Todd McShay's latest mock (01/16)

[BigRock]

I'd give the ESPN.com link, but it's an insider article. I'm just copying it from another board.

The deadline for underclassmen to declare for the NFL draft has come and gone. Now that we know who's staying and who's going, it's time for Scouts Inc.'s second mock draft. My first-round projection features 13 juniors, including No. 1 overall prospect Darren McFadden, who is not the No. 1 overall pick despite being far and away the best pro prospect available this year.

The top two picks in this version of the mock draft are defensive linemen and an offensive lineman comes in at No. 5 overall. Furthermore, those three are among a group of 12 linemen from both sides of the ball who project as first-rounders. Much will change between now and the draft in April, but here is how I see things shaking down at this early juncture:

Note: * denotes underclassman; ** denotes teams that will decide draft order by coin flip; *** denotes teams that could change position depending on playoff results


1. Miami Dolphins
Record: 1-15
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: MLB, OT, G, DT, CB, QB
Projected pick: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Dorsey's dominant performance against Ohio State in the BCS title game was a not-so-subtle reminder of his rare abilities. The 6-foot-1, 310-pounder was back to his disruptive ways thanks to a nearly five-week layoff that allowed him to rest a nagging knee injury originally suffered on a cheap shot in the Auburn game. That said, Bill Parcells, the Dolphins new VP of football operations, will make decisions on coaches, schemes and veteran personnel between now and the draft that could steer the team in a different direction. Dorsey is strong enough to adjust to a 3-4 defensive scheme, but it wouldn't play to his strengths as a penetrating interior force. It wouldn't be cost effective for Miami to spend No. 1 money on an interior lineman in that defensive scheme, either, so OT Jake Long and DE Chris Long are also options. Stay tuned.


2. St. Louis Rams
Record: 3-13
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: CB, DE, G, OT, OLB
Projected pick: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
The season-ending injury to perennial Pro Bowl OT Orlando Pace and the Rams' overall poor play along the offensive line this season make OT Jake Long a possibility with this pick. But assuming Pace returns to form in 2008, the Rams have a much bigger need along the interior of their offensive line, which can be addressed in free agency or in later rounds. Don't be surprised if St. Louis goes with the other Long here; Chris is not a prototypical edge rusher but is still a dominant playmaker with rare versatility and a motor that never quits. The Rams could solidify their defensive line for years to come by following 2007 first-round DT Adam Carriker with Long this season.


3. Atlanta Falcons**
Record: 4-12
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: QB, OT, DT, RB, S
Projected pick: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
This match is a no-brainer as far as I'm concerned. Ryan is the clear-cut No. 1 quarterback prospect in the 2008 class. In addition to solidifying the future of the all-important position for the Falcons, Ryan has the intangibles and character to help the franchise rebuild its tarnished image.


4. Oakland Raiders**
Record: 4-12
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OT, DT, WR, DE, RB
Projected pick: Darren McFadden*, RB, Arkansas
Running back isn't quite a pressing need, but McFadden is a rare talent and an unbelievable value if he slips to the Raiders here. If the team isn't high on McFadden, though, Oakland could use this pick to fill a hole along the offensive or defensive lines. It should also be noted that the Raiders are financially strapped and will not want to dish out top-five money one year after selecting QB JaMarcus Russell with the top overall pick. So, if McFadden is still on the board, don't count out the possibility of a blockbuster trade by owner Al Davis. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, an Arkansas alum, would certainly listen to offers.


5. Kansas City Chiefs**
Record: 4-12
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OT, DE, C, WR, CB
Projected pick: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
Quarterback is still a question mark, but the Chiefs' No. 1 priority this offseason should be solidifying their offensive front. Long is unquestionably the most dominant offensive lineman in the 2008 class and could help Kansas City achieve that goal in a hurry. He has the versatility to play either right or left tackle, and his combination of size, technique, athletic ability and a mean streak would improve the Chiefs' line almost immediately.