of Mexico refineries, says Peter Beutel, an analyst at Cameron Hanover Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, who helps industrial consumers manage energy costs.

``Hurricanes are always the huge wild card,'' said Beutel. ``We're all praying for a year like 2006 rather than 2005.''

The June-to-November Atlantic Ocean hurricane season may produce 17 tropical storms, with nine reaching hurricane force and four becoming major hurricanes whose winds exceed 111 miles per hour (179 kilometers per hour), London-based forecasters at Tropical Storm Risk said. Some of the storms will strike the Gulf Coast this year after a benign 2006, AccuWeather.com predicted.

Inflation Risk

Higher pump prices will make winners of refinery owners such as ConocoPhillips, San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc of The Hague. Shares of Valero and Sunoco Inc., whose only business is refining, are rebounding after a decline at the end of last summer.

The increase in fuel costs threatens to quicken inflation and restrain consumer spending in the U.S. An appreciation to $4 a gallon would add more than $10 for a driver who fills the 12- gallon tank of a Toyota Motor Corp. Prius. The owner of an Expedition, a Ford Motor Co. sport-utility vehicle with a 34- gallon capacity, faces an increase of almost $40.

Many Americans have no choice but to drive more, says Christopher Knittel, an economist who studies fuel consumption at the University of California in Davis.

More Commuters

``We live farther from our jobs than we did in the 1970s, and with the rise of dual-income households, we now have two people who drive those distances every day,'' Knittel said.

Consumers also do more driving for things such as taking children to soccer practice, which they are unlikely to quit, he said. The U.S. population has increased 1 percent a year in the past decade to 301 million in 2007, adding to demand for gasoline, economists said.

Rising fuel prices make it less likely that Federal Reserve policy makers, who have cited inflation risks for the past year, will cut interest rates to spur economic growth. Before the hurricane-induced peak in 2005, U.S. gasoline topped out at $1.42 a gallon in March 1981, or $3.21 when adjusted for inflation, according to the Energy Department.

Economies in Europe and Asia are less likely to be hurt by gasoline prices because fuel already is subject to high taxes designed to encourage conservation. A gallon of unleaded costs about 3.25 pounds a gallon ($6.49) in the U.K., and in Japan it's 130.3 yen per liter ($4.16 a gallon).

$4 Barrier

U.S. consumers will get little relief on gasoline prices from Europe this year, unlike 2005, when oil companies shipped more across the Atlantic after the hurricanes. Europe's gasoline inventories in February were 114.2 million barrels, down 11 percent from two years earlier, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. The drop in Europe was almost twice the 5.7 percent decline in U.S. supplies in that time.

``Just as we used to think $3 a gallon was an impenetrable barrier, now it's $4,'' said Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business in College Park and former chief economist for the U.S. International Trade Commission. Gasoline at $3.50 is likely, Morici said, and a conflict with Iran or any event that disrupts crude supplies may push it to $4.

Pump prices rose 33 percent in the past 11 weeks, the fastest rate of gain since a six-week, 34 percent rally to the record $3.069 in September 2005, Energy Department data show.

Bodman's `Worry'

U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman in an interview last week said the national average pump price could break the record this summer. While his agency's official forecast is for gasoline to peak next month at about where it is today, hurricanes, refinery closures or crude oil supply cuts may send prices higher, he said.

Higher prices are ``a legitimate worry,'' Bodman said. ``We have trouble spots all over the world'' that could boost crude oil prices. ``We're in a very tight situation.''

Spending on fuel in the U.S. consumes half as much household income as in the early 1980s, which means gasoline would need to reach almost $6 a gallon to have the same effect on the economy as in 1981, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Storage tanks at U.S. refineries, terminals and ports hold enough gasoline to cover almost 22 days of domestic demand, 8.2 percent less than the five-year average and the lowest for this time of year since the 1980s, Energy Department figures show.

Shortages

Valero-owned filling stations in Denver and Colorado Springs, Colorado, ran dry after a Feb. 16 explosion and fire shut the company's McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas. A day earlier, a blaze at an Exxon Mobil Corp. plant in Nanticoke, Ontario, slashed output, resulting in shortages and higher prices across eastern Canada.

The McKee shutdown strained supplies so much that ConocoPhillips postponed maintenance at its Borger, Texas, refinery north of Amarillo to prevent shortages in the region.

``Refineries are becoming more complex,'' Mulva said in the Houston interview. ``What we're finding is it's more difficult keeping reliability up with more sophisticated pieces of equipment that are highly integrated.''

Tesoro Corp. of San Antonio, the second-largest refiner in the western U.S., said first-quarter refinery use dropped because oil companies delayed until this year maintenance that could have been done in 2006. The portion of U.S. refining capacity that was in operation in the first quarter declined to 87.3 percent from 88.9 percent a year earlier, according to Energy Department data.

`Refineries Blow Up'

``Prices will depend entirely on whether we have a couple of refineries blow up,'' said Philip K. Verleger, an economist who runs a consulting firm in Newport Beach, California. ``It's almost impossible we'll get to $4 a gallon if all the refineries run well this summer. But if something happens and there are problems, then anything's possible.''

The average share gain for Valero, Tesoro and six other oil-refining companies is 26 percent this year, outperforming the 4.1 percent gain for Exxon Mobil and a 4.7 percent increase for the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

The shares will continue to rally, said Paul Carlson, who helps manage $3 billion at HGK Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.

``Refiners are doing very well these days,'' said Carlson, whose holdings include ConocoPhillips, the second-biggest U.S. refiner. ``There will be lots of demand for any new refining stocks.''

`Back in Favor'

As recently as August, investors were selling oil refiners on concern an economic slowdown would slash fuel demand in the U.S., the world's largest energy market. During seven weeks last August and September, Valero shares fell 29 percent, wiping out $12 billion in market value.

``Refining is very much back in favor,'' said Douglas Ober, who helps oversee $2.3 billion at Baltimore-based Adams Express Co. ``Even with higher prices, we haven't seen any substantial cutback in demand. They're cranking out as much of this stuff as they can, and we're throwing it in our tanks as fast as we can.''

The margin earned from processing crude oil into fuels rose to $24.68 a barrel on April 11, the highest since right after the hurricanes in September 2005. The margin has since retreated to $22.12 a barrel, still about double the five-year average.

``It'll be a fairly tight gasoline market all through the summer,'' said Robert Hinckley, an analyst at Rochdale Securities in New York.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by xbarretx

yes my friend, if all else fails i hope this lets the spec buyers of oil realize (once there bubble pops) that monies could be made by investing in energy alternatives.

especially once the resession hits

good conversation by the way

Indeed. I'm actually slowly starting to believe that crude is going to pop, and these speculators can go back to from wherever they came.

[xbarretx]

Originally Posted by Donger

Indeed. I'm actually slowly starting to believe that crude is going to pop, and these speculators can go back to from wherever they came.

kk, so ill listen to your avatar and think "OIL BUBBLE BOOM" as in pop not growing

[Donger]

Originally Posted by xbarretx

kk, so ill listen to your avatar and think "OIL BUBBLE BOOM" as in pop not growing

He's thinking of a different type of boom...

[xbarretx]

Originally Posted by Donger

He's thinking of a different type of boom...

its ok, ignorance (on occasion) is bliss

[Donger]

National retail average is now $3.10, unprecedented at this time of year.

Pump price to jump 20 cents next 2-3 weeks: government

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumers could pay record gasoline prices for the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday with pump costs expected to climb another 20 cents over the next two to three weeks, the government's top energy forecaster warned on Monday.

Guy Caruso, who heads the U.S. Energy Information Administration, said not all of the recent jump in crude oil prices has been reflected in motor fuel costs which now top $3 a gallon in many parts of the country, about 80 cents more than a year ago.

"We haven't seen the full pass-through (of high oil prices) yet," Caruso told reporters at a briefing on oil market conditions held at Energy Department headquarters. "I would say what's in the pipe right now (for gasoline) is about another 20 cents."

If the projected gasoline price materializes it would be the most consumers have ever paid to fill up at Thanksgiving and could break the all-time high of $3.22 a gallon set last May.

The national average retail pump price has already jumped by 25 cents since mid-October, reflecting soaring crude oil costs, which for U.S. oil hit a record $98.62 a barrel last week.

The price of crude accounts for about half the cost of making gasoline.

So far, healthy gasoline imports from Europe and weaker driving demand for this time of the year has helped soften some of the price spike, Caruso said.

Caruso said high prices are the result of strong global oil demand and tight supplies. "There's very little cushion in the market ... consumption outpacing production," he said. "We've seen steadily declining (oil) inventories."

OPEC ministers are scheduled to meet in early December to review their oil policy. Karen Harbert, the assistant energy secretary for policy and international affairs, said the Bush administration has not received any messages from OPEC officials on whether the group will increase output.

"We hope they will take action when it's necessary to ensure there is a much more calm and mutually beneficial (oil) marketplace," she told reporters at the same briefing.

Caruso warned that if the group does not boost oil production levels, crude oil prices will stay "well above" $80 a barrel and push gasoline costs higher during next spring's busy driving season.

[xbarretx]

Originally Posted by Donger

National retail average is now $3.10, unprecedented at this time of year.

Pump price to jump 20 cents next 2-3 weeks: government

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumers could pay record gasoline prices for the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday with pump costs expected to climb another 20 cents over the next two to three weeks, the government's top energy forecaster warned on Monday.

Guy Caruso, who heads the U.S. Energy Information Administration, said not all of the recent jump in crude oil prices has been reflected in motor fuel costs which now top $3 a gallon in many parts of the country, about 80 cents more than a year ago.

"We haven't seen the full pass-through (of high oil prices) yet," Caruso told reporters at a briefing on oil market conditions held at Energy Department headquarters. "I would say what's in the pipe right now (for gasoline) is about another 20 cents."

If the projected gasoline price materializes it would be the most consumers have ever paid to fill up at Thanksgiving and could break the all-time high of $3.22 a gallon set last May.

The national average retail pump price has already jumped by 25 cents since mid-October, reflecting soaring crude oil costs, which for U.S. oil hit a record $98.62 a barrel last week.

The price of crude accounts for about half the cost of making gasoline.

So far, healthy gasoline imports from Europe and weaker driving demand for this time of the year has helped soften some of the price spike, Caruso said.

Caruso said high prices are the result of strong global oil demand and tight supplies. "There's very little cushion in the market ... consumption outpacing production," he said. "We've seen steadily declining (oil) inventories."

OPEC ministers are scheduled to meet in early December to review their oil policy. Karen Harbert, the assistant energy secretary for policy and international affairs, said the Bush administration has not received any messages from OPEC officials on whether the group will increase output.

"We hope they will take action when it's necessary to ensure there is a much more calm and mutually beneficial (oil) marketplace," she told reporters at the same briefing.

Caruso warned that if the group does not boost oil production levels, crude oil prices will stay "well above" $80 a barrel and push gasoline costs higher during next spring's busy driving season.

which would have "Mr Recession" calling you on the phone right?

i find it very odd that pre war price of oil was about 32 bucks.....now...it is giving 100 the old "hows ya father"

whats your take on this Donger? yes i know the donger needs food but that can wait

[Donger]

Originally Posted by xbarretx

which would have "Mr Recession" calling you on the phone right?

i find it very odd that pre war price of oil was about 32 bucks.....now...it is giving 100 the old "hows ya father"

whats your take on this Donger? yes i know the donger needs food but that can wait

What's my take on what?

[xbarretx]

Originally Posted by Donger

What's my take on what?

Oil Prices Passes $92 on OPEC Chatter
Wednesday November 14, 10:07 am ET
By Pablo Gorondi, Associated Press Writer
Oil Prices Jump As Investors Parse OPEC Chatter and Buy Back Into the Market After Declines

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071114/.../oil_prices_67

*quick blurb*

High oil prices were unlikely to fall significantly, International Energy Agency Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said.

"In the medium-to-long term, our energetic forecast (sees) very high prices again, I don't say $100 but our function is that the current average level of $65 ... may continue. It will not go down to $20-30," Tanaka said in Rome on the sidelines of the World Energy Congress.

"The market is sending a very strong signal that we need more oil, we wish this will happen, but certainly the decision is for the producers," Tanaka added. "I'm not saying that $100 is right, but high energy price is a fact of life, and we have to live with that."


which contradicts


Oil Off More Than $3 on Demand Forecast
Tuesday November 13, 5:35 pm ET
By John Wilen, AP Business Writer
Crude Futures Fall to Near $91 After IEA Cuts Demand Forecast and Iran Hands Over Documents

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071113/oil_prices.html?.v=24

------------------------------------

*quick summary*

prices are hurting demand.

*******************
if you ask me that shows theres a bubble b/c the only way prices can stay high is by trying to buy it up. so more buyers and sellers are cannibalizing each other

[Donger]

I wouldn't be surprised if the current price is reducing demand. But, the chances of a net global decrease are still very slim, IMO.

[Pushead2]

For the first time ever it cost me over $60 bucks to fill up my Envoy. I was alittle shocked by it.

[xbarretx]

Originally Posted by Donger

I wouldn't be surprised if the current price is reducing demand. But, the chances of a net global decrease are still very slim, IMO.

i agree due to the exponential growth rate of "certain" countries. however, the raise in demand doesn’t justify the 300% increase in the price of oil over the past oh....5 years or so.

there will come a point when buyers and sellers cant cannibalize anymore b/c the false luster that made oil attractive is that it was low (compared to now!) so it could of and did go up UP UP. but lets say oil does go to 100....well to be realistic theres only so much more it can go before oil implodes b/c its price renders it worthless.

as the result of the speculative bubble the price of gas is flowing to consumers.........prices will continue to rise (yes i know, im mr obvious) however. since most of this country makes less than 50k a year and the middle class is being pounded by bad government with wrong priorities....there is a price that says..i cant afford to buy gas. which either means...you quit your job and find another and taking a pay cut makes thigns worse...or you walk to work, use public transportation (if we ever get it......) or you (meaning the US/world consumers) go into a large amount of debt tryign to fund fuel for daily necessities (i.e. work) if that ladder happens then kiss the US econ goodbye as the debt will implode on us all, the dollar will be less than worthless and the economy will grind to a screeching halt faster then the crowd covering there ears ,who saw Rosanne Barr (or Arnold) sing the Star Spangled Banner.

This goes perfect with mr Ben (i hate the economy) bernanke who seems to think that continious injections of low interest funds into the ECONOMY can somehow not spark inflation.

[xbarretx]

Originally Posted by Pushead2

For the first time ever it cost me over $60 bucks to fill up my Envoy. I was alittle shocked by it.

i wish 60, i have spent over 80 before. my wife forced me to get a trailblazer b/c she wants to have that illusion of safety.........

we rarely drive that now and rely heavily on our infiniti (smaller car)

[Frosty]

Originally Posted by Pushead2

For the first time ever it cost me over $60 bucks to fill up my Envoy. I was alittle shocked by it.

Same for me when I recently put $36 in a freakin' Prizm. At least it lasts me all month.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by xbarretx

i agree due to the exponential growth rate of "certain" countries. however, the raise in demand doesn’t justify the 300% increase in the price of oil over the past oh....5 years or so.

there will come a point when buyers and sellers cant cannibalize anymore b/c the false luster that made oil attractive is that it was low (compared to now!) so it could of and did go up UP UP. but lets say oil does go to 100....well to be realistic theres only so much more it can go before oil implodes b/c its price renders it worthless.

as the result of the speculative bubble the price of gas is flowing to consumers.........prices will continue to rise (yes i know, im mr obvious) however. since most of this country makes less than 50k a year and the middle class is being pounded by bad government with wrong priorities....there is a price that says..i cant afford to buy gas. which either means...you quit your job and find another and taking a pay cut makes thigns worse...or you walk to work, use public transportation (if we ever get it......) or you (meaning the US/world consumers) go into a large amount of debt tryign to fund fuel for daily necessities (i.e. work) if that ladder happens then kiss the US econ goodbye as the debt will implode on us all, the dollar will be less than worthless and the economy will grind to a screeching halt faster then the crowd covering there ears ,who saw Rosanne Barr (or Arnold) sing the Star Spangled Banner.

This goes perfect with mr Ben (i hate the economy) bernanke who seems to think that continious injections of low interest funds into the ECONOMY can somehow not spark inflation.

As has been said, this unusual present rise is due primarily to two factors: the weak dollar and speculation. The market justifies the price, as you know.

I realize that high gasoline prices will hurt Americans and I've speculated (perhaps in this thread) what price will force Americans to alter their driving behavior to the point that US demand falls. I think we are very close to that now.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Pushead2

For the first time ever it cost me over $60 bucks to fill up my Envoy. I was alittle shocked by it.

Wait until next week. I'd guess that the national average could reach $3.25-$3.30