If the Chiefs go 8-8 or better 49ers get a 2nd round pick.

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

A third- or second-rounder from Kansas City, the remnant of the Alex Smith deal. Now it can be told: The second draft choice San Francisco will receive from the Smith deal will be K.C.'s second-rounder in 2014 if the Chiefs go 8-8 or better this season. It will be a third-rounder in 2014 if Kansas City is under .500 this season.

So: San Francisco will probably have first-, second- and four third-rounders next year. But if the Chiefs surprise, it'll more likely be a one, two twos and three threes. As we've seen, GM Trent Baalke is dangerous with extra picks in his hands. If Colin Kaepernick is very good, the Niners should be annual contenders for years with the picks laid out that way.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl...#ixzz2SWCd8Gea

[Halfcan]

Alex Bad Ass Smith has not even thrown a pass for us and he has been called every name in the book on here. lol

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Not true.

The window is open. But it will be closing by 2014. This team isn't as young as you think it is, not by a long shot. The window was opening when Scooter took over the reigns and drove the team into a mountain.

4 years later all the young talent that came in over the last couple years of Herm's time here is approaching the end of their prime years.

This isn't a team that should be rebuilding, but it's definitely a team that should be operating with the knowledge that a rebuild will be necessary by 2015. And honestly, looking at this draft, I think that's exactly what they did. They went after Smith knowing that they need some base-level competency at the position in order to take advantage of the primes of their best players. They then used the rest of the draft on picks that many of us see as somewhat redundant picks, but on BPA guys that they realize will probably be needed to step in sooner than you think.

As I've taken a longer look at this draft, I think they did a very smart thing in how they approached it. This team isn't a young team anymore and Reid/Dorsey wisely approached it as a team starting from scratch.

I don't think we really disagree with much here. I don't think the team will need a rebuild if they draft and play free agency smart, which sounds like what you're saying at the end there.

The way I'm saying it is that the window that should have been opening during Pioli's reign is finally opening now and if the Chiefs make the right personnel moves they can both start to win now and continue to win for several years to come. It's not the kind of win now situation that took place in Vermeil's last years or that is taking place in Denver.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by -King-

Number of passes over 10 yards:

In 7 starts Kaerpernick had 81

In 9 starts, Smith had 56

Passes over 20 yards:

Kaepernick: 31

Alex Smith: 17

That statistical analysis of why this was such a bad move it's off the charts. Even the most zealous supporters have to resort to "maybe he'll turn the corner in his 30's".

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by patteeu

or that is taking place in Denver.

And this is where you lost me.

Why do you think Denver's window is any shorter than ours? Some of their best players are as young or younger than ours - Decker, Thomas and Miller being chief among them.

You're referring to Manning, obviously, but Manning probably has 2-3 more good years left before they have to deal with the QB position. Bailey's also probably only looking at another good year or two. But really folks - Hali's closer to that same place in his career than you want to believe.

The difference between the Chiefs and Broncos windows is not the duration of them, but just how wide open they are. The Chiefs will have to do everything right and catch a few breaks to win a SB (or even an AFC championship) with Alex Smith at the helm. The Broncos don't have nearly that thin a margin for error.

The Chiefs window is 2-3 seasons....so is the Broncos. You only think theirs is a 'win now' desperation window because they have much higher to fall from than we do. The Chiefs window, when it closes, will close the door on an era of 10 win seasons and hoping for nice bounces in the post-season. The Broncos, OTOH, will fall from 13 wins, bye weeks and prohibitive favorite status.

The Broncos are no more in 'win now' mode than we are - they're just better at it.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Wow. This season is going to be a lot of fun.

I'd love to think so but I smell less than the force with this one...

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

That statistical analysis of why this was such a bad move it's off the charts. Even the most zealous supporters have to resort to "maybe he'll turn the corner in his 30's".

Considering the bumbling fumble machines we have had at QB- Alex is a huge upgrade and was the Best available. He is our QB now- so calling him names and dragging up stats from years ago is meaningless. The only thing that matters is what he does now for the Chiefs. If he throws 50 yards a game with 0 turnovers and we WIN- that is better than anything Cashole did.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

Considering the bumbling fumble machines we have had at QB- Alex is a huge upgrade and was the Best available. He is our QB now- so calling him names and dragging up stats from years ago is meaningless. The only thing that matters is what he does now for the Chiefs. If he throws 50 yards a game with 0 turnovers and we WIN- that is better than anything Cashole did.

Those stats aren't form years ago. They're from last year. And that last part is just idiotic. If he throws for 50 yards, then that means he's holding the team back from their true potential. Only stupid people would be happy with that.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by -King-

Those stats aren't form years ago. They're from last year. And that last part is just idiotic. If he throws for 50 yards, then that means he's holding the team back from their true potential. Only stupid people would be happy with that.

I think he is trying a new semi-troll shtick hence the Alex "Bad-Ass" Smith.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by el borracho

Ah, I see the usual litany of excuses, what-ifs and crys that it was everyone else's fault. If only we would judge Smith on individual performance we would feel differently.

Ok, let's examine Smith's individual performance...

At his very best, Smith has produced:
About 200 yards per game and a personal record of 18 touchdowns in a season. I'm not sure how anyone can judge this production as anything other than pathetic in today's NFL. Smith doesn't even make the list for single-season passing touchdowns. He isn't even tied for 229th on the list... he doesn't appear anywhere on the list. In fact, doubling Smith's best year would only tie him for 16th on the list of single-season passing touchdowns. You would have to nearly triple his production to jump to 1st on that list. Tell me again why I should be excited to have a player like Smith at a cost of two very high draft picks.

Smith may be good enough to not lose games, but he is nowhere near good enough to carry a team to a Super Bowl. Smith is not a playmaker; he is the guy who will likely be just good enough to prevent the Chiefs from drafting a legit QB.

This, a thousand times this. To infinity.

I won't argue that Alex Smith is better than anything the Chiefs had on the roster last year. That's also dubious praise - kinda of like being the smartest kind on the short bus or the most compassionate person in patteau's household.

But it's a move with limited upside. Yes, It helps them win more NOW with the players here before they are washed up, but it only gets the team into the "win enough to scrape into the playoffs and maybe host a first-round game" territory. They're not going to make a serious postseason run with Alex Smith at QB sans him pulling a Gannon or sans the Chiefs defense turning into a killer unit (even better than the one he couldn't make a serious postseason run with in San Fran).

You don't build a consistent winner that can challenge for multiple postseason runs without an elite or franchise guy at QB. And by trading so much for Alex Smith, even if this leadership group is NOT hitching its wagon to Alex Smith, it is taking on an extreme opportunity cost.

If the Chiefs win an average of 10 games the next two years with Alex Smith, they're going to be drafting in the teens to early 20s. And without a second round pick next year, they're severely limited in what they can do in the draft. Say there's a guy like Roethlisberger that KC and Reid LOVE in next year's draft who's slipping to 10-12 in round 1. Without a second rounder, it's that much harder to move up and grab that guy.

Finding a franchise QB is hard. Alex Smith makes it harder in a lot of ways, because they're likely to win JUST enough to require serious flexibility or creativity or luck to go take "their" guy in the draft.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by -King-

Those stats aren't form years ago. They're from last year. And that last part is just idiotic. If he throws for 50 yards, then that means he's holding the team back from their true potential. Only stupid people would be happy with that.

My point was Winning is all that matters. I have never seen so much hate for a player that has not even thrown one pass yet-lol Our QB situation is 100% better than the last few years.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

My point was Winning is all that matters. I have never seen so much hate for a player that has not even thrown one pass yet-lol Our QB situation is 100% better than the last few years.

... And still not good enough to do anything worth writing home about.

[BlackHelicopters]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

My point was Winning is all that matters. I have never seen so much hate for a player that has not even thrown one pass yet-lol Our QB situation is 100% better than the last few years.

Winning fixes a lot.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

... And still not good enough to do anything worth writing home about.

So the Chiefs should have just kept what they had- or Over drafted a QB this year. Let their fans suffer through yet another year of horrible, pathetic QB play in hopes of maybe possibly drafting a QB next year?

We got the best QB out there and all people do on here is call him alice and wish nothing but bad luck on him and the team.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by Rausch

I'd love to think so but I smell less than the force with this one...

You misunderstand. This season will be a lot of fun because of these absurd predictions. I remember just a year ago when the Chiefs were going to win the division because Berry, Charles and Moeaki were all coming back.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

So the Chiefs should have just kept what they had- or Over drafted a QB this year. Let their fans suffer through yet another year of horrible, pathetic QB play in hopes of maybe possibly drafting a QB next year?

We got the best QB out there and all people do on here is call him alice and wish nothing but bad luck on him and the team.

Oh, come one. It's not like any of us are saying we hope he gets Theismanned or anything.

Side note: Does anybody have current contact information for Lawrence Taylor?

I would rather have seen them draft BPA, sign a middling QB in FA to place hold for a year or two, and take a shot at a QB in 2 or 3 this year (or 4 or anything other than UDFA), and then see what's available at QB next year.

If that means winning 5 games this year instead of 8, 9 or 10, oh well.