Royals Who has(d) better odds of making the playoffs? - Page 2

suzzer99 · 09-24-2013, 12:53 AM

The Chiefs heading in to week 17 of 2006 or the Royals on 9/24/13? Note: for the purposes of this thread a tie-breaker game for the WC is considered making the playoffs.

cosmo20002 · 09-24-2013, 09:25 AM

Who has better odds of making the playoffs--
2013 Royals or 2013 Chiefs?

Royals probably need to go 6-0 or 5-1, and have other teams lose several games.
Chiefs probably need to go 7-6.

I'd say Chiefs

whoman69 · 09-24-2013, 09:57 AM

the Royals have not been above a 10% probability since May 22

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/pro...p?ymd=20130924

Right now they have a 3% chance.

Chiefs in 2006 had to win and have three other teams lose. One of those teams was 9-6 going in (Broncos), the other two were 8-7 (Bengals/Titans). Bengals were playing a division rival in the Steelers. Titans were a big underdog against the Patriots. Broncos had a letdown game with a rookie QB and were under pressure of blowing a 7-2 start.

Molitoth · 09-24-2013, 10:08 AM

All of that luck, just to go to Indy and RRPP the entire game.

That was some of the worst and unimaginative playcalling I had ever seen.

suzzer99 · 09-24-2013, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

Who has better odds of making the playoffs--
2013 Royals or 2013 Chiefs?

Royals probably need to go 6-0 or 5-1, and have other teams lose several games.
Chiefs probably need to go 7-6.

I'd say Chiefs

No shit?

**alnorth** · 09-24-2013, 10:21 AM

Reposting this here, since yesterday, I've started to model the rest of this season every time the standings change.

OK, here's what I've got for today. I wound up at about 5.9%.

Maybe ESPN's odds are playing out the tiebreaker game, in which case I'm closer to what they have than baseball prospectus.

If we win out, then as of right now we're 50/50. If we lose one game, we're at about 14% (but that obviously will go up or down a lot based on what our opponents do).

Right now, 2 losses puts us somewhere above 1%, but its hard to tell if that was a fluke or not, because I only have 4 events to support that.

It is mathematically possible for us to make it with 3 losses, but after thousands of simulations now, I have not yet hit that event.

edit: Adding on to the above: A simple way to estimate getting past the 163rd game (maybe even a 164th game) and at least reaching the wild card game can be done by giving half credit for 2-way 2nd wild card ties, one-third credit for 3-way 2nd wild card ties, and 2/3 credit for 3-way 1st wild card ties. (all others get full credit)

If you do that, we're at about 3.1% to reach at least the wild card round, which is very close to ESPN's odds.

**HemiEd** · 09-24-2013, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

I decided I gave 1/4 of a shit and googled this:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

1.5%, so they are about the same.

If it were to happen, I doubt if Ned Yost's wife would have to tell him about it.

whoman69 · 09-24-2013, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Molitoth

All of that luck, just to go to Indy and RRPP the entire game.

That was some of the worst and unimaginative playcalling I had ever seen.

They were frauds anyway. Green was a shell of himself after the concussion. Huard was Huard. They rode Larry Johnson to death. Those Chiefs were 15th in scoring offense and 11th in scoring defense. They were just +4 in turnover differential, not outstanding on either side of the ball. Chiefs had a points differential of +16. The offense was run by Mike Solari who was neutered when during a pre-season game Herm threw him under the bus for actually trying to score a TD near the end of the half instead of settling for a FG.

The 2006 Chiefs were probably the worst playoff team in franchise history.

suzzer99 · 09-24-2013, 10:43 AM

1986 was a pretty bad team

Pasta Little Brioni · 09-24-2013, 10:49 AM

Your Time?

CaliforniaChief · 09-24-2013, 10:55 AM

This was actually an interesting question. Some of you have reading comprehension issues. The one thing I'll say apart from the long odds is what happens if the Royals actually get in. The Chiefs? We knew there was little chance of them going far. But I really think the Royals could make some noise in the playoffs if they got in, particularly if Detroit took out Oakland. KC has a winning record against both the Red Sox and Tigers this year. Oakland owns us, though.

09-24-2013, 12:53 AM
suzzer99 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: L.A. Casino cash: $2984284	Who has(d) better odds of making the playoffs? The Chiefs heading in to week 17 of 2006 or the Royals on 9/24/13? Note: for the purposes of this thread a tie-breaker game for the WC is considered making the playoffs.
Posts: 27,265

09-24-2013, 09:25 AM	#16
cosmo20002 Debunking your bullshit Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: KC area Casino cash: $5210315	Who has better odds of making the playoffs-- 2013 Royals or 2013 Chiefs? Royals probably need to go 6-0 or 5-1, and have other teams lose several games. Chiefs probably need to go 7-6. I'd say Chiefs
Posts: 52,592

09-24-2013, 10:08 AM	#18
Molitoth Mahomes Fanboi Join Date: Apr 2004 Casino cash: $2984969	All of that luck, just to go to Indy and RRPP the entire game. That was some of the worst and unimaginative playcalling I had ever seen.
Posts: 19,475

09-24-2013, 10:21 AM	#20
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57176239	Reposting this here, since yesterday, I've started to model the rest of this season every time the standings change. OK, here's what I've got for today. I wound up at about 5.9%. Maybe ESPN's odds are playing out the tiebreaker game, in which case I'm closer to what they have than baseball prospectus. If we win out, then as of right now we're 50/50. If we lose one game, we're at about 14% (but that obviously will go up or down a lot based on what our opponents do). Right now, 2 losses puts us somewhere above 1%, but its hard to tell if that was a fluke or not, because I only have 4 events to support that. It is mathematically possible for us to make it with 3 losses, but after thousands of simulations now, I have not yet hit that event. edit: Adding on to the above: A simple way to estimate getting past the 163rd game (maybe even a 164th game) and at least reaching the wild card game can be done by giving half credit for 2-way 2nd wild card ties, one-third credit for 3-way 2nd wild card ties, and 2/3 credit for 3-way 1st wild card ties. (all others get full credit) If you do that, we're at about 3.1% to reach at least the wild card round, which is very close to ESPN's odds. __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry Last edited by alnorth; 09-24-2013 at 10:32 AM..
Posts: 36,130

09-24-2013, 10:43 AM	#23
suzzer99 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: L.A. Casino cash: $2984284	1986 was a pretty bad team
Posts: 27,265

09-24-2013, 10:49 AM	#24
Pasta Little Brioni Consuming CP souls Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: U.S.A. Casino cash: $3998880	Your Time?
Posts: 68,488

09-24-2013, 10:55 AM	#25
CaliforniaChief #RIPAce Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $12422899	This was actually an interesting question. Some of you have reading comprehension issues. The one thing I'll say apart from the long odds is what happens if the Royals actually get in. The Chiefs? We knew there was little chance of them going far. But I really think the Royals could make some noise in the playoffs if they got in, particularly if Detroit took out Oakland. KC has a winning record against both the Red Sox and Tigers this year. Oakland owns us, though.
Posts: 17,319